SACRUS Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 Highs EWR: 81 JFK: 81 TEB: 80 PHL: 80 NYC: 79 ISP: 79 New Brnswck: 78 TTN: 78 ACY: 77 LGA: 77 BLM: 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 High to the north and low to the south with easterly flow to continue for at least the next 10 days. But some indication that low pressure becomes more dominant near early October as the high finally starts to weaken. We will also have to watch the tropics as the MJO becomes more favorable for development to our south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 68 / 63 cloudy and light showers scattered. Some showers / rain perhaps steadier rain along the cost / eastern areas otherwise 0.25 - 0.75 for most over the next few days. Cloudy / humid, warmer side of normal. Pokes of sun Thursday near 80 , cloudy with showrs working south on Friday. Clear/dry out for the weekend with the persistent onshore flow. Could be cloudy 5 of next 7 days. By next Wed / Thu (9/25) next shot at rain and wtach any tropical systems in the GOM potentially ride up the coast. Matter of when the dry reversal happens and is it in a big way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 Radar returns add credence to the idea that the bulk of the rain stays East, off the coast. The 1-3" in SoJo depictions are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 1 minute ago, Monty said: Radar returns add credence to the idea that the bulk of the rain stays East, off the coast. The 1-3" in SoJo depictions are in trouble. Yup. HRRR completely loss the idea of heavy rain in SNJ this afternoon. Looks like we will need to wait until October for rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 39 minutes ago, Monty said: Radar returns add credence to the idea that the bulk of the rain stays East, off the coast. The 1-3" in SoJo depictions are in trouble. Yup, rain shrinking away. Maybe the twin forks can salvage something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. HRRR completely loss the idea of heavy rain in SNJ this afternoon. Looks like we will need to wait until October for rain How awful the Euro has become 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 39 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. HRRR completely loss the idea of heavy rain in SNJ this afternoon. Looks like we will need to wait until October for rain I wouldn't discount next week yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 3 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: How awful the Euro has become it's always been this way with sensitive coastal low setups 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's always been this way with sensitive coastal low setups The pain of January 2015 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: The pain of January 2015 the morning of the feb 2013 blizzard it had the 2" liquid line back to trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: the morning of the feb 2013 blizzard it had the 2" liquid line back to trenton Don’t get me started with Nemo! I think TTN ended with 4 inches haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 all this blocking and we just get a month of east winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Yup. HRRR completely loss the idea of heavy rain in SNJ this afternoon. Looks like we will need to wait until October for rain Horrible. Keep watering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 The fact that the 3K NAM was never on board with what the 12K NAM had was a red flag 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 Hard to believe that with Francine hitting the gulf coast and moving northward, then a coastal storm hitting the Carolinas, followed by another storm now developing just offshore, that we would wind up with nada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 13 minutes ago, doncat said: Hard to believe that with Francine hitting the gulf coast and moving northward, then a coastal storm hitting the Carolinas, followed by another storm now developing just offshore, that we would wind up with nada. Like Philly getting over 2 feet of snow and Central Park nada. It can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 13 hours ago, Allsnow said: Latest hrrr That would make for one tough forecast, based on the tight gradient close to a very dense population area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 26 minutes ago, doncat said: Hard to believe that with Francine hitting the gulf coast and moving northward, then a coastal storm hitting the Carolinas, followed by another storm now developing just offshore, that we would wind up with nada. Not really surprising since we recently set a new 500mb height record over Ontario for this time of year. All the models have been back and forth from run to run. So no continuity. We will probably have to wait for this blocking over SE Canada and New England to weaken a bit and the tropics become more active. As we have seen here these brief dry soil moisture patterns eventually reverse with the heavy rains being more impressive than the preceding dry pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 51 minutes ago, doncat said: Hard to believe that with Francine hitting the gulf coast and moving northward, then a coastal storm hitting the Carolinas, followed by another storm now developing just offshore, that we would wind up with nada. Great post. Very frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 4 hours ago, SACRUS said: 68 / 63 cloudy and light showers scattered. Some showers / rain perhaps steadier rain along the cost / eastern areas otherwise 0.25 - 0.75 for most over the next few days. Cloudy / humid, warmer side of normal. Pokes of sun Thursday near 80 , cloudy with showrs working south on Friday. Clear/dry out for the weekend with the persistent onshore flow. Could be cloudy 5 of next 7 days. By next Wed / Thu (9/25) next shot at rain and wtach any tropical systems in the GOM potentially ride up the coast. Matter of when the dry reversal happens and is it in a big way. Satellite is Reminicent of many a winter storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: Satellite is Reminicent of many a winter storm... And the dim sun shining through the overcast here...LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 12z euro has no rain for the rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCPOW Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 12z euro has no rain for the rest of the month Does that mean it will likely rain since it has done such a poor job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: 12z Euro op and EPS. Once again not sure if I buy this. Yesterday's run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 That's yesterdays run which is proving to be a huge BUST 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 18, 2024 Author Share Posted September 18, 2024 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yesterday's run Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 Pretty mean looking altostratus out there today. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That's yesterdays run which is proving to be a huge BUST It might be a top 5 worst performance for the euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2024 Share Posted September 18, 2024 20 minutes ago, FPizz said: It might be a top 5 worst performance for the euro When it’s been dry for an extended period better to bet on more of the same. I think I’m going g to turn into a sprinkler… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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