Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup but We’ll only get like 8wks of HHH though. Just a bit longer than our winters lol but still way below south/midwest summehs. 

Summer will last through October.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think these ENSO's are forcing the atmosphere outside of 20 N/S proficiently enough for that - particularly in the summer when the integrated gradients are weak.  Weakly hemispheric coupling would likely flop over into the first half of autumn. 

I suspect this autumn will go like they all have tended to over the last 8 years...  some kind of 'smells like snow' cold snap in latter October through early December, which may even support snow in air ... interceded by other times when it's +15 diurnal unbelievablism -  we'll blame it on Nina but ...

wild variability in autumns has been the new norm regardless of what leading indicators suggested. 

Then, ... we'll settle off into a wind scarped AN winter with one or two below periods and a lot of tortured events that looked promising on D10's, but failed to pass successfully through this de-amplifier gauntlet of the D6 modeling game ... Either way, if and when the "storms" come ( for lack of better word) it will consummately only be 50 to 70% of the original appeal in terms of actual storming.  

Next February will have a week in the 80s ... and March will feature a cat paw Nor'easter with snow in the Monads, and while winter enthusiasts cry about it ... PF will choose that moment in time to tell us how the winter up there was surprisingly productive everything considered ( in optimistic tenor).   May is obliterated by cold BDs unrelenting... and the summer is a 83/78 "above normal" CC season. ... April's are a piece of shit regardless of what geologic epoch so no need to characterize -

Rinse and repeat for the next 10+ years, while adding decimals to temperatures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heh... wouldn't shock me if the 00z Euro is more correct on that Friday result.  

we'll see... but I've observed hundreds of those type set ups where the front's dynamics are ripping away and abandoning it, leaving the only triggers to be the vestigial pressure well/convergence along boundary itself. It causes early eruption over N-NE PA/SE NY, and those cells then Pac-man right of the gradient and choke us off.  

...and all we get up our way is anvils and light rain. 

One or two oreographic/terrain CBs west of Concord NH or something...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Warm Sept and Octs don’t have the same summeh hhh bite though. All I’m saying. So AN is fine. AC’s are not going to be running in Oct…

I mean, it has felt like summer...but I haven't used the A/C once, but the pool temp without heating is sitting at 81°. It can still be summer without 90/70 for weeks, this weather is the best of both worlds, keep energy costs down and still enjoy the summer outdoors, who could complain? Just as in winter, lets get a ton of snow with above average temperatures!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I mean, it has felt like summer...but I haven't used the A/C once, but the pool temp without heating is sitting at 81°. It can still be summer without 90/70 for weeks, this weather is the best of both worlds, keep energy costs down and still enjoy the summer outdoors, who could complain? Just as in winter, lets get a ton of snow with above average temperatures!

School ends tomorrow and I realized there weren’t any heat days announced by the district. Usually there is stretch where they either let out kids early or provide notice to stay hydrated and dress comfortably. That hasn’t happened. It’s been a great warm-low dew spring for sure. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

School ends tomorrow and I realized there weren’t any heat days announced by the district. Usually there is stretch where they either let out kids early or provide notice to stay hydrated and dress comfortably. That hasn’t happened. It’s been a great warm-low dew spring for sure. 

You must be in a different climate zone.  I don’t recall heat issues outside of a rogue event this early.  Sure some days get into the 80s with the rare 90 but I’ve learned not to expect consistent summer wx until post Father’s Day or even a week later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You must be in a different climate zone.  I don’t recall heat issues outside of a rogue event this early.  Sure some days get into the 80s with the rare 90 but I’ve learned not to expect consistent summer wx until post Father’s Day or even a week later.

Your location can have significant difference than mine in May/June. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Your location can have significant difference than mine in May/June. 

Yes, he is on the fringes but definitely within the boundaries of the ocean cooling effect this time of year.

Late May is often when the CRV can be cooking and folks in Boston are in long sleeves and pants. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yes, he is on the fringes but definitely within the boundaries of the ocean cooling effect this time of year.

