Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

[lilj4425]

I’m right and everybody else is wrong. 

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Because I analyze every snow threat. I did this same exorcise with every Baltimore snowstorm from 1948 to now!  When they are good I analyze why. When they are bad I analyze why. And it’s hard for me to do that and ignore something I’m noticing which is things that used to work don’t seem to anymore as often!  But when we get a snowstorm I’ll be all over analyzing the reasons why it is snowing.  Think back. I was all over digging into looking at VV plots and moisture transport and instability and pinning down a deform when we got snow. The reason this is all I’m talking about lately is it’s not snowing at all dammit.  I’d much rather be analyzing some mid level VV plot to pin down a 3”/hr death band. 
 

Have I been wrong about anything?  Have we got some snowstorm when I was being a massive Deb about it?   I will be wrong. I’ve been wrong before. I will again. But recently have I been a deb or have I just been correctly assessing the situation and giving accurate analysis?   
 

Do you want BS everything’s fine or the truth? 
 

 

You are not a deb. You assess situations and give good analysis. I want the truth. I have learned a lot from your posts. Moar please!

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Because I analyze every snow threat. I did this same exorcise with every Baltimore snowstorm from 1948 to now!  When they are good I analyze why. When they are bad I analyze why. And it’s hard for me to do that and ignore something I’m noticing which is things that used to work don’t seem to anymore as often!  But when we get a snowstorm I’ll be all over analyzing the reasons why it is snowing.  Think back. I was all over digging into looking at VV plots and moisture transport and instability and pinning down a deform when we got snow. The reason this is all I’m talking about lately is it’s not snowing at all dammit.  I’d much rather be analyzing some mid level VV plot to pin down a 3”/hr death band. 
 

Have I been wrong about anything?  Have we got some snowstorm when I was being a massive Deb about it?   I will be wrong. I’ve been wrong before. I will again. But recently have I been a deb or have I just been correctly assessing the situation and giving accurate analysis?   
 

Do you want BS everything’s fine or the truth? 
 

 

You're misunderstanding me, man. I'm not saying don't talk about it. I'm not even complaining about that this time.

I was speaking specifically to your frustration/bewilderment with the excuses. You've expressed that, correct? THAT is what I was addressing. I mean, have you not expressed that in your posts on this topic? Lol I was just saying why that may be, not that you shouldn't be talking about it. Summary of my point: Logic doesn't always cut through emotion, and hence responses i.e. excuses!

And tbh, it's actually better we address what's happening (particularly if we have tangible examples of it happening in real time). Gotta acknowledge it to keep future expectations in check. (Does that sound like I said don't talk about it? Lol I know I previously bristled a bit, but not this time).

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, stormy said:

Psu:

I hear you, believe me.  Most of those comments were provoked by a person directing a snarky post toward me. In the future if snarky comments come my way, I will do my best to simply ignore them. Sometimes I believe we all take this board too seriously. Many feel compelled to clash with others when everything is not going their way.

 Yesterday, you said that the D.C. mean from 17 - 24 has been 6 inches.  My mean during this 7 year period has been 14". My mean for the previous 7 years was 31".

During the past several years I have noticed an often repeating weakness in the Lakes region that systems turn into. Lake runners and Miller B's seem to dominate which we hardly ever do well with. Miller "A's" seem to be rare. Others have commented about this.  Do you believe this is related to our snowdrought?

Yea. And part of that is cyclical. But it’s also being exasperated by a northern stream that’s more active and shifted north which are both related to warming and a result of the expanding Hadley cell circulation in the pacific. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Putting any faith in the NAM:

 

[Wxdavis5784]

12 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Putting any faith in the NAM:

 

Except if it is the first model to take snow away... Then we know its right.

[vastateofmind]

[TinGTown]

First time posting in the panic room.  Jebus, it snowed all day here in Georgetown (DC) but no flakes for almost 3 hours now.  Now its  a light drizzle of rain after no parcipatation for hours. What gives?  Am I done with snow?  About .5 on the ground.

