May 2025 Obs/Discussion

[butterfish55]

Installing a generator on the Cape in Dennis today. Beautiful morning here, warm and sunny

[Great Snow 1717]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is a perfect time to be getting rain like this with full leaf out occurring and help get rid of the green crap everything is coated in. 

Exactly!

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

This is a perfect time to be getting rain like this with full leaf out occurring and help get rid of the green crap everything is coated in. 

This is a good take.

[CoastalWx]

Seems like models sort of all over the place with the rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

That end of week into Saturday costal idea the Euro has. Hopefully that can be tossed as we get closer. Seems very suspicious 

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like models sort of all over the place with the rain.

Yeah. Tough forecasting specifics in any one location. 

[weatherwiz]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like models sort of all over the place with the rain.

Looks like the axis of the most favorable parameters shifts quite a bit throughout the day. This is going to give alot of "false hope" for some because for the areas getting hit now and will later and the areas missing out...those areas missing out will eventually get it. 

Tomorrow is going to be interesting with a quite a bit of convective elements involved. PWATS are quite high for the entire region through tomorrow so just about everyone is going to get involved at some point. 

[dendrite]

50.2° RA

Stinko de Mayo

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

50.2° RA

Stinko de Mayo

That's what the regular season finale should be known as from 2025 for the Patriots 

[butterfish55]

Hazy sun, 72 working right by Mayflower beach in Dennis. Sunscreen needed

[kdxken]

40 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

Hazy sun, 72 working right by Mayflower beach in Dennis. Sunscreen needed

Thanks, You were just added to the GTG back room beating list. Likely right after powderfreak  gets his.

[Brian5671]

Hvy rain moved in here...61 degrees

[butterfish55]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Thanks, You were just added to the GTG back room beating list. Likely right after powderfreak  gets his.

Trolling is so fun!

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That end of week into Saturday costal idea the Euro has. Hopefully that can be tossed as we get closer. Seems very suspicious 

12z GFS has it

[ineedsnow]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I see the GFS with the first Atlantic cane of the season 

12z has your hurricane again 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS has it

Great 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Great 

Maybe late Saturday is good and Sunday doesn't look bad

[ineedsnow]

Next week looks warm on the GFS but of course the following weekend is meh

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Next week looks warm on the GFS but of course the following weekend is meh

Gonna need to analyze the lake Winni sediment core data to find the last decent weekend up here

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Gonna need to analyze the lake Winni sediment core data to find the last decent weekend up here

It’s been pretty consistently shitty on the weekends for a while.

Never had a great spring skiing weekend this season.

[mreaves]

5 hours ago, butterfish55 said:

Installing a generator on the Cape in Dennis today. Beautiful morning here, warm and sunny

Why is that sky that weird color?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Next week looks warm on the GFS but of course the following weekend is meh

There's a low amplitude heat signal now for the 12th thru ~ the 18th ( ending is open )

It's showing up in all three major ens systems, EPS/GEFS/GEPS.    The numeric equivalents, the teleconnections, have a negative PNA with a ( important distinction ) easterly limb -NAO... If that NAO does materialize but corrects west ...we'd be back door boned but that's not actually modeled to be the case at this time - just a precaution.  

Otherwise, there's not much else that looks capable at large scales of controlling the circulation identity.  The major players will be a height rises NE of Hawaii over the E Pac Basin, which transmits to the western N/A trough response =>  eastern CONUS ridging. 

It just not huge at this time... but it is identifiable.  If the wholesale gets a little more robust, than that weird weakness rattling around over the TV probably becomes less coherent/fills in - but it's not clear that's affecting up this far N anyway.   Have to watch these... Sometimes these May heat surges can over perform because we're still tending to recover soil sourced theta-e, so the kinetic side of the temperatures can get nasty from rather tepid looking warm patterns - think synergistic over performance.  This sort of thing happened up in NNE since 2020 a couple of times, sending them into the mid 90s when NY and Boston held at 85

Kind of a 564 to 569 thickness over 850s intervals to 14C for now. 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Why is that sky that weird color?

Reflection from the winter blue balls of AEMATT

[Typhoon Tip]

The other way I know the warm ridge idea has legs is because every time since the mid 20teens there's one in the model, the operational GFS canes Cuba/Bahamas.  

it's like responding to numerical instability more than an actual system and then spontaneity in the physical processing of the model takes over and it just fabricates one - but it requires the deep layer easterly anomaly to the circulation mode down there, which is what happens when?  duh duh dunnn... there's ridge over the eastern CONUS.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's a low amplitude heat signal now for the 12th thru ~ the 18th ( ending is open )

It's showing up in all three major ens systems, EPS/GEFS/GEPS.    The numeric equivalents, the teleconnections, have a negative PNA with a ( important distinction ) easterly limb -NAO... If that NAO does materialize but corrects west ...we'd be back door boned but that's not actually modeled to be the case at this time - just a precaution.  

Otherwise, there's not much else that looks capable at large scales of controlling the circulation identity.  The major players will be a height rises NE of Hawaii over the E Pac Basin, which transmits to the western N/A trough response =>  eastern CONUS ridging. 

It just not huge at this time... but it is identifiable.  If the wholesale gets a little more robust, than that weird weakness rattling around over the TV probably becomes less coherent/fills in - but it's not clear that's affecting up this far N anyway.   Have to watch these... Sometimes these May heat surges can over perform because we're still tending to recover soil sourced theta-e, so the kinetic side of the temperatures can get nasty from rather tepid looking warm patterns - think synergistic over performance.  This sort of thing happened up in NNE since 2020 a couple of times, sending them into the mid 90s when NY and Boston held at 85

Kind of a 564 to 569 thickness over 850s intervals to 14C for now. 

CAR's hottest is 96, reached once in May and twice in June.  Modest dews, a bit of downsloping from west wind (not SW, too much water to heat), heat records.

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

CAR's hottest is 96, reached once in May and twice in June.  Modest dews, a bit of downsloping from west wind (not SW, too much water to heat), heat records.

What’s the statewide record there?

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What’s the statewide record there?

Ever?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Streams / rivers really starting to rage around here. 
I have over 2”  since Thursday.

[powderfreak]

41 minutes ago, tamarack said:

CAR's hottest is 96, reached once in May and twice in June.  Modest dews, a bit of downsloping from west wind (not SW, too much water to heat), heat records.

What year was that ridiculous May heat… was that 2020 or 2021?

Like 95F at SLK at 1,600ft.

[tamarack]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What’s the statewide record there?

Thanks, Dendrite.  All 3 NNE states set their all-time highest in July 1911.  ASH hit 106, the other 2 105.