July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

The lineup is amazing!! May go just to see pigeons playing ping pong 

If you go I'll be easy to find, my wife has a booth in the vendor area. Look for the Looming Madness tent.

 

[Wannabehippie]

Gorgeous cloud free day in Riverdale, NJ.

 

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Gorgeous cloud free day in Riverdale, NJ.

 

best day here since late June 79/62

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

best day here since late June 79/62

Similar here, 81/63

[cleetussnow]

This cool spell is just in time - one of my mini splits took a shiz.  Under warranty thank Christmas.  The hvac firm is bringing me portable ACs as a loner so wow great service.  

[Sundog]

I must be in some local hot spot, all the stations are close to 84 degrees. 

The dewpoint is in the low 60s though, amazing how dry low 60s dewpoints can feel when they've been near 80 for days. 

[steve392]

81 but sun is strong still.  

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and warm. Highs will reach the lower and middle 80s. A shower or thundershower is possible in the evening or overnight as a warm front crosses the region.

Sunday will be steamy with highs in the middle and perhaps upper 80s. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening into Monday morning as a cold front moves across the region. There is some severe weather and excessive rainfall potential.

Behind the front, it will turn somewhat cooler and much less humid through the middle of next week. Monday through Wednesday should feature bright sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday morning should be in the 60s in New York City. Some outlying areas could see lows fall into the upper 50s on Tuesday morning.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. However, some of the guidance continues to show a brief surge of high heat late next week. The 12z ECMWF and EPS is particularly bullish with the potential heat.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +7.20 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.122 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.9° (1.4° above normal). 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

82 with a dewpoint of 59 here right now. Feels good out there.

I'm looking forward to early next week when dewpoints will go even lower. They might get down to the high 40s on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday it will be top 10 day of the year type of weather. 

Take advantage of the great weather early next week before the heat comes back late week. The Euro is saying we could hit 100 next Friday. That might be a little overdone, but it'll be at least mid to upper 90s. 

Next Tuesday it's going to be in the upper 70s.

We'll see about that 100+ next Friday, if it does get very hot again it'll only last 2 days like it did in June.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Tuesday looks like low to mid 80s with dews in the upper 40s. Probably the best we can expect

Tuesday could be in the upper 70s.

[lee59]

50s and 60s for night lows in the near future. That's more like it.

[Sundog]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Next Tuesday it's going to be in the upper 70s.

We'll see about that 100+ next Friday, if it does get very hot again it'll only last 2 days like it did in June.

 

 

Just keep the high dewpoints away. They make everything far more miserable than high heat does. 

[forkyfork]

the trend is your friend

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

best day here since late June 79/62

Dunno, 4th of July was gorgeous...

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Dunno, 4th of July was gorgeous...

agree july 04/05 were comfortable days..

[SACRUS]

Highs:

 

EWR: 87
ACY: 87
JFK: 85 * no intra hour highs again 2PM/8PM 6 hour max/min missing
ACY: 85
BLM: 84
TEB: 84
New Brnswck: 84
LGA: 84
ISP: 82
NYC: 82
TTN: 81

[lee59]

Still 81 at Newark, down to 70 here.

[FPizz]

17 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Still 81 at Newark, down to 70 here.

Yeah 66 here now.  81 at Newark, lol

[winterwarlock]

What's new?

 

Another Grey weekend

 

#yearwithoutasummer rolls on

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

95-100 degrees even for us over here?

Looks like a strong sea breeze especially South Shore. The 95°-100° heat potential later next week will probably be focused more in NJ. This doesn’t look as widespread or as warm as the late June record 100° to 105° warmth. So especially for spots like JFK, the late June heatwave will remain the strongest of the summer so far. 
 

 

[SnoSki14]

Secondary heat peak latter next week looks likely. If models continue to ramp up the ridging then more 100+ isn't out of the question 

[steve392]

69 degree's this morning.  Gorgeous morning!!!  Windows down cruising to work.  

[doncat]

First low below 70° here in 13 days with a 68° reading...some clouds moved in after 3 am popping temp back up to 70.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How does it get that hot without the sun? Most of the day was very bearable, no sun at all and very comfortable right up until 1 pm or so and then the sun came out and there was a surge of heat late in the day. And didn't we have a cold front come through-- all the forecasts were for a cooler night as the front passed and lower humidity and I even saw the word *refreshing* being mentioned.

July 5, 1999 was in a completely different class because it was over 100 that entire afternoon, as late as 6 PM.  Yesterday was more a case of a very late surge of heat, basically at the last moment.

 

The WAA actually peaked around 8-10 pm for the day with +20°C 850s arriving late. So we got that combined with downsloping and drying. It allowed the earlier low max at ISP to hold at 79°. That was the 3rd warmest low max ever at ISP.

