2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

MCD up... 60% chance of Watch 

Mesoscale Discussion 1197
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1204 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of VA/MD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081704Z - 081830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms are
   possible through the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main
   hazard but a tornado and sporadic hail also are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is develop early this afternoon in
   a weakly unstable airmass in the vicinity of an effective warm front
   draped across northern VA toward coastal MD. As additional heating
   occurs over the Blue Ridge, thunderstorm coverage should increase
   and storms will move across the Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity
   through the afternoon. Overall instability and midlevel lapse rates
   will remain modest. However, effective shear around 30-40 kt will
   support organized cells. Where steeper low-level lapse rates develop
   amid stronger heating, strong/severe gusts will be possible.
   Low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced along the warm front, as
   is evident in the LWX VWP, which shows a mildly enlarged and
   favorably curved low-level hodograph. Rotating storms interacting
   with the warm front could pose a risk for a brief tornado or two.
   The area is being evaluated for possible watch issuance.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38987851 39297781 39267736 39157695 38847623 38407580
               37587544 36967538 36607571 36577610 36557726 36777834
               37207889 38027910 38577893 38987851 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

 

[wawarriors4]

5 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

Was any rotation, or rising motion visible?

Yes, 100% visible. Especially as it moved off to my North East.

[arlwx12]

Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
152 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
  Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD...

* Until 315 PM EDT.

* At 152 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing
  waterspouts was located near Colonial Beach, moving northeast at 10
  knots.

[87storms]

Was hoping the warm front would push a little further north, but seems like it's hit a wall.  Not expecting much up here with the current temps and cloud cover except periods of showers.

[WxUSAF]

Always La Plata

[arlwx12]

Tornado watch up

[arlwx12]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025

TORNADO WATCH 392 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DCC001-090200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0392.250608T1825Z-250609T0200Z/

DC
.    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$

---

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025

TORNADO WATCH 392 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC003-009-017-021-027-031-033-037-043-090200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0392.250608T1825Z-250609T0200Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         CALVERT             CHARLES
FREDERICK            HOWARD              MONTGOMERY
PRINCE GEORGES       ST. MARYS           WASHINGTON
$$

---

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025

TORNADO WATCH 392 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC003-013-015-029-033-036-041-043-047-049-057-059-061-065-069-
073-075-079-085-087-095-097-099-101-103-107-109-113-115-119-125-
127-133-137-139-145-153-157-159-165-171-177-179-187-193-199-510-
540-600-610-630-650-660-683-685-700-735-760-790-820-830-840-
090200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0392.250608T1825Z-250609T0200Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBEMARLE            ARLINGTON           AUGUSTA
BUCKINGHAM           CAROLINE            CHARLES CITY
CHESTERFIELD         CLARKE              CULPEPER
CUMBERLAND           ESSEX               FAIRFAX
FAUQUIER             FLUVANNA            FREDERICK
GLOUCESTER           GOOCHLAND           GREENE
HANOVER              HENRICO             JAMES CITY
KING AND QUEEN       KING GEORGE         KING WILLIAM
LANCASTER            LOUDOUN             LOUISA
MADISON              MATHEWS             MIDDLESEX
NELSON               NEW KENT            NORTHUMBERLAND
ORANGE               PAGE                POWHATAN
PRINCE WILLIAM       RAPPAHANNOCK        RICHMOND
ROCKINGHAM           SHENANDOAH          SPOTSYLVANIA
STAFFORD             WARREN              WESTMORELAND
YORK


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           CHARLOTTESVILLE     FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH         FREDERICKSBURG      HAMPTON
HARRISONBURG         MANASSAS            MANASSAS PARK
NEWPORT NEWS         POQUOSON            RICHMOND
STAUNTON             WAYNESBORO          WILLIAMSBURG
WINCHESTER
$$

---

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025

TORNADO WATCH 392 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

WVC003-037-090200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0392.250608T1825Z-250609T0200Z/

WV
.    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKELEY             JEFFERSON
$$

[dailylurker]

Starting to get some sun here in the lowlands. It's definitely feeling warmer in the past 20 minutes. Hopefully there's a few wedges later. 

