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30 minutes ago, doncat said:

The drought is starting to impress me.

While we still have big rainfall surplus since July 2023, several stations have had their driest start to fall.


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024-10-12 0.89 0
2 1941-10-12 1.24 0
3 1931-10-12 1.58 0
4 1953-10-12 1.78 0
5 2013-10-12 1.92 0
- 1970-10-12 1.92 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024-10-12 0.83 0
2 2009-10-12 1.32 0
3 1986-10-12 1.73 0
4 1964-10-12 1.85 0
5 1970-10-12 1.90 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024-10-12 0.34 0
2 1982-10-12 1.28 0
3 2019-10-12 1.38 0
4 1997-10-12 1.42 0
5 1986-10-12 1.63 0
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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While we still have big rainfall surplus since July 2023, several stations have had their driest start to fall.


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024-10-12 0.89 0
2 1941-10-12 1.24 0
3 1931-10-12 1.58 0
4 1953-10-12 1.78 0
5 2013-10-12 1.92 0
- 1970-10-12 1.92 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024-10-12 0.83 0
2 2009-10-12 1.32 0
3 1986-10-12 1.73 0
4 1964-10-12 1.85 0
5 1970-10-12 1.90 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024-10-12 0.34 0
2 1982-10-12 1.28 0
3 2019-10-12 1.38 0
4 1997-10-12 1.42 0
5 1986-10-12 1.63 0

Yeah 1.26" here since 9/1.  The looking ahead at the continued dryness is making it more impressive.

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Cooler air will arrive tonight and readings tomorrow will reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Even cooler air will arrive for Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will top out mainly in the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday and then the upper 50s on Thursday. Lows will fall into the lower 40s in New York City and 30s outside the City where frost is likely. A potential warming trend could develop during the following weekend.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. As a result, D0 and D1 conditions will likely continue to expand in the region and the pocket of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +3.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.128 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal).

 

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48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has no measurable precipitation for it’s entire run last night for the area 

 

 

I don’t think I have had a drop of rain in my area since the month started 

Going to be tough to get much rain here with the models advertising a near record 590 dm ridge for next weekend.

IMG_1548.thumb.png.32cce6e6288835675edcb1cf37361eb4.png

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13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This would be very bad had it been summer

Yeah it’s bad enough now, luckily most plants are just going to go straight into hibernation. Had it been summer they would have just died. In the 10 years I have been in charge of horticulture for Columbia/Barnard this is the driest stretch I have seen. Usually it’s a couple weeks this time it’s been months. 

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I think your 10 year run started as our local climate started to show a noticeable change to warmer and more moist. Certainly increased humidity and subsequent higher night time lows.

 

but the consistent over precipitation, breaking annual norms and the monthly big rainfalls just arent historically normal

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