2025-2026 ENSO

[jconsor]

Top 10 cold period past two and a half weeks for eastern US:

https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/2019729810914992195

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Top 10 cold period past two and a half weeks for eastern US:

https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/2019729810914992195

Wow thanks for posting this. I knew it was cold but didn't realize the impressive nature of it.

@bluewave frequently mentions that cold anamolies are short in duration. This is the opposite. January 15 - February 4 is the coldest 3 weeks of the year on avg to begin with. 2026 now ranks 3rd coldest for that 3 week stretch at Detroit in 153 years of record. Only 1918 & 1963 were colder.

Pittsburgh also ranks 3rd in 152 years of record. Cleveland 4th in 156 years. Toledo 6th in 153 years. And even NYC 17th in 158 years.

 @FPizz @mitchnick @MJO812

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Great - another cold and rainy spring

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

Anthony,

 It’s important to be aware that the WxBell Euro EW 2m maps have a notable 2m temp cold bias as I’ve posted about repeatedly. I have an easy way to show this by posting the in-house Euro weeklies maps covering the same period and comparing to this WB map.

Examples:

 -The Rockies and west coast are a very cold -3F to -10F for 2/21-3/22 on your map. What?!?
 
 -Chicago/OH Valley are -2F, Asheville is -3F, Detroit is -4F, DC/Richmond are -3F, ATL/CLT are -1F.

 -Now check out ECMWF’s in-house maps for the truth: no BN on any maps covering the same period for the locations I listed

2/23-3/1:

 

3/2-8:

 

3/9-15:

 

3/16-22:

 So based on the truth, the Rockies and much of the West should be a bit AN instead of well BN. So, that means they’re mainly 5F to 10F too cold on WB!

 The E cities I listed should be NN in Chic, Det, Ohio Valley, DC, Richmond, and +1F in ATL/CLT/ASH. So, that means these locations are 2-4F too cold on WB.

 WxBell has NYC at -4F. The truth is that they should be -1F. So, NYC is 3F too cold on WB.

@donsutherland1this remains a problem

Just for the northern MA and Northeast, thats a decent look for BN temps, albeit slightly.

[EastonSN+]

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Unfortunately those 10 or so days were not all that fun for here. Eastern NC though I'm sure was just in love with this pattern lol.

From the looks of the Nina phase 1 passage is taking place this weekend. Large cold dump with warming through much of the plains showing up. Going forward it does show cold building back up into Canada to be unleashed again at some point maybe the last week or so of February into early March as we move into Phase 2/3?

Hopefully phase 3 occurrs by 1st week of March (considering lag).

[Violentweatherfan]

6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

dt says next couple of weeks going to be bad if you want snow in the east

 

He also pointed out how off the forecast was for the MJO. It’s definitely going in the wrong direction so here is to hoping if is off about that.

[George001]

22 hours ago, MJO812 said:

February doesnt look warm at all for the east. Same thing has been happening all winter. Looks warm in the east in the long range only to correct colder.

I agree it will end up being a cold and possibly snowy month overall, but I do agree with the idea of a mid month relaxation period.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That's correct. The ECMWF is actually using a potentially somewhat warmer period than 1991-2020 for calculating its subseasonal anomalies. The site mentions:

The mean anomalies are derived from the ECMWF Sub-seasonal range ensemble consisting of 100 ensemble members plus a control member and averaged over a seven day period. Anomalies are calculated with respect to the Model Climate, which is derived from re-running an 11-member ensemble over the last 20 years, giving 220 realisations in total.

See bottom of: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202602050000&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading

A fuller discussion, which also notes 20 years of values, is here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Section+5.3.2+SUBS-M-climate%2C+the+sub-seasonal+model+climatehttps://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Section+5.3.2+SUBS-M-climate%2C+the+sub-seasonal+model+climate

Below is a quick comparison of the 1991-2020 period with the last 20 years for 10 select cities to provide an idea of how things have changed.

 

Wow, that's quite impressive IMO, considering 1991-2020 was, by far, the warmest climatological normal period in recorded history. And the last 20 years are outpacing them by 0.6-1F across the board. One would think the warmer norms would tilt the scale towards more cooler than normal years, but, in fact, one finds the opposite phenomenon. Very intriguing. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

Top 10 cold period past two and a half weeks for eastern US:

https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/2019729810914992195

Dominant indices Jan 15-Feb 4:
- moderate to strong +PNA
- strong to very strong -AO
- moderate to very strong -EPO
- moderate to strong -WPO
- so one of the greatest 3 week long combos of +PNA, -AO, -EPO, -WPO on record
- strong to moderate MJO phases 6-7 and weak phase 8
- neutral NAO averaged out with no strong anomalies