WxWatcher007 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 931.9mb extrapolated on the latest pass with a 143kt FL wind. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Uh, is Erin now outside the cone? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Uh, is Erin now outside the cone? It is close, but I would say yes. At the very least it's on the FAR southern part of the cone pretty much moving west. Erin will do what she wants right now for the time being until the weakness in the ridge opens up. If anyone else wants to chime in great I am just comparing the NWS cone to the current satellite loops including water vapor maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago OI OI OI ERIN ERIN ERIN SCORE SAM CAT 5 GOALS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Erin's eyewall is now quite intense, noted by the persistent ring of CGs tracing it. It may be a while before outer banding consolidates enough to form an outer eyewall band, so continued deepening may continue throughout Saturday. As such, I don't think we have seen Erin level out. Another 15 to 20 mb drop in pressure is quite possible this afternoon. I expect Erin to reach Category 5 intensity by this evening prior to any leveling off and its first eyewall replacement cycle to start doing its thing. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Looking at satellite imagery this morning, you’d think this storm is somewhere just east of the Philippines. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Looking at satellite imagery this morning, you’d think this storm is somewhere just east of the Philippines. Especially given today’s date storms in the Atlantic are usually pathetic like a soggy Yorkshire pudding this time of year innit 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago The eye just moved into San Juan’s radar range and it is a perfect donut 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago We're very fortunate this CV hurricane developed at an initial higher lattitude as it passed through MDR. As luck would have it, Erin's track will avoid direct impacts on the Antilles, though we need to watch for training bands in the southern circulation causing potential flooding concerns in Puerto Rico and the DR/Haiti as it passes by to the north. Otherwise, there still remains some uncertainty as far as downstream impacts on far eastern Canada. I think Erin will pass far enough west now to avoid direct impacts on Bermuda. Not that they can't handle indirect impacts. Obviously, ocean swells and beach erosion for the US eastern seaboard from Florida to Maine will be an issue. Erin should eventually become a very large hurricane to produce large swells. But I think we are getting off quite lucky otherwise here. Erin is now an ACE machine to pump up stats prior to heading into peak season. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Now 925 mb (both extrap and dropsonde) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 160kt SFMR with 145 kt FL wind. We might have ourselves a 5 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Erin is now an ACE machine to pump up stats prior to heading into peak season. Due to Erin ACE is now rapidly rising with 2025 about to cross median (of last 75) and should cross mean tomorrow. 2025 could reach top 20 by Mon and top 15 by Tue or Wed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago The eye just moved into San Juan’s radar range and it is a perfect donut Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago That was a well-timed pass for the ages 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago FL was just shy of 150kts and with SFMR more than supportive of a 5 in both SW and NE eyewalls I personally think there’s enough for an upgrade. Min pressure tanking through the 920s also firmly supports it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Now 922 mb extrap, 156 kts flight level wind. The inner core remains extremely tight, with no sign of any outer wind max beginning to develop. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago COME ON ERIN ALL OF WEMBLEY IS CHEERING FOR YA I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago What a freaking specimen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 926 drop according to tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Cat 5 at 11am? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 919 mb extrap, 156 kts FL wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Based on the last pass, I would be surprised if the NHC doesn't upgrade to at least 160 sustained and 922 mb at 11 AST. Keep in mind that Erin is embedded in a higher background pressure regime at its location, so anything around 925 mb or lower is definitely supportive of Category 5 intensity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 138 WTNT45 KNHC 161433 TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 Erin has continued to rapidly strengthen during the past 6 h and is now a category 4 hurricane. Reports from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 925 mb inside a 6 nm wide eye, and flight-level winds in the northern eyewall support surface winds in the 130-135 kt range. The initial intensity is increased to 135 kt, a 70-kt increase since 24 h ago. The aircraft, along with land-based radar data from Sint Maarten, report that an outer eyewall is starting to form. However, this has yet become apparent in the aircraft wind data. The hurricane has been moving a bit to the left of the previous forecast track with the initial motion of 280/15. The track guidance suggests that Erin will turn back to the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed during the next 6-12 h on the south side of a subtropical ridge. This motion should then continue through the weekend, taking the core of Erin to the north of the eastern Caribbean Islands through Sunday. After 36 h, the western side of the ridge is expected to weaken, due to a series of shortwave troughs moving through the mid-latitude westerlies, and that should cause Erin to slow further and make a gradual turn to the north. The track guidance models are in general agreement with this scenario, but there remain some differences on where, when, and how sharply Erin makes the northward turn. The new track forecast is shifted to the south during the first 12-24 h based on the initial position and motion, and it lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope. From 24-72 h there track has been shifted westward due to an overall shift in the guidance, and the track is similar to the previous track at 96 and 120 h. The development of the outer eyewall suggests that rapid intensification should end during the next several hours. However, Erin is expected to reach category 5 status before this occurs, and the new intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 145 kt. After 12 h, the environment becomes a little less favorable, with increasing northwesterly shear and possible dry air entrainment. This should lead to gradual weakening of the cyclone through 72 h, although superimposed on this trend will be fluctuations due to eyewall replacement cycles. After 72-96 h, the cyclone is expected to move into the westerlies where the shear is stronger, and a faster weakening trend is expected at that time. The new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance at 12 h and near the intensity consensus after that. Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough ocean conditions over the western Atlantic. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. 2. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands are likely in portions of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today through Sunday. Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeast Bahamas 3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week. 4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf by the middle part of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 19.7N 62.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 21.0N 66.8W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 22.3N 68.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 23.5N 69.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 24.9N 70.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 26.4N 70.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 30.6N 70.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 35.7N 66.4W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Ahh, Beven went a little conservative with the pressure and 155 sustained. I don't know if we're going to get another pass. Lamaroni.Edit: No, we are getting one more pass. Score. Erin should not be done deepening. This should be the money pass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago COME ON ERIN WE’RE WATCHING YOU WHILE WE’RE WAITING FOR THE RYANAIR TO FLY US TO IBIZA IT’S HAPPY HOUR IN MANCHESTER AIRPORT SPOONS SHOW US WHAT YOU’VE GOT ERIN Hurricane Erin Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...CATEGORY 4 ERIN STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.7°N 62.8°W Moving: W at 17 mph Min pressure: 923 mb Max sustained: 155 mph Disappointed the nonces over at the NHS didn’t claim cat 5 innit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emmett_Brown Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Pressure still dropping, around 916mb on that last pass 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emmett_Brown Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Officially Cat 5 now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago I respect the conservative nature of NHC. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago GOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLL rricane Erin Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... 11:20 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.7°N 62.8°W Moving: W at 17 mph Min pressure: 917 mb Max sustained: 160 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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