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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr
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So in all seriousness, how is the pattern looking?  I am seeing solidly positive 2m temp anamolies for Feb 14 on the 6z GEFS and the same thing from the 00z EPS at the end of its run.  Are we still thinking this rolls into a better pattern for the second half of Feb or is it losing the progression altogether?  I know the weeklies were still looking pretty good as of yesterday. 

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1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I'm of the same opinion about 2006-07, and in fact it is actually one of the winters I've liked a lot despite the relative lack of snow.  Yeah, December 2006 sucked and January 2007 started off even worse.  But the latter part of January into early March (especially February!) turned colder with some snow and ice.  That sleetfest we got on Valentine's Day in February was oh-so-close to being a big event around here.  But damn, that month was COLD, we had at least some snow/ice pack for several weeks.

Yeah the Valentine storm could’ve been huge, but in the end it felt like a MECS even though it wasn’t. The shoveling was a huge pain.

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1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

So in all seriousness, how is the pattern looking?  I am seeing solidly positive 2m temp anamolies for Feb 14 on the 6z GEFS and the same thing from the 00z EPS at the end of its run.  Are we still thinking this rolls into a better pattern for the second half of Feb or is it losing the progression altogether?  I know the weeklies were still looking pretty good as of yesterday. 

I think we’ll get a very good stretch but it won’t be another Feb 2010.

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Just now, Fozz said:

Yeah the Valentine storm could’ve been huge, but in the end it felt like a MECS even though it wasn’t. The shoveling was a huge pain.

I recall for several days it actually DID look like we'd get some big snow out of it (like a foot or so), but as it got within the short range it looked "warmer" and like we might end up with rain.  But it was so darned cold, and it was very entrenched, that in the end it was quite the ice and sleet event...the globals were of course scouring the cold out way too fast.  I recall eastern MD got very severe icing out of that...the cold layer was shallower so they didn't get "saved" by sleet like we did a bit farther west

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Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I recall for several days it actually DID look like we'd get some big snow out of it (like a foot or so), but as it got within the short range it looked "warmer" and like we might end up with rain.  But it was so darned cold, and it was very entrenched, that in the end it was quite the ice and sleet event...the globals were of course scouring the cold out way too fast.  I recall eastern MD got very severe icing out of that...the cold layer was shallower so they didn't get "saved" by sleet like we did a bit farther west

Yeah it looked like a potential 12-18” storm, until a few days out there was a huge north trend and even talk of us getting rain instead. The overall pattern was good, but not pristine.

So in the end, we got a wintry mix and the CAD did some great work for us.

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1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I recall for several days it actually DID look like we'd get some big snow out of it (like a foot or so), but as it got within the short range it looked "warmer" and like we might end up with rain.  But it was so darned cold, and it was very entrenched, that in the end it was quite the ice and sleet event...the globals were of course scouring the cold out way too fast.  I recall eastern MD got very severe icing out of that...the cold layer was shallower so they didn't get "saved" by sleet like we did a bit farther west

Yeah I think even the night of the storm we were expecting 12 plus inches out in Winchester and it did start as snow before quickly transitioning to torrential sleet all night long. 

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11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yeah the Valentine storm could’ve been huge, but in the end it felt like a MECS even though it wasn’t. The shoveling was a huge pain.

IMO, both the 2007 and 2014 Valentine's Day storms were decent. We could've been 35 and rain the entire time, but we got frozen.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, both the 2007 and 2014 Valentine's Day storms were decent. We could've been 35 and rain the entire time, but we got frozen.

Exactly. In the end I was content in 2007.


Also were you in Reisterstown in 2014? Apparently it was a borderline HECS there.

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Exactly. In the end I was content in 2007.


Also were you in Reisterstown in 2014? Apparently it was a borderline HECS there.

No. I worked for Montgomery County, but lived in York County, PA. We worked the event and were surprised at the disparity of the snow reports. Damascus reported M21.5", but Takoma Park had M12".

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29 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

So in all seriousness, how is the pattern looking?  I am seeing solidly positive 2m temp anamolies for Feb 14 on the 6z GEFS and the same thing from the 00z EPS at the end of its run.  Are we still thinking this rolls into a better pattern for the second half of Feb or is it losing the progression altogether?  I know the weeklies were still looking pretty good as of yesterday. 

Still looks good to me, if we have temp issues with this mean longwave flow in Feb...it's time to pack it in and find a new hobby.  

GEFS.thumb.png.63c4f34ce3a7fe048aacdc8cbbd54fe4.png

GEPS.thumb.png.a60a2d021c1683016c4bcce859a4adf1.png

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Probably only 14/15 and 15/16? 

15/16 doesn't really count as that wasn't really a comeback but all of our annual snow from one storm in January.  I remember 14/15 being pretty solidly wintry - that was the year Boston got just storm after storm right?

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21 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

15/16 doesn't really count as that wasn't really a comeback but all of our annual snow from one storm in January.  I remember 14/15 being pretty solidly wintry - that was the year Boston got just storm after storm right?

December 14 was a torch. I believe NYC had less then a inch going into mid January that year but finished with over 40 

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