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July Discobs 2025


George BM
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First morning back on the deck for breakfast. A bit muggy but I will take the cooler temps, and in the shade on the backside of the house. Mr. J and I opted out of any fireworks last night. With both kids working pet sitting jobs we just stayed in. Good thing found out that one of our cats was not very happy with the “in" neighborhood mini display going off. 

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The weather has been spectacular lately. Got some trail riding in at the ‘shed and Schaeffer in the last couple days. Fairly dry, but enough dry mud (and just plain mud) spots to remind you that we’re having a classic DMV summer.

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13 hours ago, dailylurker said:

The next 10 days sure did go downhill. I'm so ready for the drought to return. Steamy, cloudy and swampy with rain and storms every day. Ugh

Typical MA summer. At least it doesnt look boring. Nothing worse than brutal heat and humidity with no trigger for storms.

Snippet from the latest Mount Holly AFD-

Quote

Turning unsettled with tropical humidity into the new week. Monday and Tuesday both have a threat of scattered to numerous thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. There will also be a risk of locally damaging wind gusts with any stronger storms.

Broad ridging across the region will retreat offshore into Monday as shortwave troughing develops across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. This shortwave trough will eject eastward to our north by late Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will be located offshore with return flow ramping up through Monday as tropical cyclone Chantal`s remnants dissipate across the Carolinas and southern Virginia. The remnants are anticipated to slide offshore to our south late Monday. While we are not expecting any direct impacts from Chantal`s remnants, its presence very nearby will result in the tropical environment that will be in place driving our locally heavy rainfall threat. This setup will result in a slight warming trend in temperatures, and a more significant increase in dewpoints and humidity by Monday and Tuesday.

By Monday, an upper jet streak to our northeast will place our region in a weak diffluence regime aloft. Thus with the increasing humidity and diurnally driven instability, we should experience scattered convection developing by midday. The convective environment won`t be particularly favorable for severe thunderstorms, however a few isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out. Vertical shear is relatively weak, only around 10-20 kts or so, and the instability profile is tall, skinny CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. PWats will be on the rise too, with the latest guidance indicating values ranging from 2.0-2.5" across much of the area. So a decidedly tropical environment with light flow could result in some locally heavy rainfall amounts and localized flash flood threat in addition to the water loaded downdrafts and localized severe threat.

 

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Nice spiral to the South. 

The seasonal models that had a small area of above normal preceip in the Northern Mid Atlantic are looking good so far.  

Also, home grown activity is already scoring as the Western Atlantic is very warm, thankfully not as warm as the marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea.     

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

20251871436_GOES19-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-1200x1200.thumb.jpg.430bcfe4493e37768ccff06cdef1a479.jpg

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

Nice spiral to the South. 

The seasonal models that had a small area of above normal preceip in the Northern Mid Atlantic are looking good so far.  

Also, home grown activity is already scoring as the Western Atlantic is very warm, thankfully not as warm as the marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea.     

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

20251871436_GOES19-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-1200x1200.thumb.jpg.430bcfe4493e37768ccff06cdef1a479.jpg

12z HRRR, 3km NAM, and 6z Euro look interesting for eastern parts of the region as the remnant low tracks ENE.

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