June Discobs 2025

[frd]

Can't wait, checked out the video and there are surfers out there presently getting some good wave action, as mentioed below the tide is coming in with a peak high tide in Southern NJ at 5:30 to  6:20 PM  today.

Surf zone summary :

 

Fun-size SSE swell has built in this afternoon. Patchy fog but fun chest high waves.

Low pressure tracking through the Northwest Atlantic sets up a fun pulse of mid period swell that moves in and peaks this afternoon That offers surf in the chest high range with some bigger sets likely at top spots as the tide pushes in.

Shape generally looks pretty fun but parts of Ocean County still are dealing with fog and low visibility. Winds look light most of the day setting up pretty clean/manageable conditions. Make the most of it.

 

https://northwildwood.com/north-wildwood-surf-cams/

 

[mappy]

Muggy out there. Went up to Glen Rock for their arts and brew fest and was sweatin’

[EastCoast NPZ]

.10" in the wee hours this morning.   Mostly sunny all day.  

[WxUSAF]

Forecast for tomorrow still pretty uncertain. Euro is a near washout with 2”+ and US models are like T-0.1” with scattered sprinkles 

[frd]

Sneaky broken line moving SE, better do dog walk now. OMG its steamy outside  

[stormy]

The Nam 12 and 3 are too juicy for western areas with the returning warm front during the next 24 hrs..      They may be right but IMO , sludge................... 

[WxUSAF]

Boundary approaching 

[Mrs.J]

0.15” from this morning. Dropped the oldest Ms. J off at Dulles for a trip up to Maine. She said it was quite a bumpy takeoff. Just made dinner and stepped out on the deck to see if we were eating out or in. Promptly decided to eat inside tonight. 

[frd]

.28 here from that line that went through.  

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z HRRR for Sunday.

[MN Transplant]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR for Sunday.

We are firmly in splotchy season now.

[Jrlg1181]

5 hours ago, stormy said:

The Nam 12 and 3 are too juicy for western areas with the returning warm front during the next 24 hrs..      They may be right but IMO , sludge................... 

Alot of rain seems to have fallen south of 64 the last 24 hours , southern Augusta / Stuarts Draft into Rockbridge.. Which seems to be the convective pattern down here the last 3 years - hence the crushing spring - mid summer Valley droughts the last couple years have been Waynesboro northward.... .09 last 24 hours here... Another cluster just popped in the same area... Thankfully the large synoptic events this spring have been a nice change...

[nw baltimore wx]

7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Forecast for tomorrow still pretty uncertain. Euro is a near washout with 2”+ and US models are like T-0.1” with scattered sprinkles 

I want the rain. It’s been a long week with a wedding and retirement celebrations. Worked all day at the brewery so a dark day inside is what I’d enjoy most. But that’s rare in June so I’m expect partly sunny and passing showers and storms.

[yoda]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
757 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

MDZ501-509-510-VAZ026>030-037>040-507-WVZ050-055-501>506-080800-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0009.250608T1100Z-250609T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Extreme Western Allegany-Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Albemarle-Greene-
Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Hardy-
Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
757 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, including the following
  areas, Eastern Garrett, Extreme Western Allegany and Western
  Garrett, Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle,
  Frederick VA, Greene, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page,
  Rappahannock, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Warren, and eastern West
  Virginia, including the following areas, Eastern Grant, Eastern
  Mineral, Eastern Pendleton, Hampshire, Hardy, Western Grant,
  Western Mineral and Western Pendleton.

* WHEN...From 7 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - -Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on
    Sunday as an area of low pressure tracks eastward and
    interacts with a frontal zone. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of
    rainfall appears likely, with localized totals up to around 5
    inches possible. Saturated soils and background high
    streamflow levels may enhance the threat for flooding.
  - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
    and preparedness information

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

 

[yoda]

Updated evening AFD from LWX explains reasons for the watch

SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Evening update: The main forecast change this evening was the
issuance of a Flood Watch for flash flooding for portions of the
Alleghenies, Potomac Highlands, Shenandoah Valley and Central
Virginia from 7 AM to 10 PM tomorrow. Within this corridor,
flash flood guidance is very low due to saturated soils and high
background streamflow levels following recent rains. East to
southeasterly 850 hPa flow to the north of the surface front
will also intersect the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies, potentially
leading to orographic enhancement of rainfall. A widespread 1 to
2 inches of rainfall is expected across this area, with
localized totals up to 5 inches possible. This rain will likely
be spread across multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
late tonight through tomorrow evening. For now, the Watch is in
effect where wet antecedent conditions and potential terrain
enhancements resulted in greater confidence regarding flash
flooding potential. The Watch may possibly need to be expanded
along the edges at a later time, but decisions for those
surrounding areas were deferred to subsequent shifts due to
uncertainty in the northeastward extent of the heavier rains
and/or higher flash flood guidance values. 

[Jrlg1181]

2 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Alot of rain seems to have fallen south of 64 the last 24 hours , southern Augusta / Stuarts Draft into Rockbridge.. Which seems to be the convective pattern down here the last 3 years - hence the crushing spring - mid summer Valley droughts the last couple years have been Waynesboro northward.... .09 last 24 hours here... Another cluster just popped in the same area... Thankfully the large synoptic events this spring have been a nice change...

