January 2024

[Allsnow]

56 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Anchorage averaging 2.6°F below normal for both December and January and snowfall has been more than twice normal.  They had a 16" snowfall this week, which is a biggy for Anchorage and current snow depth is 37".  Plus they might come close to some record lows over the next week.

Two days of 37” snow depth. Last time that happened was 1959

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Two days of 37” snow depth. Last time that happened was 1959

Patterns where they get deep winter we usually torch. The roaring Pacific jet goes south of them, keeps cold air bottled up there and plenty of storms. We want cold dislodged from there to make it here. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Patterns where they get deep winter we usually torch. The roaring Pacific jet goes south of them, keeps cold air bottled up there and plenty of storms. We want cold dislodged from there to make it here. 

why is it so hard for everyone to be cold at the same time?

when was the last time that happened-- 1979?

[donsutherland1]

Through 1 pm, New York City has had 273 hours with overcast conditions. 21 days have seen overcast conditions at 1 pm. That is the most days for any month at 1 pm.

[Roger Smith]

On 1/28/2024 at 5:46 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks. I'm not on there all the time. I've followed you.

The above is an interesting list. I suspect a number of those weakest entries will be surpassed in the next decade.

 

DON ... Re Twitter (X) I am also not a frequent poster, I created an account to be able to read or follow, not to post my own material, I don't think I have posted more than half a dozen of my own in ten years, so you're basically following a void as far as seeing any interesting material from me. I will follow your feed especially if there are to be consequences for outrageous tweets, I love me some consequences. A warning, I am a bit of a libertarian conservative but I agree with you on climate and coffee anyway. The other stuff is not as important. 

I sort of dedicated my life to studying natural variability of climate not paying much attention (in late 1970s) to global cooling and perhaps at first being a bit skeptical about global warming (having just come out of global cooling) but for quite a while now my basic position has been, let's unravel AGW and natural variability, except recently I am starting to wonder if AGW is just overwhelming all forms of natural variability and creating one bland uber-climate that has only two or three variations. Out west here we still get lots of cold and below normal temps (as you know) or if not that, heat waves. I don't think we're going to fix this climate and we're probably going to have to adapt to it, my hope is that a natural cold signal will fight back and we'll be glad to have the extra greenhouse gas at some point, but will that be 2080 or 5080 or 25080 AD? (By 25080 I doubt that anyone will know what AD refers to, possibly a new count will begin, and also even by 5080 most of the excess will be gone -- we never know what technology could develop in our future and perhaps carbon sequestration will work, so far it is very much in its infant stages). 

What is the new verb for tweet, as in "I tweeted ..." is it "I exed ..." or just "I did the musk." Perhaps Donald Trump will buy X from Elon and call it "Trumpet Voluntary" so when you tweet (or X) you can trump. I think perhaps you trumped that guy with his snowfall map anyway (unless it is 1888). 

 

[Roger Smith]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 1 pm, New York City has had 273 hours with overcast conditions. 21 days have seen overcast conditions at 1 pm. That is the most days for any month at 1 pm.

The ultimate low bar for sunshine hours was January 1953 on what used to be called the Queen Charlotte Islands west of BC (nowadays it's haida gwaii) ... zero sunshine. So it can happen (without polar night). 

It  is also very cloudy out west recently, we got a few minutes of sun yesterday, first time in weeks. I blame Pacific Ocean (cause of all our problems). 

[Rjay]

Snowing on the barrier islands along the south shore.  

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Patterns where they get deep winter we usually torch. The roaring Pacific jet goes south of them, keeps cold air bottled up there and plenty of storms. We want cold dislodged from there to make it here. 

I was thinking of some of the claims that it would take a long time to reload cold air into Canada.

[NorthShoreWx]

23 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Snowing on the barrier islands along the south shore.  

I took a group out for a hike in Calverton this afternoon and it was spitting tiny graupel most of the time.  I even told them what graupel was.

[donsutherland1]

Generally dry weather will continue through much or all of the week, even as some flurries or drizzle is possible overnight. Clouds could persist into or through Thursday.

January will wind up as a solidly warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions will likely continue through the first week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late in the week. There has been some increase in uncertainty concerning the timing of such an evolution.

The overall February outlook remains uncertain. The outcome will be a function of often counteracting forces: the decay of the strong El Niño/ENSO region developments, concurrent marine heatwaves, shifting teleconnections, tropical convection, and ongoing background warming, among other factors. The ECMWF weeklies continue to show a shift toward a sustained colder pattern near mid-month, which would be consistent with strong El Niño climatology. However, there are some cautionary notes.

