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Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso


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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

62 here last night. 

The air 'smells' like summer, if that means anything to anyone. 

Yes!  I walked outside around noon and immediately noted “this is different-we crossed the threshold back into summer” and smell was a big part of it

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

We’re heading to Rome 9/19 and thankfully it won’t be mid summer when it was too hot to do anything as temperatures were will over 100.

We waited until the first week of November and the weather was perfect, rained one day in the two weeks we were there. Little cool up north but Rome and Naples were perfect.

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Goofus with the cane threat and then interior freeze. Not boring?

I suspect we're getting a upper cat 3+ type major along the MDR out of 95L ...  It's intriguing that all guidance agree on dropping off the would-be tempest, whatever form, around the outer Bahama bus stop at the end of the run.. 

The pattern above that/hence forth needs work.  The GFS idea is really just a climate parabola and not really set up by the climo features very well.  BUT, ...all being D9+ makes any analysis really futile.  

It's an interesting relay though - to me - because the hemispheric +AAM is rupturing around that D8-12 period, punctured by a new trough settling into a wholesale +PNAP sweep over mid latitudes.  The former delivers the cyclone west - if the latter can get the memo this would become one of those ominous early signal deals.

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