Warmest Low Maximum Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1999	81
2	2006	80
3	2025	79
-	2019	79
-	2013	79

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

78 / 77 cloudy. Clouds and scattered showers later mainly south = low - mid 80s not much sun.   Clearing / hotter Sunday upepr 80s to low 90s in the hotter spots.   Front comes through tomorrow night isolated showers/storm overnight.    Drier week ahead cooler Mon - Wed before the ridge raises heights by Wed with heat , potentially stronger heat (95+) by the end of next week and next weekend.   Beyond there ridge is centered in the middle of the US with an overall warm - hot look.

 

7/19 : Cloudy, scattered showers
7/20 : Hot / humid scattered showers storms overnight into Monday
7/21 - 7/23 :   Dry / cooler (slightly below normal)
7/24 - 7/27 : Hotter - Strong heat potential 25 - 27.
7/28 - Beyond :  Overall Warm - Hot

 

[Sundog]

Are those clouds just west of the city expected to get here?

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 100 (2013)
NYC: 102 (1977)
LGA: 100 (2013)
JFK: 97 (1963)
New Brnswick: 101 (2012)


Lows:

EWR: 60 (1962)
NYC: 57 (1924)
LGA: 62 (2000)
JFK: 61 (1962)
New Brnswick: 52 (1923)


Historical: 

 

1850: Tropical storm to the east of DC caused trees and signs to be blown down and some buildings were damaged. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1886 - A hurricane from the Gulf of Mexico crossed Florida causing great damage from Cedar Keys to Jacksonville. (David Ludlum)

1886: The 1886 Atlanta Hurricane season was a very active year with ten hurricanes, seven of which struck the United States. During the evening hours of July 18th, a category 1 storm made landfall near Homosassa Springs, Florida. Damage was slight as the area was thinly inhabited. The hurricane weakened to tropical storm status south of Gainsville and emerged on the eastern side of Florida, south of Jacksonville during the morning hours of the 19th. This was the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the United States. 

 

1935: Boston, Massachusetts recorded the highest average one minute wind velocity from the northwest at 52 mph. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)
 

1960 - Cow Creek and Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, CA, reported morning lows of 102 degrees. The afternoon high at Greenland Ranch was 124 degrees, and the high at Cow Creek that afternoon was 126 degrees. The coolest low for the entire month for both locations was 82 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

 

1972: The record coldest July temperature was tied at Billings, MT at 41° (also occurred 7/4/1972). The high for the day was a chilly 47°, the only occurrence of a July high temperature less than 50°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1974 - A severe thunderstorm with winds to 80 mph and up to two inches of rain washed out four to five foot deep sections of roadway in Lake Havasu City, AZ. Three persons in a station wagon died as it was carried 3000 feet down a wash by a ten foot wall of water. (The Weather Channel)

1977 - Thunderstorms produced torrential rains over parts of southwestern Pennsylvania. Some places receive more than twelve inches in a seven hour period. The heavy rains cause flash flooding along streams resulting in widespread severe damage. The cloudburst floods Johnstown with up to ten feet of water resulting in 76 deaths, countless injuries, and 424 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1983: July 19, ........"The I-94 Derecho"....ND, MN, IA, WI, MI, IL, IN

1987 - Fifteen cities in the western and the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Winnemucca, NV, with a reading of 33 degrees. Flagstaff AZ reported a record low of 34 degrees. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in New York State and New Jersey. High winds and hail two inches in diameter injured two persons and caused considerable damage to crops in the Pine Island area of central New York State. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced more than five inches of rain at Red Cloud, including two inches in fifteen minutes. Torrid temperatures continued over California, with record highs of 115 degrees at Red Bluff and 116 degrees at Redding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley produced 5.50 inches of rain south of Alexander, AR, in just ninety minutes, and flash flooding which resulted claimed the life of one woman. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced 4.95 inches of rain in twelve hours east of Muncie. Eight cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Las Vegas, NV, with a reading of 115 degrees, and Phoenix, AZ, with a high of 116 degrees. The low that night at Phoenix of 93 degrees was the warmest of record for that location. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1993: In Winnsboro, SC, lightning hit a nearby tree and resulting debris fell on a car. The driver left the car to sweep debris away, saying “lightning never strikes twice in the same spot.” He was wrong. CPR saved him. The soles of his wife's shoes were also blown off. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2005 - Severe heat  gripped the region during early to mid-July. Las Vegas, NV tied their all-time record high temperature of 117 degrees, equalling the old record set on July 24, 1942.

2006 - The first of two severe thunderstorms hits the St. Louis area, causing the largest power outage in the city's history with over 570,000 people losing electricity.

2006: A derecho impacted a sellout crowd of almost 44,000 St. Louis Cardinals fans, packed into the new Busch Stadium. Winds of about 80 mph whirled around the St. Louis area, sending the fans running for shelter. The winds knocked out power and broke windows out of the press box. Nearly two minutes after the winds began at 100 mph, they stopped, and it started to rain. In all, about 30 people were injured at the stadium.


 

[SACRUS]

 

Euro similar to the CM C with ridge centered near MO in beyond next weekend / GFS further west.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Relatively much drier week outside of any showers today/tomorrow.  Looks very sunny Mon - Wed too.

 

[SACRUS]

 

See if this is the beginning of more Atlantic risks around the Atlantic RIdge