For example, if the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averages +0.15°C or above, that typically results in a warmer, less snowy outcome for New York City for February cases with ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of +0.50°C or above than those with a colder average anomaly for Region 1+2 (NYC monthly mean temperature: 35.0° vs. 31.2°; NYC average monthly snowfall: 6.0" vs. 16.4"). February 2016 (4.0") was a recent example of a warmer Region 1+2 case. February 2010 (36.9") was a recent example of a colder Region 1+2 cases. There can be exceptions. One exception was February 1983 that saw 21.5" of snow, largely from a major blizzard, despite an average Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.55°C.

No snowfall is expected through the remainder of January. In New York City, there were 19 winters that saw less than 3" of snow through January 31st. The mean snowfall for the remainder of the snow season for those winters was 11.4". The median snowfall was 10.4". The highest snowfall was 38.9" in 1914 with a blizzard on March 1-2 bringing 14.5" of snow. The historic figures for all winters are 14.6" and 11.8" respectively.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -18.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.973 today.

On January 28 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.393 (RMM). The January 27-adjusted amplitude was 2.521 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.0° (3.3° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

The ultimate low bar for sunshine hours was January 1953 on what used to be called the Queen Charlotte Islands west of BC (nowadays it's haida gwaii) ... zero sunshine. So it can happen (without polar night). 

It  is also very cloudy out west recently, we got a few minutes of sun yesterday, first time in weeks. I blame Pacific Ocean (cause of all our problems). 

I'm not surprised that somewhere in BC had zero sunshine. I suspect that somewhere in the Pacific Northwest would be the place to achieve it.

[wdrag]

flurries expanding NYC/LI at 650 PM and am pretty sure interior NNJ will see 0.1- to iso 1" ridges ne PA and SC nw NJ by unrise whereever temps now 33F or colder.  It's modeled -8C at the top of moist layer near 850MB...so ice nuclei available. That may disappear toward sunrise when snow changes to drizzle/freezing drizzle-sleet then gradually end. by Noon. SFC temp determines whether freezing or non.   I think there's a pretty good chance of whitening of the ground..maybe not CP but outskirts of the urban centers have a very good chance of whitening, especially NNJ-ne PA.   Enjoy whatever happens.

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[psv88]

Still above freezing 

[Roger Smith]

Record highs all over BC today, 15 to 18 C widespread. We have lost about 2/3 of our snow pack in the past week due to warm temperatures and rain. 

It's probably a good sign for your winter hopes, as long as warmth goes north more than east. 

Pebble Beach golf this weekend faces prospects of local hail showers, could be an interesting watch for weather rather than golf. 

On the other hand it was record warm in BC around this date in 1998 too. 

[Cyg]

Some mood wintery mix while I was walking before. Had a little sleet roll through at the beginning of my walk with a snow shower on the tail end.

[Nibor]

Snowing here. 

[donsutherland1]

Flurries in Larchmont.

[MJO812]

Flurries here

[Islandersguy]

Ocean effect flurries in white plains. What’s the main reason we don’t get more of this? 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Islandersguy said:

Ocean effect flurries in white plains. What’s the main reason we don’t get more of this? 

I wish we can get ocean effect snow like lake effect snow .

[Rjay]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wish we can get ocean effect snow like lake effect snow .

Move to nw Japan

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, Islandersguy said:

Ocean effect flurries in white plains. What’s the main reason we don’t get more of this? 

If you want to build an island 150 miles or so SE of here you can probably enjoy it every time we have strong NW wind CAA in the winter. That’s been rare though. 

[Nibor]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wish we can get ocean effect snow like lake effect snow .

Move to the west coast above 5K feet

[NorthShoreWx]

As of 1/29, 6.49" precipitation here for January.  Add that to the 10.23" for December and its a 2-month total of 16.72".  Kinda wet!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The ultimate low bar for sunshine hours was January 1953 on what used to be called the Queen Charlotte Islands west of BC (nowadays it's haida gwaii) ... zero sunshine. So it can happen (without polar night). 

It  is also very cloudy out west recently, we got a few minutes of sun yesterday, first time in weeks. I blame Pacific Ocean (cause of all our problems). 

It has been one of the main culprits of our recent lousy winters. Wish we could drain it like a swimming pool. 

[wdrag]

This part of Wantage 0.1" very fine flake snowfall and still ongoing at 31.5. No problems on pavement. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Light snow falling. About 1/4" covering everything but treated road. 30°

[IrishRob17]

Light tiny flake snowfall here, 32/30

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Had some ice on my car the way into work from lynbrook. So it was either melted snow that froze or freezing drizzle. Currently on the uws everything just wet.