June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[Wannabehippie]

I wonder if we will get an old fashioned heat wave, 5+ days of 90+ temps, coming up this weekend in to next week.

 

[steve392]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we had it in the morning you're getting it now.

I had rain overnight and this morning. Cleared up do nice til before. 

[Poker2015]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

You hit 90?  The warmest ambient station that I see in our area is 87 (I'm discounting the 93 as that can't be correct).  

Mine said 90, but who knows.

I always seem to run warmer

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder if we will get an old fashioned heat wave, 5+ days of 90+ temps, coming up this weekend in to next week.

 

GFS seems to be favoring southerly winds again at 18z with even an Ambrose Jet like setup in the afternoons. That would cap temps to mid 80s on the south shore if that, and the city/north shore to maybe low 90s. We're not getting high end heat in the city and east with strong southerly flow. The water temp off Jones Beach today is only 64. There would definitely be plenty of humidity but I highly doubt 95+ without westerly winds. NJ and Hudson Valley where seabreezes don't cap the heat is a different story. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

New Brnswck: 87
ACY: 87
EWR: 86
TEB: 86
PHL: 86
LGA: 85
TTN: 85
BLM: 84
NYC: 84
JFK: 82
ISP: 79

[dWave]

On 6/17/2025 at 5:48 PM, bluewave said:

The decline of NYC 100° temperatures since the ASOS was installed under the trees in 1995 is all about the incorrect sitting and not about cycles. 
 

2021

1921

 

Yeah its bad, and last time I pass by there it was considerably worse than this.  You can walk right past it but its so hidden now you may no idea anything is there unless you are really trying to find it.

Just standing there compared to being out and about where people actually live and its undeniable that it is an absurd representation of NYC.

[Snowlover11]

pouring here.

[dWave]

Thunder is non stop, I assume for those storms 25 miles away in Rockland/NJ border. Sounds like its right here though

[psv88]

83 today.

beautiful night. Lightning way off in the distance 

[doncat]

85° today... Plenty of days with rain but has only added up to 1.05" for the month.

[SRRTA22]

Saw lightning from the storm in upstate NY all the from downtown jersey city. Pretty cool tops must be pretty high 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder if we will get an old fashioned heat wave, 5+ days of 90+ temps, coming up this weekend in to next week.

 

The difference between the GFS and most of the other models is that the GFS has much higher heights out west while the Euro, EPS, and CMC have more of a trough out west. The higher heights on the GFS out west (very possibly a mistake) allow the high pressure and backdoor front over eastern Canada to drop southward into our region. If the GFS corrects and introduces lower heights out west it will probably become more like the other models. Likewise if the other models start showing higher heights out west they will be more aggressive with the backdoor cold front.

WX/PT

[SnoSki14]

Big correction to hotter on GFS. 100+ now looks like a lock away from immediate coast. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Big correction to hotter on GFS. 100+ now looks like a lock away from immediate coast. 

Yep, 0z has the stronger westerly flow which drives the heat right to the coast. That will be key-if we get the onshore flow there's a strong cap on it getting higher than low 90s near the coast when water temps are still low 60s. Maybe even 80s if it's more of a SSE flow. But westerly downslope and we heat up big time everywhere.

[Volcanic Winter]

Is it winter yet? 

[Snowlover11]

enhanced risk

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Flash flood event building over the city and western Long Island right now. Stationary convection firing. Could seed the atmosphere for later today. 
Might actually be a radar issue. 

[Snowlover11]

30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Flash flood event building over the city and western Long Island right now. Stationary convection firing. Could seed the atmosphere for later today. 
Might actually be a radar issue. 

uh, its sunny here.

[qg_omega]

59 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Flash flood event building over the city and western Long Island right now. Stationary convection firing. Could seed the atmosphere for later today. 
Might actually be a radar issue. 

What?

[ForestHillWx]

68/67…soupy. But I see Sun, and that should burn off the fog and launch temps. 

Would be nice to let the lawn dry a little bit before mowing. 
 

[wdrag]

am rushing so won't make a final decision for 2-3 100F days M-W KEWR area (interior NJ in our subforum).  Probably a pretty good chance for NYC to get at least one but want to rereview at 9P. 

Heat wave officially begins interior NJ Suun, possibly touching 90 Sat). HW ends sometime between Thu-Sat next week dependent on backdoor.

 

No time to assess SVR.  Use among your tools SPC and BOM.  

Have a day, 

Walt