MJO812 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Next week looks like rain for the coast Too early to say that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The January 9-10, 2024 storm behaved quite well relative to expectations. Much of the region saw a general 1"-3" rainfall with some locally higher amounts. Winds gusted as high as 72 mph in the region. Another significant storm will affect the region later this week. January 12-13, 2024: Confidence in the storm remains high. An intensifying storm will bring moderate to heavy rain to the region (generally 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts of 2.00" or more). Gusty winds and coastal flooding are likely. The temperature will again surge into the 50s across the region. The same storm will bring Chicago a 6"-12" snowfall with potentially more. January 16-18, 2024: Low-to-Medium Confidence: Generally, the ECMWF had been hinting at a significant snowstorm during this range. Unlike with the January 6-7 event that was a very low ratio snowfall in parts of the region except well north and west of New York City and Newark, this storm would likely feature more typical ratios as per the guidance with the snowy outcomes. A few GFS runs subsequently picked up on the storm (as primarily a snowstorm) but the model abandoned that idea afterward. Overall, support for the snowstorm idea has not been strong or consistent. Ensemble support has recently decreased. On the 1/10 0z EPS, 29% of members had 1" or more snow in New York City while 20% had 4" or more. The 3-cycle averages were 46% and 25% respectively. At present, it is somewhat more likely than not that the New York City and Philadelphia areas won't see a moderate or greater snowstorm. It's a closer call for the Boston area. The arrival of the season's coldest weather so far by the middle of next week remains on course. New York City could see its low temperatures fall into the lower 20s or even the teens at the height of the cold. Elsewhere, Buffalo will end its record stretch without a low temperature in the teens, which will reach 319 days today. In doing so, Buffalo will record its latest first teens of the season. The old record was January 3 during winters 2015-16 and 2021-22. Four of Buffalo's five first teens in January (2023-24 is counted) have occurred since winter 2000-01. Buffalo's seasonal records go back to winter 1874-75. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, MJO812 said: Too early to say that It's also too early to say next week looks like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I’m not sure what happens in February yet. Going to depend on whether the MJO can propogate in 8-1-2 I think it dies in 6 or 7 based on trends last 2 days. The GEFS/EPS is clearly both going down on amplitude now through 5-6. The key then is for it to not re-emerge at all into 3-4-5 before mid to late March. If it can just be dormant we'd probably have a good 4-6 week period with chances. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ensembles are way weaker so this storm isn't set in stone yet. 6z GFS caught on to idea of a coastal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like we may continue with the same storm track issues next week. Either a strung out and weak storm not able to pull in the colder air from the NW for coastal sections. Or a super amped storm like the Euro that draws in warm air off the Atlantic. My hunch is some blend of the 00z Euro and 06Z GFS happens.....historically in El Ninos we can count on the GFS in these types of storms to totally screw up the SRN stream but often can beat the Euro on the NRN stream...that said if you assume that now based on both models you can argue a SRN stream wave midway between both and a NRN stream that maybe digs less...your idea is certainly possible from that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's also too early to say next week looks like snow IMO right now we will start as snow in I-95 for a couple hours then mix back and forth for several hours with LI and coastal NJ going to plain rain and then as the storm starts to intensify pulling in much colder air and everyone changes back to snow subject to timing changes as various models evolve this is definitely thread worthy and please don't combine with any other event.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO right now we will start as snow in I-95 for a couple hours then mix back and forth for several hours with LI and coastal NJ going to plain rain and then as the storm starts to intensify pulling in much colder air and everyone changes back to snow subject to timing changes as various models evolve this is definitely thread worthy and please don't combine with any other event.... So last week Part 2. Yes, no more combo threads please. That was a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 We’re not going to know anything for sure for next week until that weekend cutter comes through. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Topped out at 57F shortly after midnight. Nearly 2 inches of water in the rain bucket this AM. Currently 47F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Nov - Jan (so far) rain totals EWR: NOV: 2.91 Dec: 7.54 Jan: 2.88 NYC: Nov: 2.95 Dec: 6.71 Jan: 2.67 LGA: Nov: 2.77 DEC: 6.71 Jan: 3.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 32 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Nov - Jan (so far) rain totals EWR: NOV: 2.91 Dec: 7.54 Jan: 2.88 NYC: Nov: 2.95 Dec: 6.71 Jan: 2.67 LGA: Nov: 2.77 DEC: 6.71 Jan: 3.10 And most of that since 11/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 How did everyone do regarding power and sump pumps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Nice gfs solution for next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice gfs solution for next Tuesday weaker and further east is what we need apparently to get all frozen 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, NEG NAO said: weaker and further east is what we need apparently to get all frozen Then the cold air comes pouring in after that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 14 minutes ago, North and West said: How did everyone do regarding power and sump pumps? 3.41" - Pump ran and did its job. Did not lose power so generator did not kick in to save the day. Pump does not run frequently here. Except for Ida rains it rarely ran in the 5 years prior. Lately has been running much more frequently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Cmc is a scraper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Icon 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 There was a nice improvement on the 12z GFS and GGEM runs. All of the region picks up a light snowfall for 1/16-17 on the guidance, parts of New England see a moderate snowfall. The GGEM has a more robust solution. There still remains considerable uncertainty. Hopefully, continuity and consistency among the guidance can develop over the next few days. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is a scraper 3-5 with low formation along the boundary 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is a scraper just like the gfs weaker and off the coast because there is no denying that push of arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Not a classic setup by any means this weekend, but the pair of storms this week is actually helping to pull this storm north, but not too far for a decent portion of the coverage area. I'm optimistic with what we have on the table. Thinking a fairly classic late day/overnight quick hitter and outta here. Cold behind it, which aligns with the monthly view. The only pause I have at this stage is the amp risk. Less needs to 'go right' to produce snow with this one than the storm this past weekend however. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice gfs solution for next Tuesday And GFS brings the snow in early Monday evening. CMC has some rain Monday afternoon but snow on Tuesday. Both models give us decent accumulations. A long way to go but early next week looks interesting. Hopefully Euro this afternoon will show something nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: And GFS brings the snow in early Monday evening. CMC has some rain Monday afternoon but snow on Tuesday. Both models give us decent accumulations. A long way to go but early next week looks interesting. Hopefully Euro this afternoon will show something nice. need the EURO to back off on the amped up solution and still have to consider all of the ensembles - this cold air on the way means business ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: And GFS brings the snow in early Monday evening. CMC has some rain Monday afternoon but snow on Tuesday. Both models give us decent accumulations. A long way to go but early next week looks interesting. Hopefully Euro this afternoon will show something nice. Meanwhile the ukie and gefs want no part of it. Expect anything at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Meanwhile the ukie and gefs want no part of it. Expect anything at this point Yep seems as if we can always say that 5 days before a potential winter weather event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Meanwhile the ukie and gefs want no part of it. Expect anything at this point I wouldn’t say the gefs want no part of it. The idv have hits and the mean is over an inch between Mon-wed. Looks like they are focusing more on Tuesday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: need the EURO to back off on the amped up solution and still have to consider all of the ensembles - this cold air on the way means business ! How did EPS look? Prob better to look at ensembles vs any op run at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yep seems as if we can always say that 5 days before a potential winter weather event. This seems like a greater spread than usual for 5 days. Typically one model is on its own, with some agreement between the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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