Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Currently thinking C-2 coastal CT, 1-3 interior southern CT (mostly 2-3), 2-4 low elevation northern CT (mostly 3-4), and 3-6 (mostly 5-6) for Kev land and the NW hills. 

Weird that hrrr and gfs Continue to be so cold and thumpy. Hrrr hits nyc metro hard lol

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Not necessarily,  we had many a winter where good size storms would come through as pouring rain, and then cold as soon as the storm departed. SO many times the weather Channel 7 day had snow, and you'd slowly watch the forecast maps morph to rain as the storm approached. 

So when do you think things will finally change back to snowy for us? I mean, even the 80s had some big snowstorms so something has to break right eventually, no? Maybe have to wait until next season?

[dryslot]

HRRR lol, PF’s baby.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Weird that hrrr and gfs Continue to be so cold and thumpy. Hrrr hits nyc metro hard lol

I need to see that tomorrow to take em up. It all just seems so marginal to me. If we had a colder 925 & surface profile I’d be on board. Euro weird banding has me a little concerned too. 

[Spanks45]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I need to see that tomorrow to take em up. It all just seems so marginal to me. If we had a colder 925 & surface profile I’d be on board. Euro weird banding has me a little concerned too. 

I mean if we hadn't just endured last year and this year so far, I would be just a tad excited looking at the GFS and HRRR...but right now I just assume they are both wrong and take the warmest, least snowy model

[dendrite]

HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps. 

[Prismshine Productions]

B R U H

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[Prismshine Productions]

Now precip is back, definitely feedback issues

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[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps. 

HRRR and GFS at 18z Sunday. Maybe a little better in the preceding hours with better lift but man the lower levels are marginal verbatim. 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

NAM coming in j u i c e d

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[tunafish]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps. 

Noticed that over here with today's system.  Good callout.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

NAM coming in j u i c e d

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This could end up a decent event for us.  I’m on the 6-8” train for G’field to Bratt corridor.  

[Prismshine Productions]

This could end up a decent event for us.  I’m on the 6-8” train for G’field to Bratt corridor.  

I need 9 to get to 24" on the month...

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[tavwtby]

precip better on the NAM but still marginal temps, hope the cold flows down quick or we'll waste the thump on ptype issues, antecedent airmass is meh, but gotta say it's better than was modeled, was supposed to be in the upper 40low 50s today, never got above 35 here today, was 43 at BDL earlier at work though

[CoastalWx]

Nam is kind of a mess. These weird QPF blobs. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Nam with a good nod towards the thump idea.. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I need 9 to get to 24" on the month...

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I don’t think we’re getting there unless we can pull a powder on paste deformation band in the second part of the storm.
9” would get me over 30” for the season though.  That would be an on or above average winter pace for the upper valley: 

 

[wx2fish]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam is kind of a mess. These weird QPF blobs. 

3hr qpf looks so weird. 3k looks more solid again 

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps. 

Yup, the HRRR is prone to that.  3KM NAM too.

This look is wet, low-ratio snow or even white rain with the dark blues.

But radar p-types don’t mean or imply anything about accumulations.  Just guessing there.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

wtf is that on the nam? I’ve never seen those blobs before.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, wx2fish said:

3hr qpf looks so weird. 3k looks more solid again 

It looks elevation oriented.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, wx2fish said:

3hr qpf looks so weird. 3k looks more solid again 

So weird lol

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looks elevation oriented.

It has them all over 

[dendrite]

3k delivering the midlevel goods up here. Looks pretty slotty and showery in SNE after the initial weak WAA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

3k delivering the midlevel goods up here. Looks pretty slotty and showery in SNE after the initial weak WAA.

3k is nice NOP, toaster bath SOP.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

3k delivering the midlevel goods up here. Looks pretty slotty and showery in SNE after the initial weak WAA.

Would it shock folks if this S stream tickles more north , if confluence allows 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

3k delivering the midlevel goods up here. Looks pretty slotty and showery in SNE after the initial weak WAA.

Shocked.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Shocked.

We’ve moved on here. Hoping it’s good enough Monday somewhere in Ma that the governor calls for a day off. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nice 3K

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice 3K

That would prob be enough to get state employees a day off Monday