Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[mahk_webstah]

42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I gotta peel myself away from these models geezus I need help , it’s still a couple days away 

Next I’ll be canceling and moving around personal training clients to coincide with the euro and other model runs 

Some years ago, I got out of a client meeting (worth several K) to not miss a huge snowstorm...its a sickness

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

But the point is the model output should be enough for people to figure out how much snow they’re getting.  The clown maps with one exception seem to maximize snow for us weenies.

It would be awesome if the model outputs alone were enough for people to figure how much snow they're getting, but as we all know, the model outputs are far from perfect. The problem is that these models run so frequently (and there are so many) that it would be impossible for Pivotal or Tropical Tidbits or whoever have an analyst run through and make corrections for every run, every hour, every day. And so sometimes, often times, you get funky numbers generated that just make no sense and should have no business appearing proudly on their generated product. But they do.

I like the clown maps not necessarily because I think they are going to give me an accurate snowfall total, but they do offer a tangible, visual aid that allows me to deduce trends from run to run. Better so than someone just stating that it came north or the low was deeper, or oh, looks great for so-and-so's house, etc. And I mean, I could probably just use QPF maps to do that, but those just aren't as fun, and this is a hobby to me.

Just my two cents. 

[ORH_wxman]

Not a lot of confidence in 12z guidance…except maybe ORH county/Berks doing pretty well. Otherwise there’s all sorts of issues elsewhere (precip cutoff to the north and ptype issues south and east). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not a lot of confidence in 12z guidance…except maybe ORH county/Berks doing pretty well. Otherwise there’s all sorts of issues elsewhere (precip cutoff to the north and ptype issues south and east). 

If the mid levels get going, then I will be fine...if they don't, then I won't.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

It would be awesome if the model outputs alone were enough for people to figure how much snow they're getting, but as we all know, the model outputs are far from perfect. The problem is that these models run so frequently (and there are so many) that it would be impossible for Pivotal or Tropical Tidbits or whoever have an analyst run through and make corrections for every run, every hour, every day. And so sometimes, often times, you get funky numbers generated that just make no sense and should have no business appearing proudly on their generated product. But they do.

I like the clown maps not necessarily because I think they are going to give me an accurate snowfall total, but they do offer a tangible, visual aid that allows me to deduce trends from run to run. Better so than someone just stating that it came north or the low was deeper, or oh, looks great for so-and-so's house, etc. And I mean, I could probably just use QPF maps to do that, but those just aren't as fun, and this is a hobby to me.

Just my two cents. 

Well yes.  But knowing the models aren’t perfect doesn’t make the clowns more accurate.  Look I post and weenie out on the clowns also but I’m not sure how much value they add especially in a marginal situation like the Sunday/Monday event.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the mid levels get going, then I will be fine...if they don't, then I won't.

Agreed. I think you’ll be fine assuming you grab more than 0.6-0.7 of QPF. But if it’s intermittent crap that eventually gets you to 0.5 then it’s prob just a couple of inches of mashed potato slop. 
 

I do like the midlevel track on a lot of these runs so I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll get a nice period of moderate to heavy snow over the interior. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well yes.  But knowing the models aren’t perfect doesn’t make the clowns more accurate.  Look post and weenie out on the clowns also but I’m not sure how much value they add especially in a marginal situation like the Sunday/Monday event.

It sucks that the clowns perform poorly in marginal situations. But a ton of posters are not in a marginal situation. Now, they might run into QPF problems, but for a lot of them, they can just take the 10:1 ratio and say close enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed. I think you’ll be fine assuming you grab more than 0.6-0.7 of QPF. But if it’s intermittent crap that eventually gets you to 0.5 then it’s prob just a couple of inches of mashed potato slop. 
 

I do like the midlevel track on a lot of these runs so I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll get a nice period of moderate to heavy snow over the interior. 

Yea, same page...I'm suprisingly confident in my forecast for most of the area despite the inconsistency amongst guidance. I understand adjustments are needed south...sure.

[Snowcrazed71]

 family coming up from New York City. So I'd be okay with not having Snow during the day

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Michelle family coming up from New York City. So I'd be okay with not having less known during the day

You don’t sound that snow crazed 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You don’t sound that snow crazed 

Sounds dishonest.....In-laws or snow....in-laws or snow....Hmmmmmm

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You don’t sound that snow crazed 

Omg. That's what I get for voice texting at the dentist office. I just fixed it. Yeah I do sound crazed lol

[Prismshine Productions]

Keep in mind we are moving into the range where we need to focus on the Meso's

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sounds dishonest.....In-laws or snow....in-laws or snow....Hmmmmmm

There can’t even be hesitation when answering 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Keep in mind we are moving into the range where we need to focus on the Meso's

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I’d give it another 12-24 hours. We’re like in the 54-60 hour range right now which is kind of fringe for meso guidance. 

[CoastalWx]

NAM is north, but you can really see what dynamics do on those clown maps/sim radar. I think for cstl peeps, that's what will be needed to have a chance at something more than an inch or so. 

[dryslot]

Riding in Sn/Ip in Rangeley, Low vis, Lunchtime at Bald Mtn Camps, Don’t poke the bear.

[MaineJayhawk]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Riding in Sn/Ip in Rangeley, Low vis, Lunchtime at Bald Mtn Camps.

Is that burly fella Wolfie?

[Kitz Craver]

Hmmm, channel 3 down here calling for several inches and a plowable snow? 

[KTBFFH1905]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Riding in Sn/Ip in Rangeley, Low vis, Lunchtime at Bald Mtn Camps, Don’t poke the bear.

Love Bald Mtn for lunch!! I was just up there last weekend. We have a family camp real close to the OG. 

 

[weathafella]

I mean aside from the clowns the muthufukkas produce so maybe…..

Also, long duration but it may be a long duration of drek.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Onto feb and chasing the fraudulent Dec92 redux. 

[mreaves]

20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Riding in Sn/Ip in Rangeley, Low vis, Lunchtime at Bald Mtn Camps, Don’t poke the bear.

I saw a report on HCS that the lake is sketchy.

[8611Blizz]

The highs on Monday and Tuesday have warmed a lot from two days ago also. 

[Prismshine Productions]

The highs on Monday and Tuesday have warmed a lot from two days ago also. 

That is the monkey paw curl, we get a storm that is not squashed but the cold source is vaporized

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Chrisrotary12]

Sort of resembles a warmer version of last months storm. WAA thump then hope the mid-levels and CCB kick in. 

[moneypitmike]

I’m just going to bide my time until Will gets excited for his hood.  No need to get vested before then.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I saw a report on HCS that the lake is sketchy.

We didn’t go on the lake, Don’t trust it yet although I just saw 4 come across though.

[Damage In Tolland]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is north, but you can really see what dynamics do on those clown maps/sim radar. I think for cstl peeps, that's what will be needed to have a chance at something more than an inch or so. 

What is needed for interior elevated but south of 90?

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We didn’t go on the lake, Don’t trust it yet although I just saw 4 come across though.

Good call! Too risky still