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Jan 11-13th Blizzard


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This should be significantly better than the last system as currently modeled for the immediate metro. 0c 850mb barely gets into southern cook county and has an E/W orientation at the storms peak while the last one had 0c 850 into DuPage and Lake counties. 925mb was also well above freezing in the last storm. I’m not ruling out a jog north which could put that in jeopardy, but as progged it is a different ballgame. Ratios will be very poor, probably 8:1 type.

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1 minute ago, mimillman said:

This should be significantly better than the last system as currently modeled for the immediate metro. 0c 850mb barely gets into southern cook county and has an E/W orientation at the storms peak while the last one had 0c 850 into DuPage and Lake counties. 925mb was also well above freezing in the last storm. I’m not ruling out a jog north which could put that in jeopardy, but as progged it is a different ballgame. Ratios will be very poor, probably 8:1 type.

The lake isn't your friend with this storm. It's going to be a white rain downtown more than likely.

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The lake isn't your friend with this storm. It's going to be a white rain downtown more than likely.

Perhaps with lighter returns yes. Under heavier bands and a deepening low, it should rip and stack quickly. The low is slightly further east and temps in the upper atmosphere are significantly more favorable than the last storm. Granted, the last storm we got nothing, so it’s a low bar.

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15 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Perhaps with lighter returns yes. Under heavier bands and a deepening low, it should rip and stack quickly. The low is slightly further east and temps in the upper atmosphere are significantly more favorable than the last storm. Granted, the last storm we got nothing, so it’s a low bar.

:yikes:

image.thumb.png.6d4d2217334890c921b706200a835799.png

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28 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

:yikes:

image.thumb.png.6d4d2217334890c921b706200a835799.png

Troll game still on point. Nice to see.

Euro did pretty good with the last storm, 3-4 days out compared to the other guidance. Only problem it has, along with other models, is it’s too generous around the southern/eastern edges of the wintry part of the storm, especially in very marginal air masses. I think I-80 and north in LOT’s CWA stands a good chance at 6-10”. And then obviously up through WI and then MI. IA good for a decent hit of WAA snows. For MBY, it’s a 99% rainer with a few token flakes at the end. Thankfully, this is the final big rainstorm for awhile. I’ll show myself back out the door now…

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1 minute ago, Chicago WX said:

Troll game still on point. Nice to see.

Euro did pretty good with the last storm, 3-4 days out compared to the other guidance. Only problem it has, along with other models, is it’s too generous around the southern/eastern edges of the wintry part of the storm, especially in very marginal air masses. I think I-80 and north in LOT’s CWA stands a good chance at 6-10”. And then obviously up through WI and then MI. IA good for a decent hit of WAA snows. For MBY, it’s a 99% rainer with a few token flakes at the end. Thankfully, this is the final big rainstorm for awhile. I’ll show myself back out the door now…

We are the kings of cold steady rain. Never should have moved south of 80

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So much potential wasted with this pattern. I received .3” of slush Monday night that melted in 2 hours and Friday looks no different. The cherry on top? Arctic cold and dry for the foreseeable future. Hopefully someone gets in some hotness here. 

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19 minutes ago, King James said:

We are the kings of cold steady rain. Never should have moved south of 80

There’s a reason snowfall averages increase the further north you go. Alas, northwest suburbs were crying in the 20-21 and 21-22 winters while we were getting hit good. Sh*t happens…

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14 hours ago, Stebo said:

Oh yeah totally love it. At this point I'm just going to stop talking about this storm because the minute I say anything it blows up in my face. Congrats Chicago

Yep, another one in the books for SEMI and SW Ontario i am afraid.  Slush and then rain and then frozen hell with nothing good on the ground.

 

 

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Man the warm nose with this is BRUTAL. The low actually looks to potentially track more se than last one but still showing a lot of precip type issues because of that warm nose. Of course we couldn't get the arctic air in time for this. I'm actually a bit more nervous with this one versus last. Hoping we can see a correction se like with yesterday's storm last second. Same areas that just scored big may do it again with this one. I really hate El Nino winters. 

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Just now, Radtechwxman said:

Man the warm nose with this is BRUTAL. The low actually looks to potentially track more se than last one but still showing a lot of precip type issues because of that warm nose. Of course we couldn't get the arctic air in time for this. I'm actually a bit more nervous with this one versus last. Hoping we can see a correction se like with yesterday's storm last second. Same areas that just scored big may do it again with this one. I really hate El Nino winters. 

All I’m asking for is 3-4 to at least give it a winter vibe next week vs a frozen wasteland vibe. But this is why model watching is fun. Will see if we get a major change today

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Plan is for me to do the forecast for the storm today. Definitely a risk with ptypes into the metro, though recall that GHD II started out pretty warm too. So hopefully we find a happy medium. The Chicago shore could be a bigger issue again.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Plan is for me to do the forecast for the storm today. Definitely a risk with ptypes into the metro, though recall that GHD II started out pretty warm too. So hopefully we find a happy medium. The Chicago shore could be a bigger issue again.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I wonder if you will use the phrase "white rain" for this area :lol:

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