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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


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16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

no sea breeze at all today and no clouds either for that matter

what happened to that front thats supposed to make it rain from 5-7 pm lol

We have a SW or S wind off the water, it’s just not a strong wind and Jones Beach’s water temp is 77 today so less cooling influence. It’s disgusting on the barrier islands-I just saw a 90/78 in Long Beach. That’s all the S wind’s really good for today. 

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96/69. Flood Watch posted for tomorrow afternoon & Friday.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, including the following
areas, Northern Fairfield and Southern Fairfield, northeast New
Jersey, including the following areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern
Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen,
Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union, and southeast
New York, including the following areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn),
New York (Manhattan), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern
Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland,
Southern Nassau, Southern Queens and Southern Westchester.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Scattered to numerous instances of urban, poor drainage
and riverine flash flooding are possible. Localized severe
flooding may cause an elevated threat to life and property,
particularly Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- A widespread 1.5 to 3 inches of rain is likely, with
localized amounts up to 5 inches. Rainfall rates could exceed
2+ inches per hour.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
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4 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

96/69. Flood Watch up for tomorrow afternoon & Friday.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, including the following
areas, Northern Fairfield and Southern Fairfield, northeast New
Jersey, including the following areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern
Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen,
Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union, and southeast
New York, including the following areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn),
New York (Manhattan), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern
Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland,
Southern Nassau, Southern Queens and Southern Westchester.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Scattered to numerous instances of urban, poor drainage
and riverine flash flooding are possible. Localized severe
flooding may cause an elevated threat to life and property,
particularly Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- A widespread 1.5 to 3 inches of rain is likely, with
localized amounts up to 5 inches. Rainfall rates could exceed
2+ inches per hour.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Looks like our 2nd chance this summer for some part of the area going 5”+ with the record dew points and PWATS.

 

Stations that have recorded at least 5" of precipitation in a day in 2025 through July 19th. Most of these are CoCoRaHS stations.
bafkreiee6u6quhhpxeylfljgr3alsdaobw7fe7k
 
4
 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like our 2nd chance this summer for some part of the area going 5”+.

 

Stations that have recorded at least 5" of precipitation in a day in 2025 through July 19th. Most of these are CoCoRaHS stations.
bafkreiee6u6quhhpxeylfljgr3alsdaobw7fe7k
 
4
 

 

 

 

It’s about time for our August deluge. The warm 77 degree waters will give plenty of fuel. 

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2 hours ago, Sundog said:

The urban jungle used to average lows in the upper 60s in July. Up until the 1981-2010 averages it did. 

Even in rural areas, if your dewpoints are high you're not cooling off either. 

Everyone's warming up at night. The farmland went from 65 to 68 and the city went from 68 to 71, or something like that. So yea rural still averages in the 60s but not as low into the 60s. 

I get that, I'm not denying that it's warming.  But our summers that are more dewpoint driven are obviously going to to have higher lows as well, and the effect is more noticeable where a UHI is present.  Like last night I was in the 70s where some places in the city were literally still 90 or close.

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1 minute ago, JerseyWx said:

I get that, I'm not denying that it's warming.  But our summers that are more dewpoint driven are obviously going to to have higher lows as well, and the effect is more noticeable where a UHI is present.  Like last night I was in the 70s where some places in the city were literally still 90 or close.

Another issue is the winds stay up in the city at night while they go dead in rural areas, adding to the UHI woes.

 

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10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s about time for our August deluge. The warm 77 degree waters will give plenty of fuel. 

The high temperature potential gets a little lower following each deluge. We were 103°-105° back in June. Then the record rains a few weeks ago. So this warm up only made it to 101° -103°. Maybe when the temps rebound again after the first week of August the max potential will only be 97° -100°. We’ll see how it goes.

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54 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s about time for our August deluge. The warm 77 degree waters will give plenty of fuel. 

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if someone has a flash flood emergency. Meanwhile it’s the hottest day of the season at the beach. We have had 2 heat stroke incidents with people unconscious.

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22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if someone has a flash flood emergency. Meanwhile it’s the hottest day of the season at the beach. We have had 2 heat stroke incidents with people unconscious.

Yep, some of the backyard weather stations are pushing 80 degree dewpoints on the barrier islands.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NJC037-041-302130-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0200.250730T2039Z-250730T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
439 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Northeastern Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...

* Until 530 PM EDT.

* At 439 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Newton,
  moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to
           roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Newton, Blairstown, Franklin, Ogdensburg, Andover, Lake Mohawk, and
  Greendell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4102 7458 4101 7460 4090 7506 4105 7495
      4117 7462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 264DEG 7KT 4103 7482

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RCM

 

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Temperatures again soared well into the 90s across the region. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 95° (tied record set in 1949)
Islip: 96° (old record: 95°, 1988)
New York City-Central Park: 95°
New York City-JFK Airport: 95°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 99° (tied record set in 1988)
Newark: 100°

A break in the heat is now imminent. A front will cross the region this evening triggering some scattered showers and thundershowers.  A few areas could experience strong or severe thunderstorms.

Behind the front, it will turn cooler for an extended period of time. A widespread 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts of 3.00" or more is likely from tomorrow night into Saturday.

Generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through the first week of August. There are hints on the long-range guidance that a new round of heat could develop past August 10th.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +5.97 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.052 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal). 

 

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