NJwx85 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Wow, naked swirl alert. The center is closed to getting exposed. No model had this getting sheared apart this badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Damn Erin looks like shit right now lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Damn Erin looks like shit right now lol lopsided lmao erin just go to istanbul at this point is she ever going to redeem herself from this crap or what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 8:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 Location: 25.2°N 72.2°W Moving: NW at 7 mph Min pressure: 958 mb Max sustained: 110 mphhttps://olorin.tropicaltidbits.com/satimages/goes19_ir_05L_202508191212_lat24.5-lon-71.8.jpg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 6 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: lopsided lmao erin just go to istanbul at this point is she ever going to redeem herself from this crap or what path looks familiar https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_geps_latest.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago I’ve gotta say I did not expect the system to get sheared apart to this degree. It looks like about 15-20kts of analyzed shear which certainly would be an inhibiting factor but shouldn’t be shredding it to the point that half the circulation is now exposed. There is no way this system is still a major and unless that shear relaxes it will continue to weaken because it does not look healthy at all. EDIT: I missed the 8 am where it was brought down to cat 2. 95 kts still seems generous based on satellite id wager it is closer to 85 kts at this time given 1/2 of the eye is now exposed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 23 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Surfers dream comin up Yes, you can track your fellow long islander’s surfing adventures at usersesh. https://discord.gg/umSDREbM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Hurricane Erin, despite weakening significantly in the past 24 hours, may have one more round of strengthening in its arsenal. With a fetch of tropical storm force winds extending out hundreds of miles into the ocean piling up water over three days of high tide cycles, water levels from NC to SE Virginia could rival levels during Dorian and Irene. The Delmarva Peninsula to southern NJ could see a top 5 water level on record as well.https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/too-close-for-comfort 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Recon had max FL winds of only around 85 kts we will see what this pass shows but man this thing is on life support as a cat 2 at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Also- pressure up to 960 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Interestingly 06z Euro initializes at 957 mb and still brings it down to 924 mb as it heads north of the Carolina coast... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Second pass actually was less impressive than first. FL winds never surpassed 85 kts and pressure was a few ticks higher. This is a cat 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Interestingly 06z Euro initializes at 957 mb and still brings it down to 924 mb as it heads north of the Carolina coast... I am curious as well. Given the current state and broad expanding wind field I would be SHOCKED if this strengthened significantly. That being said pressure falls might occur without winds coming up terribly much given the broad circulation. I’d say at this point a borderline cat 3 would be the ceiling but I’d lean more towards a Isabel-like cat 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I am curious as well. Given the current state and broad expanding wind field I would be SHOCKED if this strengthened significantly. That being said pressure falls might occur without winds coming up terribly much given the broad circulation. I’d say at this point a borderline cat 3 would be the ceiling but I’d lean more towards a Isabel-like cat 2 It is fighting dry air on the north side too. I would think the intensity forecast will most certainly come down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Good image of Erin, plus the SAL behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Erin has taken a real beating between the shear and drier air. Although the Euro tries to return Erin to some semblance of former glory, the HAFS bring down the pressure respectively, but the wind field expands without much in the way of significant intensification, to @NorthHillsWx's point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago NJ Governor having a press conference about preparations for Hurricane Erin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 54 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Interestingly 06z Euro initializes at 957 mb and still brings it down to 924 mb as it heads north of the Carolina coast... Regarding restrengthening potential: I just noticed this on the 0Z UKMET: it initialized it at 943 as of 8PM EDT last evening, then weakened it all the way down to 963 as of 12Z/8AM EDT this morning, and then restrengthens her starting today all the way down to 928 mb Thursday at 8PM EDT: HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 71.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.08.2025 0 23.9N 71.5W 943 84 1200UTC 19.08.2025 12 25.2N 72.6W 963 75 0000UTC 20.08.2025 24 26.9N 73.1W 953 79 1200UTC 20.08.2025 36 28.9N 74.3W 942 89 0000UTC 21.08.2025 48 31.6N 74.3W 936 100 1200UTC 21.08.2025 60 34.0N 73.3W 935 96 0000UTC 22.08.2025 72 36.2N 70.8W 928 94 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: NJ Governor having a press conference about preparations for Hurricane Erin Mr. Ed never met a TV camera he didn't like. Surprised he has not issued a State of Emergency yet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 44 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png Seems reasonable. May get sheared apart, but more likely will be steady state for it's closest approach to the coast before moving over cooler SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11am shows a tick east in the track and windfield as it brushes by NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 72.4W ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the North Carolina Outer Banks from Cape Lookout to Duck. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the North Carolina Outer Banks from Beaufort Inlet to Duck. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Duck to Cape Charles Light Virginia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeast Bahamas * Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * North of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light, Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Big burst of convection over the center in the past hour. Lets see if it can wrap back around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Big burst of convection over the center in the past hour. Lets see if it can wrap back around. Definitely wrapping up shear. Winds have responded on the last leg of recon, more supportive of a borderline cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago 12Z UKMET: like the 0Z this run restrengthens Erin to a peak Thu evening off NC, but by not as much as it gets down to 947 vs 928 on the 0Z: HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 72.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.08.2025 0 25.3N 72.1W 961 79 0000UTC 20.08.2025 12 27.0N 73.1W 960 71 1200UTC 20.08.2025 24 29.0N 73.8W 954 83 0000UTC 21.08.2025 36 31.7N 74.0W 950 84 1200UTC 21.08.2025 48 34.1N 73.1W 949 81 0000UTC 22.08.2025 60 36.1N 70.7W 947 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago 3 hours ago, Wannabehippie said: Good image of Erin, plus the SAL behind it. That is lot of SAL for this time of year. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 12Z Euro hour 24 isn’t nearly as strong as the 919 mb of the 6Z as this run gets it down “only” to 945 and is WNW of the 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 20 minutes ago Share Posted 20 minutes ago The core was essentially completely destroyed. Will be a little surprising to see it rebuild, but that convection is really impressive so we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago 5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The core was essentially completely destroyed. Will be a little surprising to see it rebuild, but that convection is really impressive so we'll see. The system is still really far South and there’s plenty of OHC to be had. If the shear relaxes enough there could be another period of steady intensification tonight. The fact that the core was destroyed might actually be better off because it was never the same after the first EWRC and was headed towards that hollowed out tire mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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