TheClimateChanger Posted Thursday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:35 PM Just now, TheClimateChanger said: I am having trouble loading NCEI's Climate at a Glance, seems to load better at the end of each day. But I think I did undersell this July a bit. Looking at the numbers, I think a lot of statewide means will come in significantly higher than shown by the urban stations. Rural and high elevation sites looked to be the most above normal, which aren't really reflected in the numbers. I didn't look at New England, but I think a Top 5 hottest July on record is on tap for New York (~4), New Jersey (~2), Pennsylvania (~4), West Virginia (~3), Virginia (~3), Maryland (~2 or 3) and other states. Ohio looked like around 11th place, but a top 10 is possible. Some of these mountainous locations were throwing up unprecedented minimum temperatures. PRISM has this at +1.464F nationally (relative to 1991-2020), which is a very impressive tally for July. I will note, however, that NCEI has tended to come in somewhat lower with anomalies in recent years (as a general rule). So that might be a little inflated. However, if it's in the ballpark with NCEI, we are well within striking distance of a record hot summer. The current record is +1.67F for JJA set in 1936 & tied in 2021. The thing about those summers is they were driven by DRY heat. 1936 was one of the driest years on record (e.g., hottest on record at Des Moines but also lowest mean dewpoint by a long margin). 2021 was driven by extreme anomalies in the arid western U.S. This is another beast altogether... the combination of heat & humidity might just be the most extreme since records have been kept. Here's what PRISM has for nationwide lows. We have a very good shot at setting a national monthly record here. Current record is around +1.8F (relative to 1991-2020). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted Thursday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:48 PM Boston, Hartford, PVD, ORH Not even top ten hottest 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted Thursday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:48 PM Looking like a I-84 NW rain event so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted Thursday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:50 PM Another missed rain event today. It’s so dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted Thursday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:51 PM Average lows didn't crack top ten lowest in SNE except HFD area was number 9. Lots of hype 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Thursday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:52 PM Humidity needs to be factored in as well, especially considering how humid it has been this summer and how often we had oppressive dewpoints. Not dismissing the temperature data and what the rankings are but in terms of capturing the entire picture, humidity needs to be factored in to provide full context and perspective. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Thursday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:54 PM I already listed rankings. Thanks. ORH is 9 or 10 if you take out the low elevation site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted Thursday at 03:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:07 PM For Connecticut, I expect the July mean to come in around 75.2F, which would make this the third hottest July on record. 2023 is tied for 7th hottest with 1999 (mean of 74.8F), and this July has averaged 0.435F warmer across the same basket of stations. Cooler weather today may impact this a bit, but probably at least 75F, which would still be 4th hottest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:15 PM 26 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Looking like a I-84 NW rain event so far It'll drop south later but it's alot slower than modeled a day or two ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Thursday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:15 PM may see a few pop up showers/thunder across the high terrain tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Thursday at 03:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:16 PM 26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Another missed rain event today. It’s so dry You guys are getting absolutely screwed with no rain out east. We have had a TON out my way in Westfield. Still cutting the lawn every four to five days and even then it's longer than i like my weeds to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Thursday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:17 PM 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: I already listed rankings. Thanks. ORH is 9 or 10 if you take out the low elevation site. Imagine if we had a 11th snowiest winter, we’d be throwing parades. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:17 PM 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: I already listed rankings. Thanks. ORH is 9 or 10 if you take out the low elevation site. ACATT absolutely cocked up this morning 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:18 PM Dews ! https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1950905058373042334?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Thursday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:21 PM Seems like the risk for any significant flooding is on the low side. It's looking like everything is going to be more progressive but where stuff trains you could develop some issues. But overall the rates shouldn't be anything too out of this world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Thursday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:25 PM 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dews ! https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1950905058373042334?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Love to see it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Thursday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:32 PM 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Imagine if we had a 11th snowiest winter, we’d be throwing parades. Well it would be a top five . By some accounts... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Thursday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:35 PM 2 minutes ago, kdxken said: Well it would be a top five . By some accounts... I would call a top 5 snow call that ended up being top 10-12 a good forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Thursday at 03:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:36 PM Just now, kdxken said: Well it would be a top five . By some accounts... I don't get the ire... well I do, DIT does that to some people after two months of back and forth. I mean for a seasonal monthly call, it's a matter of a few tenths of a degree. It was yet again, another very warm summer month relative to the long term trendline. Like I said, I gave in a while back to it is just how its going to be in the summer. Get ready for it again next summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted Thursday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:37 PM 41 minutes ago, dendrite said: I already listed rankings. Thanks. ORH is 9 or 10 if you take out the low elevation site. Well the Climate guy said area and Xmacis.rcc-acis.org doesn't lie. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Thursday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:37 PM 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I would call a top 5 snow call that ended up being top 10-12 a good forecast Yup, I can read Ray's postmortem write up in my head if that's what happened. There's a bit of personal ragging and other stuff baked into that over the past month or two though, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Thursday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:42 PM 47 minutes ago, dendrite said: I already listed rankings. Thanks. ORH is 9 or 10 if you take out the low elevation site. Today will also lower their MTD a smidge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted Thursday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:44 PM 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Today will also lower their MTD a smidge. Not sure. BOS was 85 at midnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Thursday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:46 PM When .3F or so decides top 5 or top 10...I ain't mad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Thursday at 03:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:51 PM 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I don't get the ire... well I do, DIT does that to some people after two months of back and forth. I mean for a seasonal monthly call, it's a matter of a few tenths of a degree. It was yet again, another very warm summer month relative to the long term trendline. Like I said, I gave in a while back to it is just how its going to be in the summer. Get ready for it again next summer. I don’t even cheer this excessive heat on. I don’t want to use AC. 80-85 with 60-65 mins is good for me. My pawpaws love the heat and humidity, but the other fruit trees hate it. But you can’t deny the trend in summers. Almost every one makes the top tier now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 03:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:54 PM 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: When .3F or so decides top 5 or top 10...I ain't mad. I ain’t mad atcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted Thursday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:01 PM 66/64 off a midnite high of 73. 0.4" of rain so far. I wonder if my rain gauge got moved to NJ overnight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 04:04 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:04 PM 27 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I don't get the ire... well I do, DIT does that to some people after two months of back and forth. I mean for a seasonal monthly call, it's a matter of a few tenths of a degree. It was yet again, another very warm summer month relative to the long term trendline. Like I said, I gave in a while back to it is just how its going to be in the summer. Get ready for it again next summer. wait ...what's the vitriol ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted Thursday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:07 PM Models seem to like two areas for the larger rain amounts. One in the northern Hudson valley/berkshires area and the other NYC on south. Will see if that’s what actually happens! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Thursday at 04:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:09 PM 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: wait ...what's the vitriol ? The 8-week battle raging on here daily between two camps was what I was referencing, ha. We'll call one the "blue team" and the other the "red team." 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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