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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX is not impressed

Winter Weather:

Given the time of year, precipitation types will be both elevation-
and time-dependent. It will be tough to get much snowfall during the
daylight hours. Also cannot close the door on a period of freezing
rain or sleet either. That would further cut into snowfall totals.
Winter Storm Watch continues for western Franklin and western
Hampshire Counties.

They kept much of the discussion from yesterday. #saveitforthenextshift

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I’m pretty surprised there’s no watch for N ORH county. Guess they think it’s below 50% chance for 6”+ there. Might not be a large enough area too, but they may have to issue one if 12z stays on the colder side. 

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4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I've got a handy from a handsome genny. He usually wheels me out then puts a hurting on me while folding me over the table. I leave the back door open. Poor mans shelter but I only do this when I'm feeling like a bad boy. Does everyone else open up the hiny to a handsome genny or do they leave it uncovered and hope for the best

Time to spring into the offseason.

:axe:

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7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I've got a honda genny. I usually wheel it out then put a folding table over it then a tarp. I leave the ends open. Poor mans shelter but I only do this in bad rain or sn storms. Does everyone else cover their portable genny or do leave it uncovered and hope for the best

I pull it out when the power goes out

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BOX must be looking forward to my obs this week....right on the edge of the snow shield at the northern periphery of the coverage area.

Wouldn’t that be the southern periphery? If everybody north of you is increasing/getting more…wouldn’t that put you on the southern periphery? Just trying to picture what you mean? 

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38 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I've got a honda genny. I usually wheel it out then put a folding table over it then a tarp. I leave the ends open. Poor mans shelter but I only do this in bad rain or sn storms. Does everyone else cover their portable genny or do leave it uncovered and hope for the best

I deal with not having power until precip is done.

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The NAM may be the way to go with this. It's doing a damn good job I think with the handling of the convection and evolution of the convection across the Ohio Valley. The NAM is quite scary today with the extent of the potential for severe weather and strong tornadoes. If the convection today becomes as robust as the NAM indicates that is good news for the interior and maybe for areas that are borderline currently. 

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43 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I've got a honda genny. I usually wheel it out then put a folding table over it then a tarp. I leave the ends open. Poor mans shelter but I only do this in bad rain or sn storms. Does everyone else cover their portable genny or do leave it uncovered and hope for the best

Not made to be sitting out in the rain and actually should be grounded.

IMG_4409.jpeg

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1 hour ago, DomNH said:

Problem with those GFS clown maps in this area is that most of what falls after 12z Thursday, if it’s even snow, probably isn’t accumulating much, especially on pavement. Heaviest rates are Wednesday night into Thursday which could bring a few sloppy inches but anything after that I’m skeptical. The snow depth maps aren’t all that impressive outside of the elevated areas. 

This is exactly what I was visualizing when I took in the guidance over the last 24 hours this morning.

This looks like an "unfortunately poor time juggernaut waste" due to seasonal forcing.  

Not lecturing at anyone here just op ed:  ... folks need to realize that it's not just the in situ thermal circumstances on the storm chart day(s), it's the fact that everything leading up to it has been processed by now nearly two weeks past the vernal equinox.  The arrival to this state of affairs, back on January 20th ( say ...) would likely just be a colder much more conducive to frozen event profile with far less consternation. 

Given the larger synoptic everything ... this was a massive signal - but for what?  It was unclear from the start and here we are...  This looks like light cold rain that flips to sleet for a while ... then back to light rain that flips to soaked cotton balls (once the 2ndary gets going) whenever it comes down hard enough.  Ground melting almost equals the fall rate though. It just looks like a protracted cold misery with reducing redeeming aspects at this point that model blend.  Yuck. 

The AI Euro version was the most interesting 00z version I saw... It had everyone N of the south coast safely < 0 C at 850 mb for the entire duration, with a 985 to 990 mb low transit along the climatological snow route, and 2+" of liq equiv QPF.  It spans 2 days, so much of that would be at night. 

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06z Euro is still scalpy through 06z to the NH border but goes to town after that. Could see advisory snows from that 06z - 12z or so window before the dynamics kind of crap out and it flips to ra/sn non-accumulating stuff. 

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