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, TinGTown said:

First time posting in the panic room.  Jebus, it snowed all day here in Georgetown (DC) but no flakes for almost 3 hours now.  Now its  a light drizzle of rain after no parcipatation for hours. What gives?  Am I done with snow?  About .5 on the ground.

Yup, it’s over.  Expect rain the rest of the night and highs in the 60s tomorrow.

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, TinGTown said:

First time posting in the panic room.  Jebus, it snowed all day here in Georgetown (DC) but no flakes for almost 3 hours now.  Now its  a light drizzle of rain after no precipitation for hours. What gives?  Am I done with snow?  About .5 on the ground.

Fixed.

I don't know how you only have half an inch of snow and drizzle while everybody else in the DC Region has had 2 to 5 inches of snow.

Maybe the next weather system will give you a couple inches of snow.

[TowsonTownT]

[nj2va]

3 hours ago, TowsonTownT said:

That should be a picture of M Street in Georgetown.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

This is going to be the joke of the winter now, like the 2016 amped/Randytastic thing. 

[87storms]

Ngl, next week's temps look kind of appealing.  I want the next storm to be legit.  Not sure if that happens this year, but we have had some qpf producers (creeks are flowing nicely around here)...just gotta find the right timing.

[NorthArlington101]

It's over

[Paleocene]

we fail

[Weather Will]

Latest extended EPS control

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Latest extended EPS control

I've noted for a while...even when we get runs with a really good pattern...when I go look at the snowfall the mean indicates the snow is much further north than I expect given the pattern.  

[MDstorm]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Latest extended EPS control

The EPS control had also predicted the Cowboys and Eagles to appear in the NFC championship game this year.

[psuhoffman]

When I said we are now south of the "reliably snows in winter" line... obviously that line moves year to year and pattern to pattern.  But the best way to explain is this... it used to be that in crappy warm winters we were south of the "snows reliably in winter" line and had to luck into a fluke event.  But in colder winters we were north of the "snows reliably" in winter line and it would snow pretty regularly through the winter.  

Now... when its warm OMFG forget even getting lucky its no hope anywhere within 500 miles of us.  Then when we get a good pattern even...we still seem to be south of that line and needing a LOT of luck and trying to get the fluke storms that sometimes end up south of the line.  

We are 100% getting the results I would expect if we lived in like Greensboro NC the last 8 years or so.  The only question is does that continue.  

[Heisy]

I've noted for a while...even when we get runs with a really good pattern...when I go look at the snowfall the mean indicates the snow is much further north than I expect given the pattern.  

Expect the weeklies to change tomorrow since the eps kind of caved to the gefs and geps today, but I saw this on the control and it reminds me a bit of current pattern




.

[WVsnowlover]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When I said we are now south of the "reliably snows in winter" line... obviously that line moves year to year and pattern to pattern.  But the best way to explain is this... it used to be that in crappy warm winters we were south of the "snows reliably in winter" line and had to luck into a fluke event.  But in colder winters we were north of the "snows reliably" in winter line and it would snow pretty regularly through the winter.  

Now... when its warm OMFG forget even getting lucky its no hope anywhere within 500 miles of us.  Then when we get a good pattern even...we still seem to be south of that line and needing a LOT of luck and trying to get the fluke storms that sometimes end up south of the line.  

So basically we're the new Richmond (not counting the past few years where they've actually done decent).

[jayyy]

Latest extended EPS control

Nothing like a 1104 hour ensemble control snow map…

Why even post this? It shows 20”+ of snow in the Atlantic Ocean at the same latitude lol. It has 9.4” to our south but 2” over cape. This map is completely useless and will change every single day between now and hour 1104.

