LibertyBell Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: These smoke forecasts from the models vary quite a bit from run to run. So it’s much more of a trial and error process. Always have to check in the mornings to see how close to reality the HRRR and other models are doing. The clouds are way more of a problem than any smoke, it shot up to 95 here 30 minutes ago but it's been mostly cloudy since then and temperatures have dropped, even on a land breeze day, the clouds screwed us out of 100 today. Now I see why 100 degrees was much more common for the city and here between 1944-1966, it was much less cloudy and moist back then. I will say this is a busted forecast because NO ONE expected it to be cloudy today in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The clouds are way more of a problem than any smoke, it shot up to 95 here 30 minutes ago but it's been mostly cloudy since then and temperatures have dropped, even on a land breeze day, the clouds screwed us out of 100 today. Now I see why 100 degrees was much more common for the city and here between 1944-1966, it was much less cloudy and moist back then. I will say this is a busted forecast because NO ONE expected it to be cloudy today in the afternoon. None of the models had 100° today anyway. The heat was always expected to peak Tuesday into Wednesday. Smoke only becomes an issue for temperatures when it’s thick enough. Even then the effect would only be a degree or two unless we have June 2023 levels which was historic due to the magnitude and closeness of the wildfires in Canada. The current wildfires are further away in Canada so it hasn’t been as thick as 2023. But a few days ago the low level smoke was thick enough to drop the air quality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 Today and Wednesday (30th) are the only two days of the year where four years share the record high for NYC. Today (97) is 1892, 1931, 1949 and 1999. For Wednesday 30th (98) the four years sharing the record are 1917, 1933, 1940 and 1988. In between on 29th, 1949 (99F) has sole possession. There are eight days during the year where the record high is shared by three years. Two of these fall on Aug 18 and 19 during the next notable relatively cool spell for record highs (97 is tops for Aug 15 to 25, the two three-way ties are both 94). In between the two relatively cool intervals, July 31 to Aug 14 average record high is 99.8 F. Then again, from Aug 26 to Sep 3 the average returns to 100F, but most of those records are from two years, 1948 then 1953 (1929 had 99F on Sep 3). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I hope this is a sign of a new global pattern of reduced sea breezes. Maybe as we all heat up, oceans and land alike, sea breezes will be much less common. Well the ridge axis has been further west than recent years. Recent summers it has been east of New England with more onshore flow. So this is why places like JFK have seen more 100° days with the increased westerly flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 not to bad today dewpoint only in the mid 60's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 94 / 68 in / out sun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: None of the models had 100° today anyway. The heat was always expected to peak Tuesday into Wednesday. Smoke only becomes an issue for temperatures when it’s thick enough. Even then the effect would only be a degree or two unless we have June 2023 levels which was historic due to the magnitude and closeness of the wildfires in Canada. The current wildfires are further away in Canada so it hasn’t been as thick as 2023. But a few days ago the low level smoke was thick enough to drop the air quality. and when the smoke was very thick it dropped air temperatures by a few degrees.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Well the ridge axis has been further west than recent years. Recent summers it has been east of New England with more onshore flow. So this is why places like JFK have seen more 100° days with the increased westerly flow. yes hopefully it's a cycle that's resetting itself. there are many global cycles, probably many more than we know about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 92 with a dewpoint of 68 here right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 40 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Today and Wednesday (30th) are the only two days of the year where four years share the record high for NYC. Today (97) is 1892, 1931, 1949 and 1999. For Wednesday 30th (98) the four years sharing the record are 1917, 1933, 1940 and 1988. In between on 29th, 1949 (99F) has sole possession. There are eight days during the year where the record high is shared by three years. Two of these fall on Aug 18 and 19 during the next notable relatively cool spell for record highs (97 is tops for Aug 15 to 25, the two three-way ties are both 94). In between the two relatively cool intervals, July 31 to Aug 14 average record high is 99.8 F. Then again, from Aug 26 to Sep 3 the average returns to 100F, but most of those records are from two years, 1948 then 1953 (1929 had 99F on Sep 3). so much extreme heat in those years: 1944, 1948, 1949, 1953, 1955, 