January 2024

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not sure what happens in February yet. Going to depend on whether the MJO can propogate in 8-1-2

I think it dies in 6 or 7 based on trends last 2 days.  The GEFS/EPS is clearly both going down on amplitude now through 5-6.   The key then is for it to not re-emerge at all into 3-4-5 before mid to late March.  If it can just be dormant we'd probably have a good 4-6 week period with chances.

[snywx]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ensembles are way weaker so this storm isn't set in stone yet.

6z GFS caught on to idea of a coastal

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we may continue with the same storm track issues next week. Either a strung out and weak storm not able to pull in the colder air from the NW for coastal sections. Or a super amped storm like the Euro that draws in warm air off the Atlantic. 

My hunch is some blend of the 00z Euro and 06Z GFS happens.....historically in El Ninos we can count on the GFS in these types of storms to totally screw up the SRN stream but often can beat the Euro on the NRN stream...that said if you assume that now based on both models you can argue a SRN stream wave midway between both and a NRN stream that maybe digs less...your idea is certainly possible from that 

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's also too early to say next week looks like snow

IMO right now we  will start as snow in I-95 for a couple hours then  mix back and forth for several hours with LI and coastal NJ going to plain rain and then as the storm starts to intensify pulling in much colder air and everyone changes back to snow subject to timing changes as various models evolve this is definitely thread worthy and please don't combine with any other event....

[the_other_guy]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO right now we  will start as snow in I-95 for a couple hours then  mix back and forth for several hours with LI and coastal NJ going to plain rain and then as the storm starts to intensify pulling in much colder air and everyone changes back to snow subject to timing changes as various models evolve this is definitely thread worthy and please don't combine with any other event....

So last week Part 2.

 

Yes, no more combo threads please. That was a mess

[Nibor]

We’re not going to know anything for sure for next week until that weekend cutter comes through. 

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 57F shortly after midnight. Nearly 2 inches of water in the rain bucket this AM. Currently 47F.

[SACRUS]

Nov - Jan (so far) rain totals

 

EWR:
NOV: 2.91
Dec: 7.54
Jan:  2.88

 

NYC:
Nov: 2.95
Dec: 6.71
Jan: 2.67

 

LGA:
Nov: 2.77
DEC: 6.71
Jan: 3.10

[Stormlover74]

32 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Nov - Jan (so far) rain totals

 

EWR:
NOV: 2.91
Dec: 7.54
Jan:  2.88

 

NYC:
Nov: 2.95
Dec: 6.71
Jan: 2.67

 

LGA:
Nov: 2.77
DEC: 6.71
Jan: 3.10

And most of that since 11/21

[North and West]

How did everyone do regarding power and sump pumps?

 

[MJO812]

 Nice gfs solution for next Tuesday 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Nice gfs solution for next Tuesday 

weaker and further east is what we need apparently to get all frozen

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

weaker and further east is what we need apparently to get all frozen

Then the cold air comes pouring in after that .

[MANDA]

14 minutes ago, North and West said:

How did everyone do regarding power and sump pumps?

 

3.41" - Pump ran and did its job.  Did not lose power so generator did not kick in to save the day.  Pump does not run frequently here.  Except for Ida rains it rarely ran in the 5 years prior.  Lately has been running much more frequently.

[MJO812]

Cmc is a scraper 

[Allsnow]

Icon 2-4 

[donsutherland1]

There was a nice improvement on the 12z GFS and GGEM runs. All of the region picks up a light snowfall for 1/16-17 on the guidance, parts of New England see a moderate snowfall. The GGEM has a more robust solution. There still remains considerable uncertainty. Hopefully, continuity and consistency among the guidance can develop over the next few days.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is a scraper 

3-5 with low formation along the boundary 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is a scraper 

just like the gfs weaker and off the coast because there is no denying that push of arctic air

[NittanyWx]

Not a classic setup by any means this weekend, but the pair of storms this week is actually helping to pull this storm north, but not too far for a decent portion of the coverage area.  I'm optimistic with what we have on the table.  Thinking a fairly classic late day/overnight quick hitter and outta here.  Cold behind it, which aligns with the monthly view.

 

The only pause I have at this stage is the amp risk.  Less needs to 'go right' to produce snow with this one than the storm this past weekend however.

[winterwx21]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Nice gfs solution for next Tuesday 

And GFS brings the snow in early Monday evening. CMC has some rain Monday afternoon but snow on Tuesday. Both models give us decent accumulations. A long way to go but early next week looks interesting. Hopefully Euro this afternoon will show something nice. 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And GFS brings the snow in early Monday evening. CMC has some rain Monday afternoon but snow on Tuesday. Both models give us decent accumulations. A long way to go but early next week looks interesting. Hopefully Euro this afternoon will show something nice. 

need the EURO to back off on the amped up solution and still have to consider all of the ensembles - this cold air on the way means business !

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And GFS brings the snow in early Monday evening. CMC has some rain Monday afternoon but snow on Tuesday. Both models give us decent accumulations. A long way to go but early next week looks interesting. Hopefully Euro this afternoon will show something nice. 

Meanwhile the ukie and gefs want no part of it. Expect anything at this point

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Meanwhile the ukie and gefs want no part of it. Expect anything at this point

Yep seems as if we can always say that 5 days before a potential winter weather event. 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Meanwhile the ukie and gefs want no part of it. Expect anything at this point

I wouldn’t say the gefs want no part of it. The idv have hits and the mean is over an inch between Mon-wed. Looks like they are focusing more on Tuesday night. 

[ILoveWinter]

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

need the EURO to back off on the amped up solution and still have to consider all of the ensembles - this cold air on the way means business !

How did EPS look? Prob better to look at ensembles vs any op run at this juncture

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep seems as if we can always say that 5 days before a potential winter weather event. 

This seems like a greater spread than usual for 5 days. Typically one model is on its own, with some agreement between the others

[wdrag]

Will review again and at 8pm will probably start a thread.  Just need a little more time to review.   Have a day

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This seems like a greater spread than usual for 5 days. Typically one model is on its own, with some agreement between the others

Need to get the second cutter out of the way to get some clarity 

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that plus retrograding blocks are one of the most difficult situations to figure out for the models. 

So agree.  Retrograding blocks are a big wildcard and difficult for LR/MR models to get a good handle on.  I think the possibilities for next Tuesday are pretty much wide open at this point.  Would not expect a hint of clarity until 12Z Saturday cycle - maybe even 00Z Sunday.