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June 2025 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ACATT never fails to disappoint . As foolish as they make themselves look 

They forget how summer works here now. Once it sets in, it’s in. There will be mild downs here and there, but the odds for a low dew JJA are pretty slim. 

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They forget how summer works here now. Once it sets in, it’s in. There will be mild downs here and there, but the odds for a low dew JJA are pretty slim. 

Yeah the days of nights in the 40s in the radiators in July seem gone.  It’s been a while since we’ve seen one of those patterns where it actually cools of at times with dews.

Now it seems to get down to average mins once in a while (like 52F here).

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20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They forget how summer works here now. Once it sets in, it’s in. There will be mild downs here and there, but the odds for a low dew JJA are pretty slim. 

Yeah it’s here. We are losing winter and gaining summer and they can’t handle it. 

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51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They forget how summer works here now. Once it sets in, it’s in. There will be mild downs here and there, but the odds for a low dew JJA are pretty slim. 

it's fun to pick a random august from the before times and see stretches of lows in the 50s

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

They forget how summer works here now. Once it sets in, it’s in. There will be mild downs here and there, but the odds for a low dew JJA are pretty slim. 

Who's forgetting? Looks average to slightly above except for a few days next week when we torch..  I still think the west Midwest and south of here are the big heat winners this year.. meh for us for the most part

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...Stick to the ensembles means from this range re the more important/obvious heat signal in debate. 

One day shot on Thursday ahead of shallow fropa, with limited backside CAA support.  The, synoptic systemic circulation changes that will surge a ridge after ~ D6..7     That much is higher than climo confidence.  Exact amplitude and/or interfering nuance notwithstanding...

The 00z ensemble means of all three majors were incrementally improved on the heat signal comparing the prior 12z run, which was also incrementally improved on the previous 00z's means.   The trend is clad, and is a spatial representation of what the numerical teleconnection correlate:   PNA to -1 SD/-summer EPO/ + fluctuating NAO.    

The operational runs will vacillate between better and worse correlated synoptics for the next several day's worth of run cycles. Probably mid/late week they start coming to a consensus.   

Two notes:     

One, amplitude bias at this range is a real model issue.   We've big signals start subtly lowering amplitude as we near enough to know this possibility lurks.   

Two, somewhat in conflict of that notion,   we seem to emerge this heat signal above on top of the solstic, and also, evidenced is S/W/ Sonoran heat release.   **This is a candidate for synergistic heat event**,  but we won't get a sense for confidence in that from this range. 

Also, we may see a pattern entrance MCS vulnerability late this week or over the weekend as an early guess/surmise, with rapidly rising heights and a NW geostrophic wind over top WSW transport/differential theta-e advection underneath.   

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You as well as anybody knows how rare it is to get into the upper 90s or triple digits in New England.

If we are talking KBOS or BDL it's really not difficult at all. 100F is a bit more challenging, and of course >100F is more rare. 98-99 is fairly routine for those spots.  I suppose it's how you want to define "rare", too. lol

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