April 2024

[psv88]

31 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Constant 40-50 with rain several days a week from october thru may. This sucks. And is worth moving for. Being Maritime like Seattle or London

Don’t forget the wind storms. Every week we get howling winds as well. Awful 

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Don’t forget the wind storms. Every week we get howling winds as well. Awful 

Yesterday I noticed a nice ding in a neighbor down the street's metal fence and a huge tree branch next to it. So many wind storms I have no idea which one did it. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Weird how in winter the models always correct warmer as we get closer to a date and in April they always correct cooler and wetter for the past many years now. I’ll die on the hill that April is our worst weather month. 

I think the problem with April is that while warmer than March overall, our expectations are higher for April than for March.  I also think that the earlier start to daylight savings puts us mentally in Spring mode sooner than we should be. Anyone with kids in outdoor sports knows that we all freeze our a**es off from March until some point in May, when suddenly a switch is flipped and it's tolerable for a week before oppressive heat kicks in that no one is prepared for.

 

 

 

[ILoveWinter]

8 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I think the problem with April is that while warmer than March overall, our expectations are higher for April than for March.  I also think that the earlier start to daylight savings puts us mentally in Spring mode sooner than we should be. Anyone with kids in outdoor sports knows that we all freeze our a**es off from March until some point in May, when suddenly a switch is flipped and it's tolerable for a week before oppressive heat kicks in that no one is prepared for.

 

 

 

I agree that there is a psychological element to it, but the gloominess over the past few years has made it feel worse.

[bluewave]

My guess is that this persistent trough near the Northeast is related to the +IOD creating a MJO 2 type pattern. 

 

 

[IrishRob17]

13 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I think the problem with April is that while warmer than March overall, our expectations are higher for April than for March.  I also think that the earlier start to daylight savings puts us mentally in Spring mode sooner than we should be. Anyone with kids in outdoor sports knows that we all freeze our a**es off from March until some point in May, when suddenly a switch is flipped and it's tolerable for a week before oppressive heat kicks in that no one is prepared for.

 

 

 

Nailed it. Lax season always started with coats and hats and ended with shorts while football season started in shorts and ended in coats and hats. The thing is, we're 'miserable' on the sidelines watching the kids play but it's all over before you know it so make the most out of whatever weather hand you're dealt.
 

37 for the low up here this morning. Keeping an eye on this afternoon but thinking the severe will be further west. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

29 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

but it's all over before you know it so make the most out of whatever weather hand you're dealt.

I totally agree.  I already mourn for when it will be over.  Hands down, I'll take standing out there watching in 40s with rain and wind over 70s with blue skies but no more games left to watch..  

[snowman19]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that this persistent trough near the Northeast is related to the +IOD creating a MJO 2 type pattern. 

 

 

If the models are overdoing this +IOD event, which is possible and we go into a -IOD, I think this La Niña explosively develops this summer and fall, should that happen, there’s a chance it becomes a record event (i.e. 73-74, 88-89). The ingredients, both atmospheric and oceanic are definitely there

[SACRUS]

 

41 now to 55.  Sun - Tue warm and dry/clear.   Low to mid 70s today and Tuesday.  Mid / upper 70s tomorrow (perhaps a few 80 readings).  Clouds and cooler again by Wed - Sat.    Cooler 4/21 - 4/25.  We'll see if guidance is right keeping it overall drier once past Friday.    Onshore persistence could keep it cooler.  Ridging twrds the close of the month.

 

 

  

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 93 (2023)
NYC: 91 (2023)
LHA: 89 (2023)


Lows:

EWR: 26 (1950)
NYC:  26 (1950)
LGA: 27 (1950)


Historical:

 

1873 - A famous Easter blizzard raged across Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota. Gale force winds blew the wet snow into massive drifts, however there were few deaths due to the sparse population and due to the gradual increase of the storm. (David Ludlum)

1886 - A devastating tornado, 800 yards in width at times, cut a twenty mile path through Saint Cloud MN killing 74 persons. The bottom of the Mississippi River was said to have been seen during the tornado's crossing. Eleven persons were killed at a wedding party near the town of Rice. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1912: On her maiden voyage, the RMS Titanic rammed into an iceberg just before midnight. The "unsinkable ship" sank two hours and forty minutes later into the icy water of the Atlantic Ocean near Newfoundland, Canada. Tragically, 1,517 passengers including the crew were lost. A nearby ship, the Carpathia, rushed to the Titanic and was able to save 706 people. 

1922: The Mississippi River reached a record height of 21.3 feet at New Orleans, Louisiana, and the river was still rising, with the crest still a week away. Understandably, the City of New Orleans was nervous as reports of levees failing upriver reached the city. A crevasse below New Orleans would relieve the pressure on the town's strained levees on the 27th, spared the city from disaster.

 

1935: Black Sunday refers to a particularly severe dust storm that occurred on April 14, 1935, as part of the Dust Bowl. During the afternoon, the residents of the Plains States were forced to take cover as a dust storm, or "black blizzard," blew through the region. The storm hit the Oklahoma Panhandle and Northwestern Oklahoma first and moved south for the remainder of the day. It hit Beaver around 4:00 p.m., Boise City around 5:15 p.m., and Amarillo, Texas, at 7:20 p.m. The conditions were the most severe in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, but the storm's effects were felt in other surrounding areas.

