bluewave Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep it’s crazy, and it must be driving these roaring Pacific Jet patterns that inundate us with warmth. In this era maybe the only way that changes is a competing marine heatwave somewhere else. Yeah, there have been many comments on the forum how this -PDO La Niña background state has been so much warmer especially during the winters than older -PDO La Niña years before 15-16. I think the record SST warming near Japan is going hand in hand with the warming in the MJO 4-7 areas. So both those features tend to promote an Aleutian ridge near the Dateline and a ridge near the Eastern US. Notice how even with such a strong El Niño this winter there was still that ridge south of the Aleutians instead of the much stronger Aleutian low typical for strong El Niños. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Figures that after a very warm winter, a cold shot will likely be coming in around the 19th for the official start of spring. But before then we could have temps in the 70s late next week, as bluewave pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 last minute wetter trend for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: last minute wetter trend for tomorrow Yup. Over a inch for the metro now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Over a inch for the metro now Thankfully it looks like our last big soaking for awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Over a inch for the metro now big shift toward a consolidated low overhead 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 19 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Figures that after a very warm winter, a cold shot will likely be coming in around the 19th for the official start of spring. But before then we could have temps in the 70s late next week, as bluewave pointed out. It's really part of the up and down pattern we've been in for awhile. Warm up, cool down on repeat, although the former tends to last longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Over a inch for the metro now 12z NAM and gfs are trending wetter vs the 06z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 A considerable change in the direction towards the south with less than 48 hours remaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 the mesos hammer us with convection near the triple point/warm front 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: big shift toward a consolidated low overhead 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the mesos hammer us with convection near the triple point/warm front 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 43 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Some additional data: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 La Nina here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 flood watch let’s gooooo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Flood Watch posted for parts of Mt. Holly CWA. They are going with 1-2" rainfall. Thankfully a drier pattern once beyond this. At least for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 2 hours ago, WX-PA said: La Nina here we come. Cold in the GOA is brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Cold in the GOA is brutal Next winter will be brutal down here. Should be better in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Some additional data: Yeah, this was also the warmest winter on record for the Northeast. First time time the region had 9 consecutive warmer than average winters in a row. With 5 top 10 warmest winters since 15-16. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 AI is consistent Just more cold air we need I'm tracking this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 well at least hurricane season will be exciting to watch after the dud of a winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI is consistent Just more cold air we need I'm tracking this It has a long range cold bias so far and will probably trend warmer like it did for the storm this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Sunshine dominated the day today. In response, the mercury rose into the middle 50s. The respite from rainfall is nearing an end with the approach of yet another storm. Tomorrow will be increasingly cloudy. Rain will arrive during the afternoon or evening hours. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. A period of drier weather will follow the storm's departure. An extended period of warmer than normal weather continues. The generally mild conditions could persist through mid-month. Afterward, there is emerging consensus on the guidance that a deep trough could develop. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no Arctic air masses are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for it to be fairly short-lived (1 to perhaps 2 weeks in duration), much as occurred in February. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 10th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has increased. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around February 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was -7.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.120 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: It has a long range cold bias so far and will probably trend warmer like it did for the storm this weekend. All the tellies are becoming favorable so we might have a slight chance. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Upton talking up moderate coastal flooding for the S Shore back bays and 8-12 foot waves for the beaches. Won't be a severe erosion event most likely since this won't have time to build up a large fetch but any amount of erosion at this point is really bad news. Nice afternoon for once. Flowers and plants are greening and blooming like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 So next winter the euro op with go out to day 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Astoria Park today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: So next winter the euro op with go out to day 15? Should be fun. The HRES is still produced and disseminated. It is meteorologically equivalent to the ENS 'control', but due to some technical and configuration differences, it does not provide completely identical outputs. The HRES runs for 10 days, while the ENS control runs for 15, and the HRES is disseminated earlier than the full ensemble forecast. Our aim is to stop using the term ‘high-resolution forecast’, or HRES, as all members of the ensemble are now also at 9 km horizontal resolution. For the next IFS upgrade, Cycle 49r1, planned for October 2024, the HRES and the ENS control are being made bit identical. Both will run to 15 days for 00 and 12 UTC. From IFS Cycle 50r1, planned for October 2025, we will stop producing the current ENS control, and the data stream that is currently called the HRES will be called ‘ENS control’ instead. This single, unperturbed forecast will continue to be made available earlier than the ensemble perturbed members, in line with the agreed dissemination schedule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmansascientist Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 I remain utterly fascinated by this Central Park stat: I've been calculating the 30 year rolling averages for temperature at Central Park. Warmest 30 year average 1995-2024: January, February, March (As long as the full monthly average is above 41.0 , which is quite likely) 1994-2023: April, September, December 1993-2022: June, July, August 1986-2015: May 1982-2011: November 1942-1971: October (All of October's top 10 30 year trends occurred in the 1960s and 1970s) I have no idea if this is random, or part of some peculiar weather system trend. But October is such a bizarre outlier on the general warming trend of NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 same story since december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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