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Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?


WxWatcher007
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Kudos to NHC for not flinching with the cone... there was a period yesterday when most ensembles and op runs and their trends were on the very left edge of their cone. Some mets (Dave Esptein most prominently) flinched.

Still significant lead time remaining in the scheme of tropical forecasting, and we've seen day-of 50-100 mile wobbles happen with majors, but what was always the most likely "correction vector" east is now increasingly supported by guidance today.

Hurricane models performed well. Euro / GFS debates? They swapped roles in the closest tracks at various times, so I'm not convinced one was truly better than the other.

In the camp of "I awe at severe like everyone on this forum but I don't want actual damage to my house", I'm relieved.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What do you think that means in terms of the half that are tight on sw lean?

The outliers are shifting east and there’s more support for a wide right turn, than a rogue landfall left. I’d stick near the mean. Of course it could waffle a little either way, but there’s a higher probability for this to hit NS than for the Cape to see landfall.

SREFs are going the same way. A few kept showing a left hook into SNE. Now those have tightened up to the east. 

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Why would the NHC have shifted its track dramatically west based on one or two model suites that were west? That’s why they go with continuity—with this stuff it’s better to have multi-day trends incorporated over the suite to suite whiplash. 

Even if there’s an (increasingly unlikely) move west through tomorrow you wouldn’t feel confident it were real until Friday. 

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21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Why would the NHC have shifted its track dramatically west based on one or two model suites that were west? That’s why they go with continuity—with this stuff it’s better to have multi-day trends incorporated over the suite to suite whiplash. 

Even if there’s an (increasingly unlikely) move west through tomorrow you wouldn’t feel confident it were real until Friday. 

Especially when it’s the guidance that pulls this stuff  on its own only to come back east. 

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52 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Kudos to NHC for not flinching with the cone... there was a period yesterday when most ensembles and op runs and their trends were on the very left edge of their cone. Some mets (Dave Esptein most prominently) flinched.

Still significant lead time remaining in the scheme of tropical forecasting, and we've seen day-of 50-100 mile wobbles happen with majors, but what was always the most likely "correction vector" east is now increasingly supported by guidance today.

Hurricane models performed well. Euro / GFS debates? They swapped roles in the closest tracks at various times, so I'm not convinced one was truly better than the other.

In the camp of "I awe at severe like everyone on this forum but I don't want actual damage to my house", I'm relieved.

This was always a trivial ordeal in my mind.

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1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

I'm still betting we don't have power for a bit here given the size of the windfield. Heck, during Irene in RI we barely sustained 35-40 for a few hours and were without power or cell phones over 8 days. We might stay with someone on the coast for the experience. 

Irene had multiple spinners  in the outer bands. Lots of sheared trees

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18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Good thing Maine isn’t part of New England :nerdsmiley:

:lol: 

They steal our snow AND our tropical!

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea potentially huge as it gets

High impact event up there and into Nova Scotia. Imby centric forum loses sight of that, but it’s going to be a rough ride for a place that doesn’t usually get this. 

Just now, Hoth said:

Yes. Although, to be fair, just about every tropical system save '38 is probably NBD in your hood.

‘38 probably wasn’t high end there either because of the northward track. 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This was always a trivial ordeal in my mind.

Yeah you were solid with this.

I think I opened with a 10% chance of SNE landfall last weekend iirc, but the trends of the past 2 days made me nervous (of home damage, not of being wrong!)

Surf will be spectacular regardless.

Hoping for sake of Maine and NS that this could tick even further east. 

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