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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


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Long Range Pattern February 10th Onward:

While the first 9-10 days of February may be one of the warmest if
not the warmest on record, a mid month pattern change after
February 10th to a colder (seasonable or colder) and at least
somewhat active pattern is favored.

The passage of the aforementioned cold front toward the end of
next week will be the first signs of the impending pattern
change. Toward and after Valentine`s Day, mid and upper level
ridging will develop and establish itself near the west coast
and extend up to or just north of Alaska. The western ridging is
known as a +PNA (positive Pacific North American)
teleconnections pattern, and the ridging near Alaska is known as
a -EPO (negative East Pacific Oscillation). In response to the
upstream mid and upper level ridging (think a rise or bump in
the jet stream), downstream troughing (think of a dip or buckle
in the jet stream) will develop and establish over central and
eastern North America. Meanwhile, high latitude blocking in the
Arctic and North Atlantic (generally near Greenland) is expected
to develop, leading to a -AO (negative Arctic Oscillation) and
-NAO (negative North Atlantic Oscillation) teleconnections.

As troughing develops across the central and eastern US and
ridging manifests to the west and over Greenland, a seasonably
cold air mass from interior Canada should discharge into the
Midwest and potentially get "locked" in place. Meanwhile,
depending on the exact positioning and amplitude of western
ridging, an active El Nino subtropical jet (STJ) may continue to
cut underneath the ridging and feature associated disturbances
tracking eastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. Taken together,
the return of seasonably cold or colder air masses should bring
an attendant return of more regular occurrences of precipitation
to the general region, including the wintry variety, toward and
during the 2nd half of February. Stay tuned!

Castro
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Long Range Pattern February 10th Onward:While the first 9-10 days of February may be one of the warmest ifnot the warmest on record, a mid month pattern change afterFebruary 10th to a colder (seasonable or colder) and at leastsomewhat active pattern is favored.The passage of the aforementioned cold front toward the end ofnext week will be the first signs of the impending patternchange. Toward and after Valentine`s Day, mid and upper levelridging will develop and establish itself near the west coastand extend up to or just north of Alaska. The western ridging isknown as a +PNA (positive Pacific North American)teleconnections pattern, and the ridging near Alaska is known asa -EPO (negative East Pacific Oscillation). In response to theupstream mid and upper level ridging (think a rise or bump inthe jet stream), downstream troughing (think of a dip or bucklein the jet stream) will develop and establish over central andeastern North America. Meanwhile, high latitude blocking in theArctic and North Atlantic (generally near Greenland) is expectedto develop, leading to a -AO (negative Arctic Oscillation) and-NAO (negative North Atlantic Oscillation) teleconnections.As troughing develops across the central and eastern US andridging manifests to the west and over Greenland, a seasonablycold air mass from interior Canada should discharge into theMidwest and potentially get "locked" in place. Meanwhile,depending on the exact positioning and amplitude of westernridging, an active El Nino subtropical jet (STJ) may continue tocut underneath the ridging and feature associated disturbancestracking eastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. Taken together,the return of seasonably cold or colder air masses should bringan attendant return of more regular occurrences of precipitationto the general region, including the wintry variety, toward andduring the 2nd half of February. Stay tuned!Castro


In lieu of a longer post here, sharing an overview I put together for the office regarding the impending pattern change. There's a link in the PDF to a Google Slides presentation I gave before last winter that I don't think will work but I'm going to see if I can fix the permissions. Mid February Pattern Change.pdf


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On 2/4/2024 at 12:34 PM, Stevo6899 said:

Gfs/euro with something to keep an eye on for next monday/tuesday. Before that though, rare stretch of 5 straight days of sun here in the 40's and maybe even 50's.

Not anymore lol

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15 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The signal is there for a possible storm early next week, but models are all over the place from run to run.  The op Euro just shifted from the deep south back to the upper midwest in one run.

At least that way they can cherry pick model run and say they nailed it :lol:

Enjoying this week but looking forward to getting back to an active pattern.

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If we stall out in phase 7 of the MJO, it will remain warm and snowless. Sure there is always a chance of something sneaking in but right now its not looking too optimistic.
It's not gonna stay warm and completely snowless like it is now. The MJO isn't a pattern driver, it augments the pattern. It's not a guarantee of a snowy, active pattern, but at least one that looks to have temperatures more conducive for snow chances vs. literally nothing now.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

It's not gonna stay warm and completely snowless like it is now. The MJO isn't a pattern driver, it augments the pattern. It's not a guarantee of a snowy, active pattern, but at least one that looks to have temperatures more conducive for snow chances vs. literally nothing now.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Oh I agree, right now we are completely limited, there is potential, whether it is realized is still unknown. I would however like to move out of phase 7 to improve our chances.

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Oh I agree, right now we are completely limited, there is potential, whether it is realized is still unknown. I would however like to move out of phase 7 to improve our chances.
Ah, I got it, I misunderstood from the response. The NAO block does look like it could have more staying power this time, so hopefully that helps even if the Pacific pattern gets less favorable.

Would be interesting to look back at the observed MJO during February 2010. Looking back at that winter (I was still in NY), always surprises me that a moderate/borderline strong Niño was a colder than normal and snowy one. The record strong NAO block that winter appears to have been a major driver.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Ah, I got it, I misunderstood from the response. The NAO block does look like it could have more staying power this time, so hopefully that helps even if the Pacific pattern gets less favorable.

Would be interesting to look back at the observed MJO during February 2010. Looking back at that winter (I was still in NY), always surprises me that a moderate/borderline strong Niño was a colder than normal and snowy one. The record strong NAO block that winter appears to have been a major driver.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah that block that winter was incredible. Toronto got the short end of the stick so many times 

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Not anymore lol

Well when I landed home and checked the weather Saturday, it showed sun all week. I see it's changed to cloudy everyday lol. I will take the warmth though over cold and dry. As already stated, euro all over the map run to run for next weeks potential. At this point, I'm hopeful we get a warm march and april. It's been awhile since we've had a warm spring.

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39 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Well when I landed home and checked the weather Saturday, it showed sun all week. I see it's changed to cloudy everyday lol. I will take the warmth though over cold and dry. As already stated, euro all over the map run to run for next weeks potential. At this point, I'm hopeful we get a warm march and april. It's been awhile since we've had a warm spring.

Last spring finished above average…

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GRR is really questioning the Euro run

The ensemble mean of the upper air pattern has shown that the
streams do not split, and most of the energy slides across the
southern tier of the country, leaving the northern tier with a cool
and unsettled weather. The new 12z Euro deterministic run looks to
over-develop the upper system, which is a known bias of the Euro.
With this in mind, we will keep the cool temperatures in place for
next Monday, with low chances of showers.
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1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Well when I landed home and checked the weather Saturday, it showed sun all week. I see it's changed to cloudy everyday lol. I will take the warmth though over cold and dry. As already stated, euro all over the map run to run for next weeks potential. At this point, I'm hopeful we get a warm march and april. It's been awhile since we've had a warm spring.

With the El Nino breaking down, you might get your wish this year for a warm Spring (including a Morch).

Just have to make it through the first week of March for the warmer than normal pattern to hopefully settle in.

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20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I see no signs of a Morch lol.

Of course I use the term Morch loosely.

It should go without saying that a 2012 repeat is very unlikely, but I've seen a number of long term forecasts pointing towards a warmer than normal March.

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