1987 - A storm system moving slowly northeastward across the Middle Mississippi Valley produced severe thunderstorms which spawned three tornadoes around Ottumwa IA, and produced up to four inches of rain in southeastern Nebraska, flooding rivers and streams. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A weather disturbance off the southern coast of California brought parts of southern California their first rain in six weeks. Rain-slickened roads resulted in numerous accidents in southern California, including a ten car pile-up at Riverside. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Late afternoon thunderstorms in northern Florida soaked the town of Golden Gate with 4.37 inches of rain in about two hours, resulting in local flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in southeastern Texas during the mid morning hours. Thunderstorms produced dime size hail at Galveston, and wind gusts to 59 mph at Port Arthur. Afternoon thunderstorms over southeast Louisiana spawned tornadoes south of Bogalusa and at Rio. (Storm Data)

 

1999: In Sydney, Australia, a hailstorm causes $1.6 billion in damage, making it the costliest hailstorm to strike a populated city in the country. The hail damaged some 22,000 homes and more than 60,000 vehicles. Also, aircraft damage at Sydney Airport was extensive.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Daylight 13H:17M  Roughly equivalent August 28th.

[Stormlover74]

Meh. My guess is they die out and we get weak showers and some wind

 

[MANDA]

51 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Daylight 13H:17M  Roughly equivalent August 28th.

Getting there.  Less than an hour before we reach the latest sunset.  I know, it is two months away so don't me.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If the models are overdoing this +IOD event, which is possible and we go into a -IOD, I think this La Niña explosively develops this summer and fall, should that happen, there’s a chance it becomes a record event (i.e. 73-74, 88-89). The ingredients, both atmospheric and oceanic are definitely there

El Niño to La Niña transition summers are usually pretty hot. So we’ll probably need to keep the pattern very wet to take the edge off the warmer potential. But that would come with the price of higher dewpoints. 

[weathermedic]

59 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Meh. My guess is they die out and we get weak showers and some wind

 

From OKX AFD:

While there is deep-layer shear present with strong mid-level
flow, instability is generally weak and confined primarily to
the mid levels. Surface-based CAPE is located mainly north and
west of the NYC metro with SPC HREF max CAPE values of 500-1000
J/KG. Mean CAPE values are less than 250 J/KG. This is partly
due to the frontal timing in the evening after max insolation,
but also dry air in the low-levels. CAMs generally show the line
dissipating this evening as it approaches the area and in some
cases with no more than a spotty shower reaching the coast. So
the best chance will be across the interior with chances
decreasing toward the coast.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Getting there.  Less than an hour before we reach the latest sunset.  I know, it is two months away so don't me.

I'm ready 

[winterwx21]

Strange that RGEM is showing rain for tomorrow afternoon. The other models are dry. I assume the RGEM is off its rocker. It's supposed to be a beautiful day. Probably the warmest day of the next 3 as well with temps well up into the 70s. 

Enjoy the 70s today through Tuesday., Too bad we're going to be backdoored with cool and damp weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Hopefully we can break out of it a little bit and have a decent day on Friday. 

[Rtd208]

45 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

From OKX AFD:

While there is deep-layer shear present with strong mid-level
flow, instability is generally weak and confined primarily to
the mid levels. Surface-based CAPE is located mainly north and
west of the NYC metro with SPC HREF max CAPE values of 500-1000
J/KG. Mean CAPE values are less than 250 J/KG. This is partly
due to the frontal timing in the evening after max insolation,
but also dry air in the low-levels. CAMs generally show the line
dissipating this evening as it approaches the area and in some
cases with no more than a spotty shower reaching the coast. So
the best chance will be across the interior with chances
decreasing toward the coast.

Yeah the later timing will probably cause the line to weaken as it approaches the NYC metro plus its still a touch early for good severe storms especially closer to the coast but chances will be ramping up over the next few weeks.

[donsutherland1]

Spring is now in full bloom at the New York Botanical Garden. Some photos from this morning:

[steve392]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Spring is now in full bloom at the New York Botanical Garden. Some photos from this morning:

Beautiful! 

[allgame830]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I'm ready 

I’m not LOL…. You need to enjoy the spring and summer a bit more Ant!

[bluewave]

This is one of those rare times that an advertised 6-10 day warm up underperforms. The much stronger 50/50 low and low over Iowa played a role here. It caused a narrower and more elongated ridge to allow a much stronger backdoor.

New run

Old run

[SACRUS]

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Made it to 69 before the showers and rain racing through N-NJ/NYC pushed clouds south.  Looks in and out and sunny around 2/3 pm west to east.

 

 

[Allsnow]

Enjoy the warmth Monday as the end of the week got uglier. More rain coming 

[Rtd208]

Current temp 71 here. 

[wishcast_hater]

Big Thunder and Lightning up here but not much rain to go with it. At least where I am.


.

[winterwx21]

75 degrees here. 

[Allsnow]

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

Been a stretch of awesome snow winters for Alaska and much of the West which will likely continue as long as this perma-Nina and -PDO stays. This “winter” was another Nina in functionality for much of it just added with the juiced Nino southern jet. And next probably “winter” will probably be officially a strong Nina.