June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[Wannabehippie]

I wonder if we will get an old fashioned heat wave, 5+ days of 90+ temps, coming up this weekend in to next week.

 

[steve392]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we had it in the morning you're getting it now.

I had rain overnight and this morning. Cleared up do nice til before. 

[Poker2015]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

You hit 90?  The warmest ambient station that I see in our area is 87 (I'm discounting the 93 as that can't be correct).  

Mine said 90, but who knows.

I always seem to run warmer

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder if we will get an old fashioned heat wave, 5+ days of 90+ temps, coming up this weekend in to next week.

 

GFS seems to be favoring southerly winds again at 18z with even an Ambrose Jet like setup in the afternoons. That would cap temps to mid 80s on the south shore if that, and the city/north shore to maybe low 90s. We're not getting high end heat in the city and east with strong southerly flow. The water temp off Jones Beach today is only 64. There would definitely be plenty of humidity but I highly doubt 95+ without westerly winds. NJ and Hudson Valley where seabreezes don't cap the heat is a different story. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

New Brnswck: 87
ACY: 87
EWR: 86
TEB: 86
PHL: 86
LGA: 85
TTN: 85
BLM: 84
NYC: 84
JFK: 82
ISP: 79

[dWave]

On 6/17/2025 at 5:48 PM, bluewave said:

The decline of NYC 100° temperatures since the ASOS was installed under the trees in 1995 is all about the incorrect sitting and not about cycles. 
 

2021

1921

 

Yeah its bad, and last time I pass by there it was considerably worse than this.  You can walk right past it but its so hidden now you may no idea anything is there unless you are really trying to find it.

Just standing there compared to being out and about where people actually live and its undeniable that it is an absurd representation of NYC.

[Snowlover11]

pouring here.

[dWave]

Thunder is non stop, I assume for those storms 25 miles away in Rockland/NJ border. Sounds like its right here though

[psv88]

83 today.

beautiful night. Lightning way off in the distance 

[doncat]

85° today... Plenty of days with rain but has only added up to 1.05" for the month.

[SRRTA22]

Saw lightning from the storm in upstate NY all the from downtown jersey city. Pretty cool tops must be pretty high 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder if we will get an old fashioned heat wave, 5+ days of 90+ temps, coming up this weekend in to next week.

 

The difference between the GFS and most of the other models is that the GFS has much higher heights out west while the Euro, EPS, and CMC have more of a trough out west. The higher heights on the GFS out west (very possibly a mistake) allow the high pressure and backdoor front over eastern Canada to drop southward into our region. If the GFS corrects and introduces lower heights out west it will probably become more like the other models. Likewise if the other models start showing higher heights out west they will be more aggressive with the backdoor cold front.

WX/PT

[SnoSki14]

Big correction to hotter on GFS. 100+ now looks like a lock away from immediate coast. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Big correction to hotter on GFS. 100+ now looks like a lock away from immediate coast. 

Yep, 0z has the stronger westerly flow which drives the heat right to the coast. That will be key-if we get the onshore flow there's a strong cap on it getting higher than low 90s near the coast when water temps are still low 60s. Maybe even 80s if it's more of a SSE flow. But westerly downslope and we heat up big time everywhere.

[Volcanic Winter]

Is it winter yet? 

[Snowlover11]

enhanced risk

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Flash flood event building over the city and western Long Island right now. Stationary convection firing. Could seed the atmosphere for later today. 
Might actually be a radar issue. 

[Snowlover11]

30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Flash flood event building over the city and western Long Island right now. Stationary convection firing. Could seed the atmosphere for later today. 
Might actually be a radar issue. 

uh, its sunny here.

[qg_omega]

59 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Flash flood event building over the city and western Long Island right now. Stationary convection firing. Could seed the atmosphere for later today. 
Might actually be a radar issue. 

What?

[ForestHillWx]

68/67…soupy. But I see Sun, and that should burn off the fog and launch temps. 

Would be nice to let the lawn dry a little bit before mowing. 
 

[wdrag]

am rushing so won't make a final decision for 2-3 100F days M-W KEWR area (interior NJ in our subforum).  Probably a pretty good chance for NYC to get at least one but want to rereview at 9P. 

Heat wave officially begins interior NJ Suun, possibly touching 90 Sat). HW ends sometime between Thu-Sat next week dependent on backdoor.

