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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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22 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Great summer forecast from Don on the NYC forum.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. The temperature will rise into the lower 80s. A few warmer spots could top out in the middle 80s. Cooler air will begin to arrive on Wednesday with the temperature reaching the upper 70s. Thursday and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +9.44 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.381 today.

On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.671 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.3° (2.1° above normal).

I appreciate those detailed analysis but it’s very easy nowadays…broad-brush AN for every summeh and call it. 
 

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Caught a couple turkeys on the prowl in the yard earlier. Probably trying to get a few last munchies in before the downpours start. Amazing how the animals can sense when nasty weather is on the way. Even our little dog has been on edge since this morning!

IMG_0179.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Snowedin said:

Caught a couple turkeys on the prowl in the yard earlier. Probably trying to get a few last munchies in before the downpours start. Amazing how the animals can sense when nasty weather is on the way. Even our little dog has been on edge since this morning!

IMG_0179.jpeg

I used to have a large flock come into my yard every evening and eat up all the bugs they could find. Haven't see many for a couple years, a couple here and there.

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Nice TOR just immediately outside Montreal today…  every time I go to Montreal the surrounding farm land just looks like it might as well be the Midwest.  Flat and wide open.  Mile after mile.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0217okPGDMGNEs2cTLDA3CB2fkE6ysAhKTWFPYjwppkXRHXYU9DfLbix98tf2obXUTl&id=100003808557806&mibextid=w8EBqM

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1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

I used to have a large flock come into my yard every evening and eat up all the bugs they could find. Haven't see many for a couple years, a couple here and there.

There's a disease of some kind going around. Not sure any of my turkey hunting friends bagged anything. On my property , same thing a couple stragglers.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice TOR just immediately outside Montreal today…  every time I go to Montreal the surrounding farm land just looks like it might as well be the Midwest.  Flat and wide open.  Mile after mile.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0217okPGDMGNEs2cTLDA3CB2fkE6ysAhKTWFPYjwppkXRHXYU9DfLbix98tf2obXUTl&id=100003808557806&mibextid=w8EBqM

I feel the same way about upstate New York. 

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice TOR just immediately outside Montreal today…  every time I go to Montreal the surrounding farm land just looks like it might as well be the Midwest.  Flat and wide open.  Mile after mile.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0217okPGDMGNEs2cTLDA3CB2fkE6ysAhKTWFPYjwppkXRHXYU9DfLbix98tf2obXUTl&id=100003808557806&mibextid=w8EBqM

 

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I feel the same way about upstate New York. 

Really beautiful places. 

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1.12” after emptying the Stratus this evening.  Another round is en route but expect it to diminish quickly as the solar energy is gone.

We’ve been a bit dry as is usual this time of year… but a good soaking for the soil with this FROPA as we start to plant the garden.

Memorial Day weekend is the anecdotal start to the growing season locally.

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9 hours ago, kdxken said:

There's a disease of some kind going around. Not sure any of my turkey hunting friends bagged anything. On my property , same thing a couple stragglers.

I have turkeys like you wouldn’t believe. It’s out of control.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I have turkeys like you wouldn’t believe. It’s out of control.

They seem to be hanging close to populated areas. I think it's in the wild that they're getting lean.

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22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Anyone know a easy way to get rid of rosy maple moths.. there taking over a tree in the front yard.  

I had never heard of them. Seems like they're not a big problem although if you wanted to get rid of them you'd have to have the tree sprayed. 

 

https://www.wamc.org/news/2023-07-06/dazzling-cryptic-and-vital-national-moth-week-marked-with-events-in-pittsfield-west-stockbridge

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