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Nothing like a 1104 hour ensemble control snow map…

Why even post this? It shows 20”+ of snow in the Atlantic Ocean at the same latitude lol. It has 9.4” to our south but 2” over cape. This map is completely useless and will change every single day between now and hour 1104.

In fairness it’s been unimpressive with snow almost everyday despite a great pattern. I’ve noticed it. It’s slightly concerning. Slightly yes but with taking note. 
 

We are about to end a 25 day period with a mean pattern that matches the mid Atlantic’s best snow patterns. But the heavy snow axis was actually from Milwaukee WI to Vermont!  And guess what the long range guidance kinda nailed that. Remember Ji complaining the snow means looked low?  They were right. The majority of the snow didn’t hit where we expected given the pattern. It was displaced north. 
 

Now the snow means are kind of saying the same for the next go around. We will see. But if we get two periods with a perfect mid Atlantic snow pattern but the snow hits 200 miles north of us that’s kinda troubling, and enlightening. We would have the answer though. Just not the one we want. 

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, WVsnowlover said:

So basically we're the new Richmond (not counting the past few years where they've actually done decent).

Basically we are the new Charlotte, North Carolina.

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In fairness it’s been unimpressive with snow almost everyday despite a great pattern. I’ve noticed it. It’s slightly concerning. Slightly yes but with taking note. 
 

We are about to end a 25 day period with a mean pattern that matches the mid Atlantic’s best snow patterns. But the heavy snow axis was actually from Milwaukee WI to Vermont!  And guess what the long range guidance kinda nailed that. Remember Ji complaining the snow means looked low?  They were right. The majority of the snow didn’t hit where we expected given the pattern. It was displaced north. 
 

Now the snow means are kind of saying the same for the next go around. We will see. But if we get two periods with a perfect mid Atlantic snow pattern but the snow hits 200 miles north of us that’s kinda troubling, and enlightening. We would have the answer though. Just not the one we want. 

Yeah we're gonna need to see this second period...given the backloaded nature of Niños. Us getting our first snowfall on Monday was right on schedule, wasn't it? Are we sure this isn't just the typical Niño? We could end up with 7-8 inches for this week....

But at the same time, what you said about the location of the tpv...basically you said that if the "boundary" were further south those NS waves could dig more to the SS, right? So it's not just bad luck?

P.S..........I don't like Hadley cells. Whenever they're mentioned it's always bad news, lol

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah we're gonna need to see this second period...given the backloaded nature of Niños. Us getting our first snowfall on Monday was right on schedule, wasn't it? Are we sure this isn't just the typical Niño? We could end up with 7-8 inches for this week....

But at the same time, what you said about the location of the tpv...basically you said that if the "boundary" were further south those NS waves could dig more to the SS, right? So it's not just bad luck?

P.S..........I don't like Hadley cells. Whenever they're mentioned it's always bad news, lol

Let’s let the rest of winter play out. I’m speculating of course. Even if we get a ton of snow I don’t think it negates the idea our snow climo is degrading but it at least means a Nino still works and we can still get a big season from time to time. But maybe we go on some 1958 or 1964 mid Feb to Mid March heater and all this talk is forgotten..until next year at least. 
 

 

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Let’s let the rest of winter play out. I’m speculating of course. Even if we get a ton of snow I don’t think it negates the idea our snow climo is degrading but it at least means a Nino still works and we can still get a big season from time to time. But maybe we go on some 1958 or 1964 mid Feb to Mid March heater and all this talk is forgotten..until next year at least. 
 

 

dude the snow maps in La Ninas were better.....unless there is a storm on the doorstep..for me...the EPS has shown constantly 2-3 inches over a 15 day period.....thats pathetic.

we should be 4-5 inch mean when there is a decent pattern....unbelievable 

[paulythegun]

Expect the weeklies to change tomorrow since the eps kind of caved to the gefs and geps today, but I saw this on the control and it reminds me a bit of current pattern




.

Get this to weatherpeens!

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Forecasted highs next Friday Jan26…