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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh I wouldn't put too much stock into that just yet. That is highly dependent on the mid-week storm. I would not be too surprised if we saw that get shunted south and east a bit and we don't really warm sector at all.

That's good that it's on the table and we should get out first measurable of the season here in Death Valley over the weekend.

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3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

That's good that it's on the table and we should get out first measurable of the season here in Death Valley over the weekend.

You didn't get any in November? I know Westfield and Springfield did in some areas

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5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

You didn't get any in November? I know Westfield and Springfield did in some areas

There was that one event the few days before Thanksgiving where Westfield did get a few inches, but at least where I am in Springfield we got nada...maybe just some flakes. Did have that Friday where we got snow showers all day and had a Trace but that is about it.

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That does show that 1/10 even on the EPS is still a legit threat for NNE. OP run was the warmest outlier. Hopefully we can trend that even colder further south. There’s some competing forces though so it’s certainly possible the warmer idea wins out too. 
 

 

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

(psst, i think there's a chance that whole system decays into sw flow producer)

We've definitely seen that happen a couple times lately. Of course I don't remember storms like Will, so no idea exactly, but do recall a couple Day 7 cutters morphing into SWFEs or non-events.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That does show that 1/10 even on the EPS is still a legit threat for NNE. OP run was the warmest outlier. Hopefully we can trend that even colder further south. There’s some competing forces though so it’s certainly possible the warmer idea wins out too. 
 

 

How about SNE?

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32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How about SNE?

Pray 

W drag and Don are putting up graphics for big flooding so I mean

..my guess is in CT you melt your snow (that we assume accumulates Sunday ) and see 2-3” rain on top that of that 

Need major changes for CT to see a net gain but I suppose at 8 days out that can happen. 

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

You didn't get any in November? I know Westfield and Springfield did in some areas

I think just east of here (Westfield) missed out. We had two inches at the house here but just a few miles down the road in Simsbury at my shop we didn't even have a dusting

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15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Pray 

W drag and Don are putting up graphics for big flooding so I mean

..my guess is in CT you melt your snow (that we assume accumulates Sunday ) and see 2-3” rain on top that of that 

Need major changes for CT to see a net gain but I suppose at 8 days out that can happen. 

Like I said if it’s rain let’s go 60 and screams rather than 39.4 rain 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

There was that one event the few days before Thanksgiving where Westfield did get a few inches, but at least where I am in Springfield we got nada...maybe just some flakes. Did have that Friday where we got snow showers all day and had a Trace but that is about it.

From the Granville MA East Hartland line down to Barkhamstead there was about an inch or so In that event before Thanksgiving

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This current 1/7 storm def is more of an El Niño flavor…I was more referring to the pattern that follows. Very La Niña as we start building SE ridge and western trough. Hopefully blocking is good enough to keep us on the cold side most of the time. 
 

 

That said, Euro doesn’t want to cooperate much with the 1:10 threat. Not nearly as CADish and cold as the other 12z guidance. We’ll see what EPS says in a bit. 

Basically on the same page... I think some folks a dismissing the possible -NAO impacts on 1/10 storm; given the time range I would be careful that wintery impacts won't occur further south into parts of interior SNE...  

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8 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

How have the ensembles been trending with that one?

They’ve been trending colder overall. But it’s not been a straight line trend. A bit noisy but it’s def a colder look than 48-60 hours ago. 
 

But it could easily trend warmer like the OP Euro today too. It’s 8 days away so we’re not gonna know a whole lot more until probably later this week. 

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