Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Not looking at the models till I get home, but I’m not looking for another trend. Just hold the line is all I ask 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: This is also kinda incorrect. The Euro shows 4-5” totals up towards Mt.PSU, whereas a model like the ICON, GGEM, RGEM have a 2-4 distro… I understand. I was looking at the 10:1 total for Augusta from 12z at only 1.8. This is well under the GFS at 3.1 and GEM at 4.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS has enough snow overnight tonight to verify the SWS in the metro... close to WWA in the counties NWS picked out too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Yeah...about that... The Rapid Refresh Forecast System -- RRFS -- will ultimately replace the current CAMs, including the NAM, HRRR, ARW, ARW2, and HREF suite. Many aren't on board with that, at least right now, given (a) the poor verification of the RRFS at this point, and (2) while the RRFS is an ensemble, it's ensembles are of the same system. Whereas the HREF is comprised of an ensemble of multiple (different) systems. Not looking forward to that day...hopefully it'll be put off. Rapid Refresh Forecast System GSL, NCEP/EMC, and other partners are working together on a project to design a single-model, convection-allowing, ensemble-based data assimilation, and forecasting system called the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS). This project aims to develop advanced high-resolution data-assimilation techniques and ensemble-forecasting methods while supporting the unification and simplification of the NCEP modeling suite around the FV3 model. (<-- But the FV3 has been pretty crappy verification-wise). Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2024 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). Experimental runs of the HRRRE at GSL are focused particularly on: Improving 0-12 h high-resolution forecasts through ensemble-based, multi-scale data assimilation Producing spread in 0-36 h ensemble forecasts through initial-condition perturbations, boundary-condition perturbations, and stochastic physics. GSL is the owner and responsible for all data in this AWS S3 Bucket. Sounds like they’re having a hard time coming up with a quality system. Oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Not looking at the models till I get home, but I’m not looking for another trend. Just hold the line is all I ask This 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, stormtracker said: yeah, looks like it evens out. Looks the same as 12z. no huge changes I like seeing the ass hair more amped early and the axis of precip. need to beef up that back end now since the first batch is looking a fair bit wetter. Mesos will be our asset moving into tonight and the overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS has enough snow overnight tonight to verify the SWS in the metro... close to WWA in the counties NWS picked out too Yeah looks like about 1” tonight/tomorrow morning for the metro areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 ends at around 19-20z Tuesday. 2 to 4 area wide...4 -6 northern neck, DT land 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 18z GFS snow begins at 9z Monday Looks like maybe even earlier Midnight to 6 am tonight : 0.5"-1" Then Lull Then resumes around 1 pm and snows periodically until 3 am - but with some lulls : 2-3" End total 2-4" That said, I doubt it has the timing and meso features correct, EDIT - I was looking at the RRFS at the end for totals lol..corrected above 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: wetter still at 36...12z was light precip at the same hour...now it's darker green Keep talking dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Nice run for Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: Keep talking dirty It evened out..about the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Damn, DC approaching 5” on the Kuchera map. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Still getting heavier and moving NW 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Looks like maybe even earlier Midnight to 6 am tonight : 0.5"-1" Then Lull Then resumes around 1 pm and snows periodically until 2 am - but with some lulls : 1-2" End total 1-3" So a bit drier than the others That said, I doubt it has the timing and meso features correct, so I wouldnt sweat it too much idk with Kuchera this matches the LWX forecast. We la la lock it up with cushion on all sides 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, clskinsfan said: Nice run for Richmond. You misspelled Short Pump 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Still getting heavier and moving NW I think there is still room for improvement…call me crazy 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: idk with Kuchera this matches the LWX forecast. We la la lock it up with cushion on all sides yall can have 5 if I get my 3, happy. But ya know it could verify a bit NW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 low looks slightly stronger ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 You love to see it. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: idk with Kuchera this matches the LWX forecast. We la la lock it up with cushion on all sides I edited my post...I somehow switched to the RRFS and thought I was looking at the GFS. Too many tabs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, DDweatherman said: yall can have 5 if I get my 3, happy. But ya know it could verify a bit NW Yeah the purples will verify NW right over DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, StormyClearweather said: You love to see it. Short Pump it up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Hopefully this will verify for DT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z GFS vs 12z https://ibb.co/mvmTR4x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 We need purples. If I can see purples south of me, I need more trends NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It evened out..about the same as 12z It was a slight improvement I think 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 18z GFS vs 12z https://ibb.co/mvmTR4x Snow is for closers only. Let's get it done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: We need purples. If I can see purples south of me, I need more trends NW You talk like this and all I want is the 1” that might happen tonight. That’s my most snow in 2 years 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: wetter still at 36...12z was light precip at the same hour...now it's darker green The blacker the berry... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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