May 2025

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The record low maxes for the 22nd should be in play.

EWR…56°…..2003

NYC….54°…..1894

LGA…..57°…..2003

JFK…..55°……1967

ISP……54°……2003

where is this cold coming from? I don't see it getting any colder than the SST, the highs should all be 55 or higher with lows in the upper 40s.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Looks like about 96 hours of clouds starting later this afternoon.

96 is a stretch, I'd say more like 84.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Just great weather (a bit windy) last few days.  Low was 41 here this morning.  

Great sleeping with the windows open and the blankets up!

Not going to go on much longer so I'm enjoying it while it's here.

The muggy and sultry weather will be here soon enough.  Meanwhile everyday without it is one less day we have to deal with it.

 

 

climatologically that kind of weather begins in June, it's rare for it to be muggy and sultry in May.  And not even early June, more like after June 15th.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

a bunch of people here don't post at all when april starts

I've always thought it's the out of shape people that complain about the heat.

[steve392]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I was shivering last night and this morning!  The only good thing about this weather are the gorgeous deep blue skies, blue skies are good for the soul :-)

 

I had every window open, ceiling fans on and portable fan blowing on me.  Was perfect sleeping weather.  

[LibertyBell]

Just now, steve392 said:

I had every window open, ceiling fans on and portable fan blowing on me.  Was perfect sleeping weather.  

haha I had my space heater on.

don't need to open any windows the cold wind comes into my house and blows open my bedroom door.

 

[bch2014]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Congrats!

But honestly this far out it's a crapshoot

Totally - still can't resist looking as a .

[Poker2015]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

haha I had my space heater on.

don't need to open any windows the cold wind comes into my house and blows open my bedroom door.

 

I was hot last night. Mowed the lawn this morning in shorts and flip flops, lol

[steve392]

26 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

I was hot last night. Mowed the lawn this morning in shorts and flip flops, lol

Nothing stops lawn domination not even footwear!

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

where is this cold coming from? I don't see it getting any colder than the SST, the highs should all be 55 or higher with lows in the upper 40s.

 

The big cutoff low which has become a familiar late May repeating pattern over the last 10 to 15 years.

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The big cutoff low which has become a familiar late May repeating pattern over the last 10 to 15 years.

 

At least this will be gone before Memorial Day weekend.

From the maps I've seen there may even be some sunshine tomorrow morning and the sun may come out again Friday afternoon.

 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The big cutoff low which has become a familiar late May repeating pattern over the last 10 to 15 years.

 

This is why our springs have gotten cooler (high temps) and a -nao has become prevalent in April and May while a +nao is prevalent in the winter now.

[SI Mailman]

1 hour ago, Poker2015 said:

I was hot last night. Mowed the lawn this morning in shorts and flip flops, lol

Went to work in just shorts and my short sleeve shirt, no jacket.  Was regretting the decision until about noon, then happy I made that choice.  

[forkyfork]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've always thought it's the out of shape people that complain about the heat.

[rclab]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've always thought it's the out of shape people that complain about the heat.

With the best intentions, two arms make all the difference. As always ….

 

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of cool weather is now underway. This morning, the temperature slipped to 49° in Central Park. That was New York City's coolest temperature this month. The below normal temperatures could persist into early next week.

A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely tomorrow into Thursday. A gusty wind will likely accompany the rainfall. Showers could persist into Friday. There is a chance that New York City could see the mercury dip below 50° Thursday or Friday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +0.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.511 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

An extended period of cool weather is now underway. This morning, the temperature slipped to 49° in Central Park. That was New York City's coolest temperature this month. The below normal temperatures could persist into early next week.

A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely tomorrow into Thursday. A gusty wind will likely accompany the rainfall. Showers could persist into Friday. There is a chance that New York City could see the mercury dip below 50° Thursday or Friday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +0.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.511 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).

 

It would be interesting to see what kind of summers we generally have after a cool May.  May is close enough to summer to serve as some gage I take it?

 

[Sundog]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

6 foot 170 lbs and I walked 10 miles a week before I injured my back in late 2023. 

I hate the heat. I hate high dews even more. 

Today was an exquisite day, another 10/10. 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It would be interesting to see what kind of summers we generally have after a cool May.  May is close enough to summer to serve as some gage I take it?

 

Thanks to its warm start, May will wind up near normal to perhaps slightly below normal.

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is why our springs have gotten cooler (high temps) and a -nao has become prevalent in April and May while a +nao is prevalent in the winter now.

They haven't gotten cooler though. Maybe they're warming less than winter but still warming 

[SRRTA22]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've always thought it's the out of shape people that complain about the heat.

I'm definitely in shape lol I fucking hate anything above 85 , if it's dry and breezy it's awesome but stagnant hot city air is terrible 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

At least this will be gone before Memorial Day weekend.

From the maps I've seen there may even be some sunshine tomorrow morning and the sun may come out again Friday afternoon.

 

I think this is possible.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks to its warm start, May will wind up near normal to perhaps slightly below normal.

It might be interesting to watch the timing of the end of this pattern. Some of the models are indicating a quick turn-around into summer at the very end of May and during the first week of June. While one must be skeptical because this pattern has been so stubborn to leave, it can't last forever.

WX/PT

 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

It might be interesting to watch the timing of the end of this pattern. Some of the models are indicating a quick turn-around into summer at the very end of May and during the first week of June. While one must be skeptical because this pattern has been so stubborn to leave, it can't last forever.

WX/PT

 

I think there’s pretty good agreement about upper 70s/low 80s to end May or start June. The GFS appears to be greatly overdone with the heat.

[qg_omega]

On 5/9/2025 at 7:02 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Showers and periods of rain are likely through at least the first half of tonight. A general storm total 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts by the time all of the rain winds down. Following the weekend, it will turn warmer and possibly drier. Some showers will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -13.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.412 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 66.0° (2.8° above normal). That would tie 2025 with 1986 as the 9th warmest May on record.

 

What a change in the monthly outlook from two weeks ago

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 66.0° (2.8° above normal). That would tie 2025 with 1986 as the 9th warmest May on record.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

At least this will be gone before Memorial Day weekend.

From the maps I've seen there may even be some sunshine tomorrow morning and the sun may come out again Friday afternoon.

 

Cold pool clouds and pop up convection for Saturday and pop up clouds on Sunday but not much actual rain.
 

 

[lee59]

Yesterdays highs on Long Island

Islip                67

Farmingdale  66

LaGaurdia      68

Kennedy          76

[BxEngine]

12 hours ago, forkyfork said:

As you Post from an air conditioned room all summer….

[FPizz]

Pretty close to a record low High Temp today in some spots I believe. NYC is 54.

[SACRUS]

 

54 / 51 clouds.  Cool / wet stretch the next 72 hours.  Rain later and heavy rain Thursday with coastal as trough cuts off and ULL slowly moves through and northeast this weekend.   1.5 to 3.00 inches of rain in the heaviest spots northeast.  Saturday to slowly clear out but with upper level low still over to the north some isolated showers and and stingy clouds could get in the way espeically eastern areas. 

Sun and Mon to look to clear out and get back to normal.  Trough still into the northeast through much of next week with next chance for showers and rain 5/28 - 5/30.   

Warmth and heat on the move north and east out of the west and a much warmer start to next month and the chance for tracking some heat.   May see the trough back west and ridge setup along the EC / WC.

 

On to the clouds