2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[mappy]

Everybody good? Lot of damage reports showing up in the area

[JakkelWx]

DOVER PUMMELED WOOOOOOO

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

That second round was a damn good storm. Nice gust, lots of lightning and heavy rain. Total of .90 so far. 

Just breezy here and thunder all off in the distance. Getting some decent rain now though.

[JakkelWx]

[Kay]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Numerous reports of site build structural damage and partial building collapses in the Dundalk and Essex areas.

Nothing severe up here but it was especially noisy...continuous thunder from all that activity crossing the Baltimore area into the Bay.

0.7" rain

[SnowtoRain]

1.64" storm total

[yoda]

Is this the area we are watching for our overnight threat?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0269.html

 

[snowfan]

In Bmore earlier right before the tornado warning was issued.

[Herb@MAWS]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

About 0.6” I think based on nearby PWS. @Herb@MAWS?

Just measured — precisely 0.60”. 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

Just measured — precisely 0.60”. 

Should put us over 4” for the month? 
 

I lost this good-sized limb and neighbor had a tree down, but that was the most damage we saw in a short walk around the neighborhood. 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

1.64" storm total

You got into the best part with that one. Garden variety here and ended up with 0.55". Was lucky to get that, but no complaints. Needed rain.

[JakkelWx]

After the storm

[32º]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Everybody good? Lot of damage reports showing up in the area

Had to clear my driveway with a chainsaw.

[WeatherShak]

storm split right as it got to me.  barely any rain 

Wild. I’ve got a tree laying on my house. Barely a couple miles from you.

[H2O]

25 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

Wild. I’ve got a tree laying on my house. Barely a couple miles from you.

That is awful. I’m so sorry. Seeing reports how Belle haven, Woodlawn, Edsall all got hit hard and I only got .20 and a couple gusts

[H2O]

32 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

Wild. I’ve got a tree laying on my house. Barely a couple miles from you.

And I hope you and the fam are ok too

[yoda]

Mesoscale Discussion 0829
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0737 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern Ohio...Western Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 170037Z - 170300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado / wind-damage threat may develop across parts of
   central and eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania later this
   evening. As a severe convective line organizes and approaches,
   weather watch issuance may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of
   supercells in the lower Ohio valley. These storms are located along
   and near an axis of moderate to strong instability. The northern
   extension of the instability axis is located from central and
   northern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania, where MLCAPE is in the
   1000 to 1500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. As the convective
   cluster grows upscale, a linear MCS is expected to organize and move
   eastward through the remainder of the Ohio Valley this evening.
   Short-term model forecasts suggest the severe MCS will move eastward
   into the central Appalachians. Uncertainty exists concerning how far
   north this feature will track. If the severe part of the MCS ends up
   moving through central and northern Ohio, then a severe threat will
   be likely over parts of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania by mid
   to late evening. QLCS tornadoes and wind-damage will be the primary
   threats.

   ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   40358297 40198141 40508065 41238044 41808100 41838224
               41648344 41468379 40908372 40358297 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

[Eskimo Joe]

Really wonder how much overturning of the atmosphere has occurred. Do we at least see elevated convection later tonight?

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Really wonder how much overturning of the atmosphere has occurred. Do we at least see elevated convection later tonight?

Mesoanalysis show a minimum of CAPE over most of the region. I just wonder if between the MLLR to the west potentially advecting in, and any "recovery" from any other processes overnight could sustain convection into our area. But judging my CAPE alone - it seems we are cooked for surface based activity. Perhaps the MLLR and better forcing and maybe if there's a cold pool fro the activity to the west could sustain covection. Lots of question marks. 

[Kmlwx]

The 0z HRRR is pretty much a dud the rest of the night.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Mesoanalysis show a minimum of CAPE over most of the region. I just wonder if between the MLLR to the west potentially advecting in, and any "recovery" from any other processes overnight could sustain convection into our area. But judging my CAPE alone - it seems we are cooked for surface based activity. Perhaps the MLLR and better forcing and maybe if there's a cold pool from the activity to the west could sustain convection. Lots of question marks. 

More often than not, we do not do multiple rounds of storms well. The exception to that was 2008 when there were like 3 serial derechos that went through the area. I'd argue we see that convection die off quickly once it hits the Eastern Continental Divide.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[high risk]

11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The 0z HRRR is pretty much a dud the rest of the night.

            Yeah, consistent with what you noted in the mesoanalysis, the 00Z Dulles raob shows that the earlier convection really stabilized the atmosphere here.   Surface-based instability is negligible, and the mid-level lapse rates are lousy.     Perhaps some improvement advects in overnight, and I'm not ready to throw in the towel after one HRRR run goes to crap after several more interesting runs.    That said, IF we do get an overnight round, I think it would likely be elevated and therefore non-severe.     I won't discount some improvement in the low levels and a fast-moving convective system that is able to generate some wind, but I don't think that scenario is very likely.

[CAPE]

The HRRR isn't the end all lol. Its "ok" sometimes, and other times(often) it completely sucks at sniffing out reality even a few hours in advance. Latest 3km NAM, RGEM, and FV3 suggest some degree of convection towards dawn across the area. Where exactly is yet to be determined. To be clear, any overnight storms have a low probability to be severe, but I think many here would be content with some additional rain with some rumbles of thunder- a nice way to wake up and get the coffee going.

[yoda]

New severe thunderstorm watch up for WV until 5am

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0273.html

 

 

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 273
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Far Southeast Ohio
     Western Virginia
     West Virginia

   * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1130 PM
     until 500 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should spread eastward overnight
   while posing a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds,
   with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. Isolated hail and perhaps a tornado
   or two may also occur.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast
   of Parkersburg WV to 5 miles west southwest of Bluefield WV. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce

   tornadoes.