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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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MJO812
MJO812

Henry Marguisity  

BxEngine
BxEngine

Can we take the psycho analysis and the fake pessimism and the fake optimism somewhere else and stick to the weather? Holy hell this is impossible to read. 

Stormlover74
Stormlover74

You heard keno lock up the thread close up shop

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

1001 off obx compared to 996 inland of NC on 00z 

I think there were initialization errors in this run doesn't seem organized like the other models and the 0Z EURO

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ne.png

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vegan_edible

vegan_edible

Posted
Posted
Just now, Franklin0529 said:

More then one run. Every model has this basically nothing for city south an east. 

true, i think due to my location i've been looking into mid-upper westchester. but i still see some potential for nyc to break the streak at least

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
Just now, NEG NAO said:

I think there were initialization errors in this run doesn't seem organized like the other models and the 0Z EURO

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ne.png

Or maybe it's run with a junk storm . Still days to iron this but the coast is toast ( NYC, NJ , LI )

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So we went from suppression to being too amped.

I thought this was going to be suppressed due to the 50 50 and ridge breaking down. 

We knew that the trough out west was gonna be a problem. That along with a borderline airmass in place to begin with meant this was a real thread the needle situation. Doesn't mean the NYC area can't get lucky, but it's only a slight chance. We'll still track it as long as we have a chance, but I'm not optimistic. 

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Or maybe it's run with a junk storm . Still days to iron this but the coast is toast ( NYC, NJ , LI )

It's not even snowing much elsewhere in the region. My BIL had 9 inches a couple weeks ago in ME but the last big rains storm washed it all away. He hates snow though so is happy about that. I'm learning that life without snow is not so bad....though it is obviously abnormal around here, we have been hearing for decades we would be losing frequent snowstorms one of these days in these parts. After 2 years ( the 2022 storms were not much for me ) of hardly anything, I'm just not that worried about it. What does worry me is that I was tossing the ball to the dogs yesterday and a fly landed on my head....it's January. You can't convince me that is ok.....give it two weeks and if we are in the same damp pattern, I'd give up. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

We knew that the trough out west was gonna be a problem. That along with a borderline airmass in place to begin with meant this was a real thread the needle situation. Doesn't mean the NYC area can't get lucky, but it's only a slight chance. We'll still track it as long as we have a chance, but I'm not optimistic. 

When you look at the broader picture and forget about the small differences in low placement/clown snow maps etc you see how this is more likely to turn out. If you’re driving in easterly mild air and you have the digging trough out west without strong enough confluence to force an early redevelopment/shove east, you get a lousy outcome near the coast. I would look at these bigger picture items vs changes in one run or model vs the next. That “big picture” points to the classic I-95 or just NW rain snow line storm. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Regardless of the exact track I'm honestly surprised by the meh QPF on the 12z Euro. I would think it would be more than .75 or so given the source region and tapping some atlantic moisture. Pretty weak if you ask me. 

I haven’t looked at the run but it seemed on other modeling that the S/W is weakening some as it approaches our area. That would reduce lift and therefore precip. 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Look at the maps. The LP is way too tucked into the NJ coast.

WX/PT

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png

When you figure that southern branch storms correct their surface low tracks further west/north within the final 78 hours, this has bad news written all over it. Marginal airmass, warm SSTs along the coast still, weakening confluence, boundary level flow coming from the east, surface low tracking close, trough in the west, midlevel lows closing off too close for comfort. Plus, as @bluewave said before, the SE ridge pump is always underestimated in setups like this, as is sneaky warm noses. One you get thunderstorms blowing up in the south, which is guaranteed too happen, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is only going to serve to pump the SE ridge even further. I’ll take the under on this storm, not just for the city and the coast but north and west of the city too. This is an I-84 north special IMO 

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When you figure that southern branch storms correct their surface low tracks further west/north within the final 78 hours, this has bad news written all over it. Marginal airmass, warm SSTs along the coast still, weakening confluence, boundary level flow coming from the east, surface low tracking close, trough in the west, midlevel lows closing off too close for comfort. Plus, as @bluewave said before, the SE ridge pump is always underestimated in setups like this, as is sneaky warm noses. One you get thunderstorms blowing up in the south, which is guaranteed too happen, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is only going to serve to pump the SE ridge even further. I’ll take the under on this storm, not just for the city and the coast but north and west of the city too. This is an I-84 north special IMO 

This !  All of this !

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Regardless of the exact track I'm honestly surprised by the meh QPF on the 12z Euro. I would think it would be more than .75 or so given the source region and tapping some atlantic moisture. Pretty weak if you ask me. 

Like I said previously - its obvious there were initialization errors and not all data was fed into it

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  • wdrag changed the title to Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
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