WX-PA Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, looks like the familiar pattern of cold in the West and warm in the East. That's not warm..it's a a few degrees above normal if a 360 hr temp match is correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 you guys are pushing a narrative that is way out. Just like five days ago you were pushing for record warmth at the end of this week… That isn’t gonna happen. Stop getting wrapped up in things that are 10 or 15 days away.there is no accuracy just trends. A good prediction is that every month going forward is going to be a little above normal. Some will be very above normal. Some will be slightly below normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, WX-PA said: That's not warm..it's a a few degrees above normal if a 360 hr temp match is correct. Usually -EPO's verify a little bit cooler anyway.. The Pacific high is a bit south of the classic -EPO position, but the models have been in heavy run-to-run flux and we are in an El Nino.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 56 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Fantasy, use ensembles good agreement on warmth Ensembles have a warm thanksgiving. Strong trough west, ridge east. Good -EPO but all the cold dumps west due to -PNA Meanwhile already down to 34F before 7PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 Tonight will again be mainly fair and cold. Readings outside New York City and Philadelphia will again dip below freezing. A warmup will commence early in the week. Dry conditions could continue until late in the week before showers or periods of rain could move into the region Friday night into Saturday. The long-range guidance suggests that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal with the possibility of some shorter cool shots. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen. The final week of te month could turn cooler for a time. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. The SOI was not available today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.237 today. On November 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.342 (RMM). The November 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.456 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.6° (0.4° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Down to 36 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 5 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC should stay above freezing again tomorrow morning. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 318 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 NYZ179-131400- /O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.W.0003.231113T0500Z-231113T1400Z/ Southern Nassau- 318 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Freezing temperatures as low as 32 expected. * WHERE...Southern Nassau County. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Down to 36 already 34 here. Ewr 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Already below freezing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 29 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 27 and dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 You can see the UHI at LGA and why they wont get below freezing tonight. I like JFK though for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 45 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: 45 here Lol it's 29 outside the urban jungle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 27 in Suffolk. 58 here in Vegas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Current temp is 28 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 30 for my low with lots of frost. JFK hit 32 but as expected the park and LGA not even close at 36 and 37. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 10 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: 34 here. Ewr 39 Ewr 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 JFK 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 22 currently. Drove through freezing fog, I think, on our way home last temp from the in laws going past the Jersey City Res.; that or there was a very large fire nearby. Temps were at 31/32 and all of a sudden visibility dropped considerably; once we gained elevation, it cleared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 PHL 32 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 31 at the Jersey City mesonet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 27F. Blew right thru the forecasted low. Glad JFK and EWR did it. Im not surprised by JFK. That is the airport that radiates best due to its location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 16 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Nothing on the euro Yeah, continuation of the northern stream dominant pattern suppressing the southern stream. Our next more significant rain and wind event looks to come in a few days before Thanksgiving. Models are predicting a Great Lakes cutter track to our west. So probably a decent warm up ahead of the front. With a little luck we sneak in a dry Thanksgiving without too much wind for the parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 13, 2023 Author Share Posted November 13, 2023 In review: EC 2m temps that we see are imo not hi res, and smoothed. So, I've learned in clear sky rad not be misled by the EC2M. BOM did very well the past two nights lows, so the NWS BOM team has it right on what they factor into the urban BOM. RGEM 2 M this morning I think were somewhat superior to all other modeling that we see in the non-urban areas... inclusive of the NAM/HRRR/BOM etc. Glad it's over for all but NYC/LGA. Pattern ahead, still has opportunity for near 70F NYC Friday, but warmth beyond Friday looks modest. Pattern also seems to be shaping up to Nino wet east coast, or at least wetter than normal southeast-mid-Atlantic coasts as all ensembles from the 17th-27th have 1-2" along the east coast which is generally normal or wetter than normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, continuation of the northern stream dominant pattern suppressing the southern stream. Our next more significant rain and wind event looks to come in a few days before Thanksgiving. Models are predicting a Great Lakes cutter track to our west. So probably a decent warm up ahead of the front. With a little luck we sneak in a dry Thanksgiving without too much wind for the parade. All the models look much better by the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 38 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 26 here. High of 44F yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 23 here. Our coldest so far this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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