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Jan 11-13th Blizzard


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8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

EPS v GEFS shaping up to be an all-time model rumble considering just a few days out now

I know it doesn't mean jack diddly but wasn't the current storm also Euro NW and GFS SE by a bit and then the GFS trended into agreement? Or am I IIRCing wrong

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Still overamplified, its not hard to understand with minimal phasing that we aren't getting a sub 970mb low. Remember what today was supposed to be, in the low 970s and right now its about 10mb weaker than that.

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Just now, Malacka11 said:

I know it doesn't mean jack diddly but wasn't the current storm also Euro NW and GFS SE by a bit and then the GFS trended into agreement? Or am I IIRCing wrong

Euro/NAM had it tracking north of you guys or right over. The low is in Central IL where the GFS had it.

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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Still overamplified, its not hard to understand with minimal phasing that we aren't getting a sub 970mb low. Remember what today was supposed to be, in the low 970s and right now its about 10mb weaker than that.

Eh? The Euro/EPS is stronger because the primary shortwave is deeper and more organized than on the GFS, not really due to phasing.

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54 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

On some real shit the Euro, ICON and Ukie all show a very similar outcome. CMC in between a bit, GFS also just a bit of a NW trend from at least a good storm in NIL if not a mega bomb.

Still a lot to sort out. Icon has a further qest track but also throws a lot more snow out this. UK kind of between Icon and Euro for here with CMC and gfs pretty much in agreement with each other. Ensemble means for all three seem to be following their ops.

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

check out this lobe

image.thumb.png.fda1c1ce9a73760253b58ec323655cc8.png

I live at ground zero of that creature (5 mi n of border about 50 west of Idaho panhandle), and we may be close to -20 F by then with 3' of snow on ground (already 18" and not done snowing). Being in mountains we rarely go below -20 F locally, -40 in Calgary AB usually means about -15 F locally.  

Still believe an extreme outcome is quite plausible for w GL region on 1/12-13, and a large component of ORD snow was always going to be lake effect so track is not as big a factor as gradient and duration. But I do see a range from 6" to 15" in play, and conditions between snowstorm and severe blizzard remain possible. 

Wave is coming onshore now BC to OR, will be dropping s.e. into Idaho by tonight into early Wed. Better sampling will presumably lead to model consensus and a stronger idea of actual outcome by Wed 18z and Thurs 00z runs.

T ursday additional snow potential is a bonus also (now looks 2-5"). 

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