September 2024

[psv88]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Last rain by site

 

LGA: 9/7 (0.32)
NYC: 9/7 (0.24)
JFK: 9/7 (0.18)
EWR: 9/7 (0.08)

 

Prior to this 8/30
 

Wow. Not often we go 2 straight weeks with nothing. May end up close to 3 weeks before we rain

[Brian5671]

6z GFS ends the dry spell and bigly

 

[Allsnow]

Euro has good rains mid week and then a tropical beast moving in from the south 9/30. We need and deserve it 

[SnoSki14]

Since it's been so dry it probably means we'll get like 20" of rain in a 2-3 day timeframe 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Sunny out here on the island but the forecasts were clouds. Is it expected to get cloudy? 

[bluewave]

The GFS recent wetter solution for next week weakened the blocking ridge over the Northeast enough. Notice the upper low getting closer to the area. The tropical input also helps. 
 

New run 

 

Old run

 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The GFS recent wetter solution for next week weakened the blocking ridge over the Northeast enough. Notice the upper low getting closer to the area. The tropical input also helps. 
 

New run 

 

Old run

 

Like the Ohio Valley trough positioning.  Hopefully the trend holds or at least any shifts are minimal.  That pattern could produce.

[SACRUS]

74 / 57 variable cloudy.  Dry streak continues and more warmer spread. The wet at the end of the dry tunnel perhaps in site Wed - Fri.  Blocked up pattern may target a cloudy rain area over the northeast by then.  Overall warmer beyond there.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Dep through 9/20

LGA: -1.7
NYC: -.7
EWR: -.1
JFK:  + .6

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The GFS recent wetter solution for next week weakened the blocking ridge over the Northeast enough. Notice the upper low getting closer to the area. The tropical input also helps. 
 

New run 

 

 

Old run

 

 

 

Such blocking will make for more strung out dry or wet conditions where the cut off and any tropical systems wind up.

 

[SACRUS]

 

7 days projection a touch wetter 

 

[Stormlover74]

Icon got drier but gfs still pretty wet through Friday esp city west 

[winterwx21]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Icon got drier but gfs still pretty wet through Friday esp city west 

And today's CMC gives our area a half inch to three quarters of an inch Wednesday into Wednesday night. Still a long way to go, but overall the models right now looks pretty good. Let's hope we finally get a desperately needed drink. 

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And today's CMC gives our area a half inch to three quarters of an inch Wednesday into Wednesday night. Still a long way to go, but overall the models right now looks pretty good. Let's hope we finally get a desperately needed drink. 

It's sad if we can't even get a half inch to at least break the dry spell

Ukie misses completely 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Like the Ohio Valley trough positioning.  Hopefully the trend holds or at least any shifts are minimal.  That pattern could produce.

I think the forecast details for the closed low positions are going to be tricky since the blocking is even stronger on the 12z run today near a record 580 dm block for Greenland. So it’s going to be challenge forecasting how much moisture can stream into the area with so much blocking to our north. Models really struggle with blocking and cutoffs. So not putting much stock yet in any rainfall details. A +48 dm 500 mb anomaly is as extreme as we have seen during September.
 

[winterwx21]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's sad if we can't even get a half inch to at least break the dry spell

Ukie misses completely 

Yeah it's still very questionable how much rain we'll get midweek, as bluewave just explained. I won't get my hopes up too high yet. 

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Sunny out here on the island but the forecasts were clouds. Is it expected to get cloudy? 

Close call.   Although clouds are trying to push in from the east, they seem to be running into drier air.  Maybe the forks are/will be somewhat cloudy?

[qg_omega]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the forecast details for the closed low positions are going to be tricky since the blocking is even stronger on the 12z run today near a record 580 dm block for Greenland. So it’s going to be challenge forecasting how much moisture can stream into the area with so much blocking to our north. Models really struggle with blocking and cutoffs. So not putting much stock yet in any rainfall details. A +48 dm 500 mb anomaly is as extreme as we have seen during September.
 

Crazy that even in winter that block wouldn’t deliver

[Cfa]

Cloudy now in Lake Grove, but it was already in the 70’s from the sunshine.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

47 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Close call.   Although clouds are trying to push in from the east, they seem to be running into drier air.  Maybe the forks are/will be somewhat cloudy?

I’m in the hamptons right now and it’s cloudy and breezy. 

[Stormlover74]

Mostly sunny and 80

[winterwx21]

Another overperformer today. It's 82 here. We sure wiped out the significant negative departure that we had for the first 10 days of the month. 

[steve392]

Says 77 at Citi Field but with sun directly in front it's a toaster. Will definitely be burnt after game.  Breeze off Flushing Bay feels great. 

[Allsnow]

Euro flexes the block 

[Rjay]

Tropical system runs into a wall in the gfs

 

 

[bluewave]

This may be the first time I can remember seeing surface high pressure build west from Newfoundland to north of the Great Lakes. The highs usually start out north of the Great Lakes and move off the coast a few days later. So this really isn’t a typical looking set up. Just goes to show how extreme these blocking patterns are getting. It’s no wonder there are a number of models showing a dry slot near the area with heavier totals east and west. 
 

 

[Rjay]

Lol the canadian

 

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will arrive overnight. Temperatures could top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s through most of next week before a slow warming trend commences. Showers are also possible during the second half of next week.

In the Southwest and parts of California, yet more excessive heat could develop early next week. Parts of the region could see near record to record high temperatures on one or more days next week.

Early long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly (2010), as was the case with the September 20th teleconnections.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +1.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.603 today. That is the second lowest value for September 21. Only September 21, 2010 (-2.675) had a lower value. That is also the fifth lowest value for any September day.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.9° (0.3° below normal).

 

[Allsnow]

This is awful 

 

driest September on record might be come 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This is awful 

 

driest September on record might be come 

18z gfs has rain