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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Huh? Over the top can be big heat. 

That's typically how we get our biggest heat as a matter of climate fact...

The model of AN in NE has 2 origins:

1  MS Valley/Gulf

2  S/W U.S.  

These have different large synoptic circulation modes and are easily identifiable.   

1  is a WAR sourced.   The West Atlantic Ridge retrogrades west and bulges the westerlies N of New England.  This tends to collocate with a surface ridging which imparts a deep layer SW flow from east Texas and the Gulf region up and around the periphery of the high.  This type of heat seldom exceeds the low 90s, but will transport high theta-e ( elevated DP) air.   think 92/76

2  is Sonoran desert/elevation processed heat.  This is led by a +PNA that collapses into a mode change -PNA.  This ejects plume(s) of intense kinetically charged desert air, with exceedingly hot 850 mb type temperatures, EMLs and very tall mixing columns on the soundings.  The -PNA sends heights higher over the eastern mid latitude continent, and the ejected plume(s) of high heat get timed into that ridge expansion and trapped.  This kind of AN pattern is typically where we get our biggest T. DPs may start out diurnal cycles in the 70s, but will tend to mix down to the 60s.  think 100/66

Sometimes... you can hybridize between these two ...  For example, the retrograding WAR may be coupled with a --> -PNA....  but there is no certainty while that is happening that a plume will be timed.  So it's important in climate awareness to understand the mechanistic differences in how the heat is transported across the continent.   

That EPS mean above is indicating the #2 method of heat transport is favored - assuming that gaudy look actually materializes that way.   

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As much as I love the chill vibe that high dews and heat brings this time of year, I don’t mind a day like this. It’s very pleasant without a doubt, great for grilling and taking long walks on the beach. I think the heavy downpours yesterday really wrung out much of the moisture in the atmosphere. When it returns though and it will, our collective tooshies (and manbuns) shall be ready!

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