July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

so their equivalent of the Bermuda high stalled and created the marine heatwave and it's been happening every year for like 5-6 years now Chris?

Wow, if that ever happened here....

 

It’s part of the record subtropical ridge expansion this decade across the Northern Hemisphere.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Don, looking ahead to August, is there any respite from the heat and humidity? Seems that July has been brutal in recent years with a break in August and then return to hot weather in September.

I suspect that the first week of August could turn cooler and less humid for at least a time, as a powerful heat dome retrogrades to the Rockies. But above normal temperatures will likely return during the second week of the month. However, as that's still far in the future, the guidance can yet change.

[psv88]

Beautiful day today. Midnight high of 82, 75 now

[psv88]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Hoping for the South Shore desert to do its job next weekend. I need it to be dry in Patchogue for the Great South Bay Festival. Let's see what we can do to juggle the forecast around to make it happen

The lineup is amazing!! May go just to see pigeons playing ping pong 

[jm1220]

Figures on our low dewpoint day it gets cloudy. 

[lee59]

So much more comfortable today, 80 degrees here. Last night was one of the warmest nights I have seen in my area. It was actually great pool weather and the breeze was warm and made the temperature bearable.

[Dan76]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

The lineup is amazing!! May go just to see pigeons playing ping pong 

They do a great Godzilla!!

[winterwx21]

82 with a dewpoint of 59 here right now. Feels good out there.

I'm looking forward to early next week when dewpoints will go even lower. They might get down to the high 40s on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday it will be top 10 day of the year type of weather. 

Take advantage of the great weather early next week before the heat comes back late week. The Euro is saying we could hit 100 next Friday. That might be a little overdone, but it'll be at least mid to upper 90s. 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

The lineup is amazing!! May go just to see pigeons playing ping pong 

If you go I'll be easy to find, my wife has a booth in the vendor area. Look for the Looming Madness tent.

 

[Wannabehippie]

Gorgeous cloud free day in Riverdale, NJ.

 

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Gorgeous cloud free day in Riverdale, NJ.

 

best day here since late June 79/62

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

best day here since late June 79/62

Similar here, 81/63

[cleetussnow]

This cool spell is just in time - one of my mini splits took a shiz.  Under warranty thank Christmas.  The hvac firm is bringing me portable ACs as a loner so wow great service.  

[Sundog]

I must be in some local hot spot, all the stations are close to 84 degrees. 

The dewpoint is in the low 60s though, amazing how dry low 60s dewpoints can feel when they've been near 80 for days. 

[steve392]

81 but sun is strong still.  

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and warm. Highs will reach the lower and middle 80s. A shower or thundershower is possible in the evening or overnight as a warm front crosses the region.

Sunday will be steamy with highs in the middle and perhaps upper 80s. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening into Monday morning as a cold front moves across the region. There is some severe weather and excessive rainfall potential.

Behind the front, it will turn somewhat cooler and much less humid through the middle of next week. Monday through Wednesday should feature bright sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday morning should be in the 60s in New York City. Some outlying areas could see lows fall into the upper 50s on Tuesday morning.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. However, some of the guidance continues to show a brief surge of high heat late next week. The 12z ECMWF and EPS is particularly bullish with the potential heat.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +7.20 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.122 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.9° (1.4° above normal). 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

82 with a dewpoint of 59 here right now. Feels good out there.

I'm looking forward to early next week when dewpoints will go even lower. They might get down to the high 40s on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday it will be top 10 day of the year type of weather. 

Take advantage of the great weather early next week before the heat comes back late week. The Euro is saying we could hit 100 next Friday. That might be a little overdone, but it'll be at least mid to upper 90s. 

Next Tuesday it's going to be in the upper 70s.

We'll see about that 100+ next Friday, if it does get very hot again it'll only last 2 days like it did in June.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Tuesday looks like low to mid 80s with dews in the upper 40s. Probably the best we can expect

Tuesday could be in the upper 70s.

[lee59]

50s and 60s for night lows in the near future. That's more like it.

[Sundog]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Next Tuesday it's going to be in the upper 70s.

We'll see about that 100+ next Friday, if it does get very hot again it'll only last 2 days like it did in June.

 

 

Just keep the high dewpoints away. They make everything far more miserable than high heat does. 

[forkyfork]

the trend is your friend

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

best day here since late June 79/62

Dunno, 4th of July was gorgeous...

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Dunno, 4th of July was gorgeous...

agree july 04/05 were comfortable days..

[SACRUS]

Highs:

 

EWR: 87
ACY: 87
JFK: 85 * no intra hour highs again 2PM/8PM 6 hour max/min missing
ACY: 85
BLM: 84
TEB: 84
New Brnswck: 84
LGA: 84
ISP: 82
NYC: 82
TTN: 81

[lee59]

Still 81 at Newark, down to 70 here.

[FPizz]

17 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Still 81 at Newark, down to 70 here.

Yeah 66 here now.  81 at Newark, lol

[winterwarlock]

What's new?

 

Another Grey weekend

 

#yearwithoutasummer rolls on

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

95-100 degrees even for us over here?

Looks like a strong sea breeze especially South Shore. The 95°-100° heat potential later next week will probably be focused more in NJ. This doesn’t look as widespread or as warm as the late June record 100° to 105° warmth. So especially for spots like JFK, the late June heatwave will remain the strongest of the summer so far. 
 

 

[SnoSki14]

Secondary heat peak latter next week looks likely. If models continue to ramp up the ridging then more 100+ isn't out of the question 

[steve392]

69 degree's this morning.  Gorgeous morning!!!  Windows down cruising to work.