Late May is often when the CRV can be cooking and folks in Boston are in long sleeves and pants. 

We’ve had some of our hottest days in NNE early in the season in May and June the past 5 years or so.  We’ve had some real record scorchers.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We’ve had some of our hottest days in NNE early in the season in May and June the past 5 years or so.  We’ve had some real record scorchers.

And earlier.  CAR's hottest temp is 96, reached 3 times, once in May 1977 and twice in June, 1944 and 2020.  May 1977 and June 2020 also had a 95° day.  Relatively low dews plus winds from W/NW have been the characteristics of those days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

I mean, it has felt like summer...but I haven't used the A/C once, but the pool temp without heating is sitting at 81°. It can still be summer without 90/70 for weeks, this weather is the best of both worlds, keep energy costs down and still enjoy the summer outdoors, who could complain? Just as in winter, lets get a ton of snow with above average temperatures!

My pool is 66

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We’ve had some of our hottest days in NNE early in the season in May and June the past 5 years or so.  We’ve had some real record scorchers.

You know, I was going to bring this up yesterday but I wasn’t sure if I was just speculating. It seems to me some of our best heat stretches in Western Massachusetts have been in May and June past 10 years.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You know, I was going to bring this up yesterday but I wasn’t sure if I was just speculating. It seems to me some of our best heat stretches in Western Massachusetts have been in May and June past 10 years.

Yeah, PF and I have broached this subject a few times over the years.  

There's been this propensity in May's to see ridging evolve between the Del Marva and NS...  That's like taking a WAR structure, and then repositioning it N of normal. 

Some of those early heat pops featured humid SE flow into D.C. and PHL...with S at LGA and BOS being afflicted by SSW which are technically an indirect marine contamination from the S.  But DTX-BUF-BTV has a WSW wind around the NW periphery of said ridge.

Also, the flora of the continent isn't quite yet dumping evapotranspiration theta-e back into the circulation medium as much in mid May at those latitudes... that plays a roll - dryer air and 'desert' like responses.  

The result of SSE flow along the coast and WSW flow inland sends BTV to the sunny side of the moon while PHL-NYV-BOS are stunted. 

The changes in the spring time circulation modes may or may not be a part of the CC stuff - I suspect that's the case because noted mode changes are happening elsewhere around the globe, so in the absence of another explanation. 

Then later on ... the summer deepens and everyone N-E of the Mason Dixie ends up pretty much in a DP anomaly with comparatively tepid heat - big heat from the west being blocked by a semi permanent mid level weakness/shear axis from ORD, south.   In the means ...there's probably exceptions to the rule.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Impressive GGEM run re the -PNAP structure.

Has a sizeable 594 circumvallate closed off along the EC that extends to BOS latitude embedded in a ... well shit, here

image.png.ce48ff3168a91fc108b188b2c56bee8c.png

That weakness there centered over OH/PA is in fact a remnant tropical inject from off the Gulf ... undoubtedly transporting some serious back of Gulf ball bag steam into an already egregious set up. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Signs emerging ( perhaps right on schedule ...) that this may be more of a seasonal warm departure. 

Period is still the 17th - 22nd.  The end is negotiable. It's not very clear at this time that there's a new pattern modulation out there but there are hints of this settling off into a AN/neutral oscillation look, after the initial wave.

This is starting to remind me a little of 2018 July, when the modeling began showing the big dawg 590 + heights in a large ridge node, but was missing the key SW heat released air mass injection.  We can "home grow" heat just fine, which is what happened then - however, we miss the opportunity to really suffer ( lol ).  But that will take the edge/history off the ceiling if/when we don't get the 24C 850 mb pulses involved.   The high non-hydrostats will allow multi diurnal thermal aggregation to expand the hydrostatic heights, and you get one of these heat waves that's like 90, 94, 97 because it takes that long at our latitude to "fill" the expansion room.   I'm sure less of that makes sense ...  but the take away is that the guidance ( ensemble means) are missing some parametrics that would make this remarkable at this time.  

Awesome heat canceled!

  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...