 

No time to assess SVR.  Use among your tools SPC and BOM.  

Have a day, 

Walt

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

So there hasn’t been any long term decline in 100° days in NJ and Central Queens away from the cooling influence off the bay at LGA during the 2020s. 

 

Oh yes there's been a notable decline in 100 degree heat, nothing to match 1993's 9 days of 100+ or 1949's 8 days of 100+ at EWR..... cmon Chris, CC has more of an influence on mins than it does on maxes and thats because of our new wetter climate.

It's got way more to do with more rainfall and more of a subtropical rainforest climate we have now vs what we had in the 1930s-50s and the 1990s.

The 100° day charts in NJ have seen a steady increase over time. Some spots away from the sea breeze set their all-time record in 2022. Even Newark had some sea breeze influence in 2022 which kept their 1993 record out of reach.

But luckily the summer 100° day count is increasing at a significantly slower pace than the winter 60° day count. Maybe if we continued with the dominant westerly flow like during 2010 to 2013 things would have changed. 

Plus in recent years our strongest 100° heat in the 2020s has been during the month of June. This will be something to watch for the rest of the summer. Since the last few years with 100° June heat had either 10”+ of rain in a few hours or a few weeks following a June 100°. So almost monsoon-like. 
 

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 100° day charts in NJ have seen a steady increase over time. Some spots away from the sea breeze set their all-time record in 2022. Even Newark had some sea breeze influence in 2022 which kept their 1993 record out of reach.

But luckily the summer 100° day count is increasing at a significantly slower pace than the winter 60° day count. Maybe if we continued with the dominant westerly flow like during 2010 to 2013 things would have changed. 

Plus in recent years our strongest 100° heat in the 2020s has been during the month of June. This will be something to watch for the rest of the summer. Since the last few years with 100° June heat had either 10”+ of rain in a few hours or a few weeks following a June 100°. So almost monsoon-like. 
 

 

 

 

 

this really is more of a tropical rainforest type of climate, in that kind of climate, you do not get extremely high temperatures because most of the heat is absorbed by the excess moisture in the atmosphere (which creates those high rainfall events later on in the summer.)  Maybe this predominant sea breeze is a function of climate change, as the planet seeks to balance out the differences between land and ocean?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

uh, its sunny here.

Yep, hasn't rained at all since yesterday morning.

The switch has flipped.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Big correction to hotter on GFS. 100+ now looks like a lock away from immediate coast. 

westerly flow would mean 100+ right to JFK

[winterwarlock]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yep, hasn't rained at all since yesterday morning.

The switch has flipped.

Let summer commence!

 

It just feels different  this morning

 

Glorious!

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, dWave said:

Yeah its bad, and last time I pass by there it was considerably worse than this.  You can walk right past it but its so hidden now you may no idea anything is there unless you are really trying to find it.

Just standing there compared to being out and about where people actually live and its undeniable that it is an absurd representation of NYC.

Maybe the excessive rainfall from CC has caused this foliage overgrowth..... looking at my front yard, I think this is the correct idea.  NYC had much less rainfall and a much drier climate during the 1930s-1960s with less foliage in our parks, so it was much easier to get record heat back then.

[SACRUS]

 

75 / 73 (tropics).   Partly to mostly sunny through the afternoon before scattered storms.   First or next  (2nd or 3rd) 90 degree readings for many.  A bit of a dip tomorrow with only a stray chance at 90 in the hottest spots.   

By Saturday the heat is coming on and the hot spots get to 90 , ridge builds to >594 DM with 850 MB temps >21C Mon - Wed.  Tuesday the century mark is most probable in the hot spots.  storms firing around the periphery of the ridge Wed evening on most models.   Heat continues later next week and into the weekend of the 27th.   

Overall warm - hot / humid and wetter with storms chances as ridge builds back west and more heat expands north and east early next month

6/19 :  Hot / storms later scattered
6/20 - 6/29 :   Overall hot to very hot (6-9 90 degree days of the 11 days) storms possible
6/30 - beyond :  Overall warm - hot and wet (storms) ridge builds west and expands east with heat bulding north and east

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

What?