Steady light rain has developed in the 25 min... Nothing major in the rain so far..... But significant occasional redish lightning with long lasting rolling thunder has developed...

[aldie 22]

Woke up to wet ground but only. 01 in the bucket

[WxUSAF]

9 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

We are firmly in splotchy season now.

Booo

6 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I want the rain. It’s been a long week with a wedding and retirement celebrations. Worked all day at the brewery so a dark day inside is what I’d enjoy most. But that’s rare in June so I’m expect partly sunny and passing showers and storms.

Euro caved overnight but still has more than some other guidance. 3k NAM has been insistent that today is dry for most of MD. We’ll see. Would like to keep the drought busting momentum. Next week looks mostly dry again, although next weekend seems potentially starting a wet period.

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Booo

Euro caved overnight but still has more than some other guidance. 3k NAM has been insistent that today is dry for most of MD. We’ll see. Would like to keep the drought busting momentum. Next week looks mostly dry again, although next weekend seems potentially starting a wet period.

I'd be ok if the 14th and 15th are really wet. Who wants to mow on fathers day 

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Booo

Euro caved overnight but still has more than some other guidance. 3k NAM has been insistent that today is dry for most of MD. We’ll see. Would like to keep the drought busting momentum. Next week looks mostly dry again, although next weekend seems potentially starting a wet period.

It seems our force field is back up. Back to the area between Richmond and DC getting swamped while everyone else gets scraps. The most lightning I've seen this year was from a thundersnow storm in January. It's been extremely boring this spring. I'd love to get a thunderstorm today. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

First bust of the summer?

[dailylurker]

It feels cooler and less humid than it did earlier. It feels like the stable air has made it to the lowlands. 

[Mrs.J]

The ground has remained damp from the .03” that came overnight. Had some farm sitting to take care of this morning then came home and planted some flowers. Going to head downtown for the Arts Festival but feels like it will be a sticky afternoon. 

[Eskimo Joe]

23 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

It feels cooler and less humid than it did earlier. It feels like the stable air has made it to the lowlands. 

There's a solid easterly flow advocating a decent marine layer across the lowlands.

[Jrlg1181]

Legitimately got surprised overnight, probably the best thunderstorm in a year or 2 here ... 1.25 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Radar not looking good for flooding rains today.  Have picked up .40" since overnight, though.

[Weather Will]

Light rain showers moving in.  
Heavier band rolling through now. I will take it!

[high risk]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Booo

Euro caved overnight but still has more than some other guidance. 3k NAM has been insistent that today is dry for most of MD. We’ll see. Would like to keep the drought busting momentum. Next week looks mostly dry again, although next weekend seems potentially starting a wet period.

    That Euro run yesterday was on the right track with the best chance of rain today being during the late morning / early afternoon along the warm front boundary.     That area of rain is there, but it's fairly splotchy and progressive, so while some localized areas will get soaked, it doesn't appear that widespread big totals are likely.

[yoda]

Hmmm

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0402
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1211 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and Northern
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081610Z - 082210Z

SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue
through this afternoon with an expectation that scattered
thunderstorms will develop and produce heavier rates. Given the
moist and sensitive antecedent conditions, the additional rainfall
is likely to result in some runoff problems and flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with regional radar data shows areas of moderate to locally heavy
rain falling over portions of western and southwest PA down
through the MD/WV Panhandles and into northern VA. This rainfall
is being driven by the arrival of a shortwave trough from the OH
Valley which is promoting a northwest to southeast corridor of
isentropic ascent and frontogenetical forcing along and just
poleward of a warm front lifting gradually northeastward into the
region.

Meanwhile, solar insolation is seen taking place farther west
across central and northern WV and western VA which is allowing
for some CU/TCU development over the higher terrain. Surface-based
instability is expected to continue to increase going through the
afternoon hours, and with convergent flow along the front and
orographic forcing over the higher terrain, there should be the
development and gradual expansion of some heavier shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next few hours. It should be noted
that moist low-level southeast flow is expected to become better
established into the Blue Ridge this afternoon as well, and this
may yield some locally more concentrated areas of convection in
these areas.

The environment is pretty moist and the 12Z RAOBs at KPIT and KIAD
showed 1.42 inch and 1.62 inch PWs respectfully which are at or
just above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. This overall
environment should favor at least above average rainfall
efficiency across the region and especially with some of the
forcing that will be occurring this afternoon in the warm layer of
the column.

Rainfall rates with the instability driven convective elements
this afternoon from southwest PA down through northern VA will
likely be quite high and capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour.
The 12Z CAM guidance suggests that some localized rainfall totals
by this evening may reach as high as 2 to 3+ inches where some of
the slower moving cells evolve.

Given the wet antecedent conditions and high rainfall rates,
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are likely.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

[Weather Will]

WB 15Z HRRR shows heavier rains moving through west to east around 5pm.