1966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: None of the models had 100° today anyway. The heat was always expected to peak Tuesday into Wednesday. Smoke only becomes an issue for temperatures when it’s thick enough. Even then the effect would only be a degree or two unless we have June 2023 levels which was historic due to the magnitude and closeness of the wildfires in Canada. The current wildfires are further away in Canada so it hasn’t been as thick as 2023. But a few days ago the low level smoke was thick enough to drop the air quality. Do you think EWR still has a shot at 100 today? It looks like everyone will fall a few degrees short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 93/77/105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 90/70 feeling like 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 Slow moving seabreeze today. It’s hung up just north of Sunrise Highway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 latest euro extends the heat wave through thursday 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 95/65 dews have dipped the last few hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 Note that some guidance doesn't show this at all for our area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 more comfortable feel today then it did yesterday.. it's never the heat it's always the dewpoint that matters in the summer.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 7 minutes ago, nycwinter said: more comfortable feel today then it did yesterday.. it's never the heat it's always the dewpoint that matters in the summer.. Temp 93, DP 68. That is pretty damn uncomfortable to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 57 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: 93/77/105 Dp at newark is 63. Same at many other stations. Why is your dp so high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: and when the smoke was very thick it dropped air temperatures by a few degrees.. The record breaking smoke back in June 2023 dropped the temperature by 5.4°F. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02214-3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 9 minutes ago, binbisso said: Dp at newark is 63. Same at many other stations. Why is your dp so high? Tons of rain the past few weeks..crabgrass galore..we have dipped to 74 dew now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 Euro now brings the 90s back early to mid next week. Looks like a break for a few days and then we go back to the heat. It's 94 with a dewpoint of 67 here right now. Doesn't feel terrible today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 93/67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 Up to 95. Doesn’t feel atrocious but still pretty damn hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Up to 95. Doesn’t feel atrocious but still pretty damn hot. Yeah, 2nd warmest summer on record so far for Long Island with numerous top 10s since 2010. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Warmest June 1st- July 27thClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-27 77.8 0 2 2025-07-27 75.9 0 3 2011-07-27 75.8 0 4 2024-07-27 75.6 0 5 2008-07-27 75.2 0 - 1948-07-27 75.2 46 6 2020-07-27 75.1 0 7 2016-07-27 75.0 0 - 2013-07-27 75.0 0 - 1994-07-27 75.0 0 8 1983-07-27 74.9 0 9 2012-07-27 74.7 0 - 1949-07-27 74.7 0 10 1999-07-27 74.6 0 - 1991-07-27 74.6 0 - 1952-07-27 74.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Warmest June 1st-July 27thClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-27 75.0 0 - 1999-07-27 75.0 0 2 2025-07-27 74.9 0 3 2024-07-27 74.3 0 4 2013-07-27 74.1 0 - 1994-07-27 74.1 0 5 2020-07-27 73.8 0 6 2011-07-27 73.7 0 7 2008-07-27 73.6 0 8 2019-07-27 73.5 0 9 1966-07-27 73.0 0 10 2014-07-27 72.9 0 - 1991-07-27 72.9 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 Surprisingly bearable outside. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 54 minutes ago, Nibor said: Surprisingly bearable outside. To who, Satan? LOL 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 28, 2025 Author Share Posted July 28, 2025 Don's pre-summer outlook of a statistically significantly warmer than normal summer looks like it will come to pass with June-July at KEWR top 6. Very good statistical call barring a chilly August. Waiting on a thread til tomorrow morning for two 100F days at KEWR, (for me unexpected in lae June), to be followed by a potential widespread 1-4" forum rainfall with iso 8"... EPS through 12z/28 cycle continues strong on this, though edging northward. I also have to think there has to be a stripe of svr near the boundary Thursday? Just too early for me to be sure the EPS is going to be mostly correct. From what I can tell, WPC is so far, accepting the EPS solution. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2025 Share Posted July 28, 2025 3 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Euro now brings the 90s back early to mid next week. Looks like a break for a few days and then we go back to the heat. It's 94 with a dewpoint of 67 here right now. Doesn't feel terrible today. 95 was my high with dews in upper 70s. Peak heat index was 108 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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