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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr
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It’s simply a timing issue. If that lobe off of the bowling ball over Labrador isn’t there at the exact moment that it’s currently modeled that thing will come screaming up the coast

Isn’t that our cold air source?
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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Unironically it’s where we want it at this range. I’d even take it there 5 days to go.

Problem I think is temps. Not sure they are workable

its a long shot but we'll need the TPV to be just in the right spot and strong enough to where it can provide cold air but not also interfere with our storm

or we get a 12z cmc(yesterday) type solution where the backside of it phases, we'll see what happens since tpv features are modeled horribly with long lead times

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This is a wild pattern right now. I remember way back when reading a forecaster discussion on CPC where he said models struggle with pattern changes. I think right now we are gonna see wild swings and lack of consistency. Just the nature of the pattern we are seeing.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is a wild pattern right now. I remember way back when reading a forecaster discussion on CPC where he said models struggle with pattern changes. I think right now we are gonna see wild swings and lack of consistency. Just the nature of the pattern we are seeing.

You saw this with the beginning of January when the pattern began changing - the models had a 4-5 stretch with much lower verification scores as they tried to adjust and figure out the synoptic evolution progressing.

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We all knew that we would have to go through a pattern change, and 48 hours ago, people were thrilled about the upcoming period after Feb 10th.  Now it's like the panic room in here because we are possibly "losing" the 4th/5th.  We all know that we basically have to luck into any major storms in the MA.  And currently the 4th/5th is trending more north.  So, there is no reason to shut the blinds.  Mid-Feb to mid-March is our opportunity.  

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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I would think it could be oriented as to hold a cold high over Quebec without obliterating our storm at the same time.

This scenario is such a delicate balance. 

The separation with the lobe over NE Canada is what allows the ULL to strengthen and pull northward in the first place, however that also can serve as our cold air source if we can get the surface High over Quebec to stay in position and provide CAA towards CAD regions. Current evolution on the GFS is cold enough here as you can see the negative 850 mb temps being pulled into the DMV area as the low bombs off-shore but the lack of precip means there is no cooling at the surface which explains the surface temps in the mid/upper 30s.  If the NS energy moves too far offshore, the cold air source is now gone and we are left with marginal temps at best. A phase would allow a bomb off the coast and the colder temps to be pulled in, but that scenario needs perfect timing for the phase...

The players are all on the table though.

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the upper level LP is still closed off down south which makes it more likely to ride up the coast as opposed to an open wave and is trending more north each model run - whether areas in the mid-Atlantic NYC and points further south get frozen will depend then on the position and timing of the HP in southern Canada

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_29.png

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ehhhh NYC has pulled comebacks like that before. we've had periods where we've gotten 30" in 3-4 weeks. north into CT? really hard sell

I don't recall many comebacks (at least when I lived there in the 2010s) given what the area has gotten so far.  Don S will tell you the probabilities of reaching climo in NYC at this point.

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7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I don't recall many comebacks (at least when I lived there in the 2010s) given what the area has gotten so far.  Don S will tell you the probabilities of reaching climo in NYC at this point.

Probably only 14/15 and 15/16? 

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12 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I don't recall many comebacks (at least when I lived there in the 2010s) given what the area has gotten so far.  Don S will tell you the probabilities of reaching climo in NYC at this point.

2006-07 was an underrated winter here. On paper it wasn’t that great, but we had weeks of deep winter and bitter cold with a lot of sleet and a lot of light snow.

The first half was a horrible blowtorch but the second half was a lot of fun even if the numbers don’t show it.

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7 minutes ago, Fozz said:

2006-07 was an underrated winter here. On paper it wasn’t that great, but we had weeks of deep winter and bitter cold with a lot of sleet and a lot of light snow.

The first half was a horrible blowtorch but the second half was a lot of fun even if the numbers don’t show it.

Greatest sleet storm of my life. Valentine’s Day 2014. 6-7 inches of sleet in Winchester and then it froze solid and didn’t melt for a month. I remember at my apartment complex we were parking on top of 6 inch blocks of ice for weeks 

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10 minutes ago, Fozz said:

2006-07 was an underrated winter here. On paper it wasn’t that great, but we had weeks of deep winter and bitter cold with a lot of sleet and a lot of light snow.

The first half was a horrible blowtorch but the second half was a lot of fun even if the numbers don’t show it.

I'm of the same opinion about 2006-07, and in fact it is actually one of the winters I've liked a lot despite the relative lack of snow.  Yeah, December 2006 sucked and January 2007 started off even worse.  But the latter part of January into early March (especially February!) turned colder with some snow and icy type events.  That sleetfest we got on Valentine's Day in February was oh-so-close to being a big event around here.  But damn, that month was COLD, we had at least some snow/ice pack for several weeks.

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