The PHL radar was in clear air mode and it looked like stationary yellows and reds over the city. The Upton radar was down at the time. I watch the radars all the time and have never seen incorrect returns like that. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1994)
NYC: 98 (1994)
LGA: 97 (1994)
JFK: 98 (1994)


Lows:

EWR: 53 (1954)
NYC: 49 (1914)
LGA: 56 (2022)
JFK: 54 (1965)

 

Historical:

 

1794: A violent tornado commenced west of the Hudson River in New York. The tornado traveled through Poughkeepsie then crossed the border into Connecticut where it went through the towns of New Milford, Waterbury, North Haven, and Branford. It then continued into Long Island Sound. The tornado did extensive damage, and the funnel was reported by one observer to look like the "aurora borealis."

1835 - A tornado tore through the center of New Brunswick NJ killing five persons and scattering debris as far as Manhattan Island. The tornado provided the first opportunity for scientists to study firsthand the track of such a storm. (David Ludlum)

 

1934: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico came ashore in Louisiana, then moved northeast, passing over northern Delaware, Philadelphia, PA and central New Jersey as an extratropical storm, with sustained winds of 45 mph. Philadelphia received 1.70 inches of rainfall on the 18th into this date, and New York City had 1.93 inches on this date, a daily record. As the storm passed over Philadelphia, the pressure dropped to 29.40 inches of mercury.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1938 - A cloudburst near Custer Creek, MT, (near Miles City) caused a train wreck killing forty-eight persons. An estimated four to seven inches of rain deluged the head of the creek that evening, and water flowing through the creek weakened the bridge. As a result, a locomotive and seven passenger cars plunged into the swollen creek. One car, a tourist sleeper, was completely submerged. (David Ludlum)

 

1944: Hailstorm caused great destruction to fruit crop in Winchester, Virginia.

1964: A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois, followed by two more consecutive lines passing shortly after dawn. The resulting hailstorms caused damage in excess of $9 million dollars, as hailstones the size of grapefruits brought havoc to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as 5 inches of rain over an 8-hour period. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1965: The Arkansas River crested at 15.68 feet at Dodge City, KS. Heavy rains in Eastern Colorado combined with three broken dams started the torrent of water which flowed through Colorado and Kansas. The river rose seven feet in 15 minutes between 9 AM and 9:15 AM. The deepest part of south Dodge was about 7 feet under water. The deep water created other problems, when gas regulators were covered, pressure built up in the gas lines and Dodge City was rocked by explosions. Total urban losses in Dodge City and Wilroads Gardens were estimated at nearly $3.8 million dollars, including damages to 615 residences and 155 businesses. 24 Kansas counties were declared flood disasters. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972 - Hurricane Agnes moved onshore near Cape San Blas FL with wind gusts to 80 mph, and exited Maine on the 26th. There were 117 deaths, mainly due to flooding from North Carolina to New York State, and total damage was estimated at more than three billion dollars. Up to 19 inches of rain deluged western Schuylkill County PA. The rains of Hurricane Agnes resulted in one of the greatest natural disasters in U.S. history. Agnes caused more damage than all other tropical cyclones in the previous six years combined (which included Celia and Camille). (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - It was a warm June day, with plenty of thunderstorms east of the Rockies. Lightning knocked out power at Throckmorton, TX, and ignited an oil tank battery. A woman in Knox City TX was struck by lightning while in her car, and a man was struck by lightning near his home in Manatee County FL. Strong thunderstorm winds overturned several outhouses near Bixby OK, but no injuries were reported. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the central U.S. for Father's Day. Fifteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Severe thunderstorms in Minnesota and Wisconsin produced softball size hail near River Falls WI, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Menomonie WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Fourteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as searing heat spread from the southwestern deserts into the High Plains Region. Record highs included 98 degrees at Billings, MT, 107 degrees at Valentine, NE, and 112 degrees at Tucson, AZ. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - What would eventually be known as the "Inland Hurricane" stuck south central Kansas. This storm system produced a swath of 65 to 120 mph winds across six counties and caused $80 million dollars in damage. The peak recorded wind gust was 116 mph, which reaches low-end category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind intensity scale. On the enhanced Fujita Scale the 116mph winds would be rated an EF2. The storm knocked out power to all the Wichita TV stations, and they were off the air for hours. All but one of the Wichita Radio Stations, including the Wichita NOAA Weather Radio Station KEC-59, was knocked off the air. (National Weather Service Wichita)

2006 - Up to 11 inches of rain fell in the Houston, Texas area, causing widespread flash flooding. The Houston Fire Department rescued more than 500 people from flood waters, but no serious injuries or fatalities were reported