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you guys are pushing a narrative that is way out. Just like five days ago you were pushing for record warmth at the end of this week… That isn’t gonna happen.

Stop getting wrapped up in things that are 10 or 15 days away.there is no accuracy just trends.

A good prediction is that every month going forward is going to be a little above normal. Some will be very above normal. Some will be slightly below normal. 

 

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4 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

That's not warm..it's a a few degrees above normal if a 360 hr temp match is correct.

Usually -EPO's verify a little bit cooler anyway.. The Pacific high is a bit south of the classic -EPO position, but the models have been in heavy run-to-run flux and we are in an El Nino.. 

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Tonight will again be mainly fair and cold. Readings outside New York City and Philadelphia will again dip below freezing.

A warmup will commence early in the week. Dry conditions could continue until late in the week before showers or periods of rain could move into the region Friday night into Saturday.

The long-range guidance suggests that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal with the possibility of some shorter cool shots. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen. The final week of te month could turn cooler for a time.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues.

Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965.

The SOI was not available today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.237 today.

On November 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.342 (RMM). The November 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.456 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.6° (0.4° below normal).

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC should stay above freezing again tomorrow morning.


50385C3F-245F-4F07-AC88-423D58AC341D.thumb.jpeg.aad2953cdbdbe7e6d65c40417523156f.jpeg

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
318 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023

NYZ179-131400-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.W.0003.231113T0500Z-231113T1400Z/
Southern Nassau-
318 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing temperatures as low as 32 expected.

* WHERE...Southern Nassau County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and other
  sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&
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16 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nothing on the euro 

Yeah, continuation of the northern stream dominant pattern suppressing the southern stream. Our next more significant rain and wind event looks to come in a few days before Thanksgiving. Models are predicting a Great Lakes cutter track to our west. So probably a decent warm up ahead of the front. With a little luck we sneak in a dry Thanksgiving without too much wind for the parade. 
 

5AF50CE6-1D0F-4537-868A-CC2539B11C25.thumb.png.22dec20fc6380f2e31584457099971b8.png
1C392C41-0062-4046-B0DB-D880AF64C709.thumb.png.3a0304151bedfef8976887ea4762f932.png

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In review: EC 2m temps that we see are imo not hi res, and smoothed. So, I've learned in clear sky rad not be misled by the EC2M.  BOM did very well the past two nights lows, so the NWS BOM team has it right on what they factor into the urban BOM.

RGEM 2 M this morning I think were somewhat superior to all other modeling that we see in the non-urban areas... inclusive of the NAM/HRRR/BOM etc.  Glad it's over for all but NYC/LGA. 

Pattern ahead, still has opportunity for near 70F NYC Friday, but warmth beyond Friday looks modest. 

Pattern also seems to be shaping up to Nino wet east coast, or at least wetter than normal southeast-mid-Atlantic coasts as all ensembles from the 17th-27th have 1-2" along the east coast which is generally normal or wetter than normal. 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, continuation of the northern stream dominant pattern suppressing the southern stream. Our next more significant rain and wind event looks to come in a few days before Thanksgiving. Models are predicting a Great Lakes cutter track to our west. So probably a decent warm up ahead of the front. With a little luck we sneak in a dry Thanksgiving without too much wind for the parade. 
 

5AF50CE6-1D0F-4537-868A-CC2539B11C25.thumb.png.22dec20fc6380f2e31584457099971b8.png
1C392C41-0062-4046-B0DB-D880AF64C709.thumb.png.3a0304151bedfef8976887ea4762f932.png

All the models look much better by the end of the month 

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