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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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6 minutes ago, Build Back Better Winters said:

Above average doesn’t automatically mean warm, if it’s due to mild lows and not warmer than normal highs I definitely think it’s fair to not call it a ‘warm’ spring,

Thats a tough one. I get what your saying but above average night lows in spring also helps gets the vegetation and green up started faster. 53F low 45F is better compared to 60F low 32F 

Im up at 5am in the spring so scrapping frost off my truck and freezing would mean it skews my perception as well lol 

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5 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

wrong

 

 

Yep.  Spring 2023 was about as average of a spring as you get around here!!  Neither warmth or cool was dominate.  Sadly my best spring storms were late March/early April.

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Just now, Stevo6899 said:

Yea it was warmer than past Springs but still not as warm as I'd like. Hoping for more prolonged stretches in the 60s. 

Not trying to be a dick but you need to keep your expectations in check considering you live in Michigan.

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8 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

Not trying to be a dick but you need to keep your expectations in check considering you live in Michigan.

Im trying to be a dick when I say Ive lived here most of my life and we've had plenty of warm springs, Mr. born in 1998.

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23 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I forgot to ask the other day... Isn't president's day the 19th? 

Yea I saw him reference it the other day and thought to myself I don't think anyone was talking about the models that far out. Perhaps he's just excited for trumps return soon and wants to name a storm after him.

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1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Thursday’s precipitation event has mostly vanished imby. Full run GFS showing 0.10” of total precip. 
 

Still sitting at 0.13” of total precip in 2024.

Yeah it is becoming less and less of an event worth watching that is for sure!!  <_<

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On 2/5/2024 at 6:24 PM, Stevo6899 said:

Im trying to be a dick when I say Ive lived here most of my life and we've had plenty of warm springs, Mr. born in 1998.

You should work on keeping your temper under control, as I’ve done nothing to elicit such an emotional/defensive response out of you (my birth year has no relevance either). Anyway, the last few springs have finished on the warm side of average, featuring plenty of mild/warm days, so I’m not sure what the problem is.

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The early next week system gives some vibes of a potential northwest trender and a stronger system farther west. Just as a point of reference, the loading pattern looks somewhat reminiscent of GHD II, with a prominent ridge spike out west and positive height anomalies (good height rises) to the east.

There's been a decided trend the last few cycles of the GEFS of a stronger primary with better clustering near and west of the ensemble SLP mean.

Taking the 12z operational GFS, you'd want to slow down the main southern stream wave, which could allow for phasing with the northern stream short-wave to occur farther west.

[Edit: This isn't strictly a Chicagoland centric perspective. As things stand now with the 12z cycle there's enough support for a moderate event in portions of the subforum that have had very little snow this winter.]







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18 hours ago, rainsucks said:

You should work on keeping your temper under control, as I’ve done nothing to elicit such an emotional/defensive response out of you (my birth year has no relevance either). Anyway, the last few springs have finished on the warm side of average, featuring plenty of mild/warm days, so I’m not sure what the problem is.

Just joking all around. Im sorry my elicit, explicit response was too much for you. Springs lately have been crummy, cloudy, chilly and missing long warmth spells. All I said was I hope this spring is nicer and warmer. 

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I've been busy with other things, so haven't been able to focus on or put out any thoughts on the long range as of yet. Hopefully I'll have something out in the next day...

But, for now...

-I've seen some on social media trying to compare this upcoming period to what we saw in early-mid January. However, the setup on the large scale has differences when factoring everything in, so the outcome shouldn't be expected to be the same.
-Significant stratospheric warming is on the horizon. The Euro suggests this period of warming could be a full on SSWE, and could be the one that leads to the demise of the SPV for the season.
-The MJO appears as though it does not want to play ball, looking to stay in warmer phases and the COD during this period.
-This last two points regarding the SSW and MJO likely means it'll be more of a battle this go around.
-Based on the positioning of everything, temps will likely be more of a rollercoaster mix of below/seasonal/above.
-The pattern is likely to be active across the CONUS, with a W/NW flow. We'll see a constant parade of disturbances/troughs break off Bering Sea/Aleutian/Pacific mean troughing, then skimming across the CONUS.

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SSWE is still a dirty word to me because I blame it for about 10 straight weeks of freezing my b***s off going to to my car at 2:50 AM for work; and then murdering the :twister:season between the April 27-28 Dixie event and the June 16-18 Pilger etc. outbreak in 2014; with BA temps constantly getting pumped into the Midwest all through May from the endless Hudson Bay vortex. I don't understand the nostalgia for that year on this forum. I've since learned it's more nuanced than that, but it still gives me PTSD.

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2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Just joking all around. Im sorry my elicit, explicit response was too much for you. Springs lately have been crummy, cloudy, chilly and missing long warmth spells. All I said was I hope this spring is nicer and warmer. 

What you just described is a normal Michigan spring so it’s no surprise that’s the way springs have been lately. 

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