[MN Transplant]

Was out running errands and thought that I’d see if that cell sliding by Tysons would deliver.  Never tightened up.  Pic from Mosaic overlooking the picturesque Merrifield Home Depot.

 

 

[AlexD1990]

Rotation north of Fredericksburg?

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Eskimo Joe]

51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Always La Plata

Cool mesonet stuff happening near there soon

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Cool mesonet stuff happening near there soon

A new site or something even cooler (micronet?!?!?!)

[southmdwatcher]

The earlier Tornado warned cell just passed by here in Charles County. I see broad rotation.

[Mrs.J]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

Was hoping the warm front would push a little further north, but seems like it's hit a wall.  Not expecting much up here with the current temps and cloud cover except periods of showers.

Some of those showers were downpours. We went downtown to the Arts Festival. Even with umbrellas and rain jackets had to hang in a few of the tents till it let up. 

[dailylurker]

Flash flood warning west of DC. Hopefully that juices up and gives the area a soaker this evening. 

[WeatherShak]

That cell in Culpepper looks juicy

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

That cell in Culpepper looks juicy

Yes. Warm fronts are devious.

[Scraff]

17 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

That cell in Culpepper looks juicy

I swear I see some rotation on that one using the velocity scan. 

[mappy]

4 hours ago, 87storms said:

Was hoping the warm front would push a little further north, but seems like it's hit a wall.  Not expecting much up here with the current temps and cloud cover except periods of showers.

It has been cloudy, with periods of rain, all day here. Not surprised to be left out of the watch. Good luck/stay safe everyone else!

[DanTheMan]

Crazy loud boomer here in Jeffersonton 

[Mrs.J]

28 minutes ago, mappy said:

It has been cloudy, with periods of rain, all day here. Not surprised to be left out of the watch. Good luck/stay safe everyone else!

I thought we would be left out also. Have had the same conditions here. Was surprised to see us on the far east end of it. 

[Kmlwx]

Cool radar today - lots of storms moving in different directions.

[high risk]

Having the tornado watch cover as far northeast as the DC metro area was somewhat silly.  The warm front was never going to make it this far.  

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

Having the tornado watch cover as far northeast as the DC metro area was somewhat silly.  The warm front was never going to make it this far.  

You're missing the point. 9/10 times the front never makes it that far northeast. Then the 1/10 time happens and there's like 20 EF0 / EF-1 tornadoes across the DC / Baltimore area. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[Jebman]

17 minutes ago, high risk said:

Having the tornado watch cover as far northeast as the DC metro area was somewhat silly.  The warm front was never going to make it this far.  

Oh, the warm front WILL get as far as metropolitan DC. Only all it will bring is a few sprinkles and fierce 77 degree dewpoints along with a 13 mph south wind and highs around 99 degrees. Even on the 1/10 instance. Lucy strikes again but this time in the sweltering summer.

 

 

J/K

You guys will get incredible thunderstorms and lots of good rain but with minimal damage and no injuries.

[high risk]

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You're missing the point. 9/10 times the front never makes it that far northeast. Then the 1/10 time happens and there's like 20 EF0 / EF-1 tornadoes across the DC / Baltimore area. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

          But that's climatology.    There are certain models that depict warm front movement very well, and none of them today had it getting nearly as far northeast as DC.    The only model that had good UH tracks this far north was the 12Z HiResW ARW, but it showed DC at 80 degrees at the time the watch was issued.   Guidance *and* observational trends were clear this was not the day when the front would move quickly northeast.    In fairness, though, SPC's focus today was on the Southern Plains, so I can't really fault them for not working more to pinpoint the size of the Mid-Atlantic watch box.