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Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?


WxWatcher007
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30 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

In no way is a blizzard more exciting than 100mph or even 120mph winds jmo

Trust me... I love the idea of the hurricane.... but.. I really don't want to worry about trees hitting my home or being without power for many days. Sandy affected friends of mine down on the shore and they lost everything. So... yes.. i love a good hurricane ( when I was younger I even hurricane chased when there was Bob that hit Rhode Island, it was exhilarating ). But not now

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15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 A bit more than that for the ensemble runs. Yesterday's 18Z EPS was the peak with ~70% NE US landfalls with 30% just for NE US excluding Maine. At least two other EPS runs since yesterday had ~50% landfalling in New England. The GEFS for NE US landfalls peaked at over 40% three days ago and also had a run over 30% two days ago. But since yesterday, it has been mainly ~20% or less. Thus the EPS peaked after the GEFS backed down.

That’s what I mean. The totality of the runs over the past few days did not show a landfall. Kudos to NHC for not waffling and sticking closer to the consensus with continuity. Live and die by the model runs. Another great example that ensemble means can be very helpful when there’s uncertainty. 

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7 minutes ago, Quincy said:

That’s what I mean. The totality of the runs over the past few days did not show a landfall. Kudos to NHC for not waffling and sticking closer to the consensus with continuity. Live and die by the model runs. Another great example that ensemble means can be very helpful when there’s uncertainty. 

Agreed. The past five days have averaged for NE US landfalls ~25-30% on the EPS and ~20% on the GEFS. So, under 25% for the two, combined. Also, the GEPS (considered inferior and thus not as closely followed) has had a significantly lower % than the GEFS. Many of those runs had no more than 1-2 hits (10% or lower). So, yes, the totality of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS suggested about a four times better chance of no US landfall vs a landfall. But of course, it is easy to hindsight. Next time may be different. Just going with the 1 out of 5 chance for a landfall, the next time may be one of those 20%. And we shouldn't forget that there still is a chance at a ME landfall with Lee.

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Today the models had the front a bit more robust slowing down and moving Lee a bit east on its approach, We will see if that continues on the 0z runs, I would expect some waffling to the timing and strength, Biggest factor is still the winds, Minor changes there as Lee looks to maintain on some of these runs its tropical characteristics a bit longer, Especially into the GOM.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Incorrect 

Time will tell. Model skill only increases as the event draws closer, and you'd need a pretty significant shift to get a truly impactful event.

I was contemplating a trip to eastern Massachusetts but it's probably not worth it at this point. 

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5 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Getting the conversation back on topic...

18z GEFS actually shows an increased spread in LP track, with a southwest and northeast biased "stretch" around the mean. About half of the GEFS members are meaningfully closer to the eastern New England than the OP run.

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Off hour runs almost always entertain…just like yesterday.  

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Just now, Quincy said:

A tighter look at the 18z GEFS at 78 hours shows about half of the members east of the mean. Those to the west are relatively tight. Only about three members bring the center close to Cape Cod. None show a landfall there.

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What do you think that means in terms of the half that are tight on sw lean?

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