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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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23 minutes ago, Powerball said:

My comment was more so focused on the "Winter is over" part of that tweet.

They are being flippant and are technically wrong (winter weather can certainly still happen well into March / April as has been pointed out), but I see the validity in the spirit of their statement in recognition of the broader pattern.

BTW, 2012 is funny in a way too because as much as folks talk about March, May was also fairly torchy (it just doesn't get discussed as much being that it sat right in the shadows of March) and both months sandwiched an April with a pretty hard freeze for many areas.

April 2012 was colder than March 2012 here at DTW. That's how insane it was above normal

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

And that one folk is right, no matter how sour you are. Going into March last year, no one expected the amount of snow most of us got, if you did you are lying. Not saying its likely but it is far from impossible.

Sour? What do I have to be sour about other than our lack of big dogs, which nothing you or Josh have stated proves me wrong. We do get some of our biggest snows in march but I'm ready for warmth once march rolls in. 

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

He just have unrealistic expectations for this location and loves to whine about them.

Again wanting a big dog isn't unrealistic expectations. I don't expect them every year.  It's like you, Josh, or anyone saying we can get good (6+) snowstorms in march. Sure it can happen but unlikely, especially this winter.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Me too. Im definitely interested in the insistence of the CFS and Euro weeklies (though the weeklies have been awful) on mid-late March cold because that matches up extremely well to many strong El Nino Marches (warm first half/cold second half, often a snowstorm). If it happens it happens, if it doesnt it doesnt. But not going to avoid discussion of it because its not what the masses want.

 

El Nino or not, the amount of times we have seen a big mid to late March snowstorm after a mild winter is crazy. 

It would be interesting to see a late March snowstorm. A few aspects of this winter can be pretty much confirmed now. The lack of ice on the Great Lakes is guaranteed to be well below average and maybe even record breaking. A cold snap in mid-late march would need to be historic in duration and temperature departures for it to budge and even then im unsure. 

Snow is the next one but still too early to confirm that for GTA-Rochester-Syracuse-Boston. 

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34 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Sour? What do I have to be sour about other than our lack of big dogs, which nothing you or Josh have stated proves me wrong. We do get some of our biggest snows in march but I'm ready for warmth once march rolls in. 

 

31 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Again wanting a big dog isn't unrealistic expectations. I don't expect them every year.  It's like you, Josh, or anyone saying we can get good (6+) snowstorms in march. Sure it can happen but unlikely, especially this winter.

 

25 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea no stats or facts you have stated disapproves my "dramatizations" of our big dog futility.

No one cares and you whine way too much about it. Furthermore I explained why it doesn't happen here and why it does for Chicago. You either don't care to read for comprehension or you are just being a troll who needs attention.

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3 hours ago, Powerball said:

My comment was more so focused on the "Winter is over" part of that tweet.

They are being flippant and are technically wrong (winter weather can certainly still happen well into March / April as has been pointed out), but I see the validity in the spirit of their statement in recognition of the broader pattern.

BTW, 2012 is funny in a way too because as much as folks talk about March, May was also fairly torchy (it just doesn't get discussed as much being that it sat right in the shadows of March) and both months sandwiched an April with a pretty hard freeze for many areas.

To be honest, I completely forgot about May. Knew 2012 was a very hot summer though. But also to be fair, sometimes Feb 2015 doesnt get its fair due for its cold departures which were similar to March 2012's warm departures.

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2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

It would be interesting to see a late March snowstorm. A few aspects of this winter can be pretty much confirmed now. The lack of ice on the Great Lakes is guaranteed to be well below average and maybe even record breaking. A cold snap in mid-late march would need to be historic in duration and temperature departures for it to budge and even then im unsure. 

Snow is the next one but still too early to confirm that for GTA-Rochester-Syracuse-Boston. 

Oh from a cold/ice perspective I expect nothing. Strong El Nino plus a raging pacific made this a terrible winter. There is nothing, not an April 1886 redux or anything, that can change that. Im just more interested in a snowstorm, which really is a threat any given March/April regardless of the pattern (and when I say a threat, I mean regionally...who and when would get a storm, if it happens, no idea). Top 3 worst winters of my lifetime would be 1997-98, 2011-12, & 2023-24, but I cant rank this winter until the snow is for sure over. I suppose I should put an asterisk for 1988-89 but too young to remember, and the grand stinkeroo of 1982-83, but I wasnt born til May '83, so I was developing throughout the winter :lol:

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Is there any hope for us here in the midwest or more of the same to be expected?     This is from the snowmonger Joe Bastardi!!!!   Monster stratwarm going on right now Lets see what that means for March 10-April 10 ( target response period)   GGybyg1XIAAY3Ui?format=png&name=small

Joe Bastardi is an energy sector guy who’s going to warn about sloshing bathtubs and impending cold even when there is no impending cold. Strat warming is a near non issue with a -PDO. The pacific runs the show. Nothing else matters (much).


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30 minutes ago, DocATL said:


Joe Bastardi is an energy sector guy who’s going to warn about sloshing bathtubs and impending cold even when there is no impending cold. Strat warming is a near non issue with a -PDO. The pacific runs the show. Nothing else matters (much).


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Energy sector guy?

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8 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I was looking forward to getting some good rain with storms next week, but the models have trended toward pushing everything to the east too quickly.  The Ohio Valley and eastern Lakes get storms, but farther nw we get nothing.

Not great to see but I will add the caveat that models, particularly the GFS, are prone to being excessively progressive at this range. If we do end up with a nice large wavelength trough, it shouldn't move that fast.

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read more, post less.

Been reading much much more than I post and thankful to many folks here like for sharing their knowledge. It seems the pacific does have a major bearing on our winter and the PDO has significant long term effects (albeit with debate). Please correct me if I’m wrong (but preferably with a little less snark )
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