September 2023

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1970)
NYC: 97 (1895) - highest late season heatwave
LGA: 93 (1970)

Lows:

EWR: 40 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1947)
LGA: 42 (1947)

 

Historical:

 

 

1722: La Nouvelle-Orléans (New Orleans) was founded May 7, 1718, by the French Mississippi Company, under the direction of Jean-Baptiste Le Moyne de Bienville, on land inhabited by the Chitimacha. Four years later, a hurricane destroys nearly every building in the village, including the only church and hospital.

1815 - One of the greatest hurricanes to strike New England made landfall at Long Island and crossed Massachusetts and New Hampshire. It was the worst tempest in nearly two hundred years, equal to the hurricane which struck in 1938, and one of a series of severe summer and autumn storms to affect shipping lanes that year. (David Ludlum)

1904 - The temperature at Charlotteburg, NJ, dipped to 23 degrees, the coldest reading of record for so early in the autumn for the state. (The Weather Channel)

 

1975: On September 22, Hurricane Eloise intensified to attain Category 2 strength, and became a major hurricane of Category 3 status shortly after that as it turned towards the northeast. Several ships penetrated the storm's center during its passage through the Gulf. Hurricane Eloise continued to strengthen until it reached its peak winds of 125 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of about 955 mbar. It moved ashore along the Florida Panhandle near Panama City on September 23.

1983 - A thunderstorm downburst caused a timber blowdown in the Kaibab National Forest north of the Grand Canyon. Two hundred acres were completely destroyed, and scattered destruction occurred across another 3300 acres. Many trees were snapped off 15 to 30 feet above ground level. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Autumn began on a rather pleasant note for much of the nation. Showers and thunderstorms were confined to Florida and the southwestern deserts. Warm weather continued in the western U.S., and began to spread into the Great Plains Region, but even in the southwestern deserts readings remained below 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front in the south central U.S. produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail near Noble and Enterprise, and baseball size hail at Lequire and Kinta. A tornado near Noble OK destroyed a mobile home injuring one person. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Seventeen cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Devils Lake ND with a reading of 22 degrees. Jackson KY reported a record low of 41 degrees during the late afternoon. Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold air into the central and northeastern U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Indianapolis IND. Winds along the cold front gusted to 65 mph at Norfolk VA, and thunderstorms along the cold front deluged Roseland NJ with 2.25 inches of rain in one hour. The temperature at Richmond VA plunged from 84 degrees to 54 degrees in two hours. Snow and sleet was reported at Binghamton NY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2005 - Hurricane Rita reached the Texas/Louisiana border area near Sabine Pass as a category-3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. A storm surge of at least 15 feet flooded parts of Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes, where sugar cane crop losses were estimated near $300 million. An 8-foot storm surge in New Orleans overtopped the provisionally-repaired levees (from Hurricane Katrina damage) and caused additional flooding. A total of 10 fatalities were reported, and preliminary damage estimates ranged between $4-5 billion.

[CIK62]

GFS returns to way AN start to October and no rain.      Fickle Fickle Little GFS---How I Wonder Why You're An Ass.     That's a good +7.

 

[NJwx85]

18z GFS has multiple days in the low to mid 80’s for highs the first week of October.

[Jacob brooklyn]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

18z GFS has multiple days in the low to mid 80’s for highs the first week of October.

Say it ain't so

[donsutherland1]

Ophelia will continue to bring rain to the region into tomorrow. A general 1"-3" storm total rainfall is likely. Local amounts of 4" are possible.

Through 8 pm, rainfall amounts include:

Atlantic City: 3.11" (old record: 1.12", 1975)
Baltimore: 1.19"
Bridgeport: 0.09"
Islip: 0.27"
New York City: 0.90"
Newark: 0.82"
Philadelphia: 1.05"
Richmond: 2.43" (old record: 2.08", 1975)
Washington, DC: 1.35"
Wilmington, DE: 1.18"

Down South, Miami's record 56-day streak of 90° or above temperatures ended. The old record of 44 days was set during July 10-through August 22, 2011.

Gusty winds and rough surf will continue to impact the Jersey Shore, Connecticut Shore, and Long Island. Coastal flooding is likely at high tide. Temperatures will hold mainly in the lower to middle 60s tomorrow.

In the wake of the storm, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up somewhat warmer than normal, but noticeably cooler than had been the case on the guidance even a few days ago. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as September concludes and October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -13.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.237 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.8° (0.6° above normal).

 

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of September are averaging   61degs.(56/65) or -5.

Month to date is   72.2[+1.7].     September should end at   69.5[+0.2].

Reached 63 here yesterday at midnight(actually 63 all night).

GFS has 3" on Sun./Mon./Tues.

63*(99%RH) here at 7am-Rain.     64* at 9am.       Reached 68* at 1:30pm.      66* at 3pm.     64* at 7pm.

[wdrag]

Following up on the 748AM Saturday post above: NJ coast is possibly in a period of a two week repeated tidal flooding-serious beach erosion in spots, during the highest daily tide cycles.  More on that in an updated post here or separate new topic post coming around 9A which will include my 60-70% expectation of gale-wind-rain NYC subforum between Thu the 28th and Sunday Oct 1. Timing uncertain but my confidence is increasing despite model disagreement. If this gale occurs for NJ coast, it will be a more serious damage event than the current Ophelia event.  

Also, per modeled upper air weakness this is not the last of the potential for a tropical system to the mid Atlantic coast in early-mid October, beyond whatever possible hybrid might occur Sep 30-Oct 1.

[mob1]

We'll see if Ophelia's remnant low does indeed regenerate a bit to give parts of our region flooding rains. Models have hinted at it on and off, but for now it looks like a long shot. 

[SnoSki14]

Radar doesn't look so great for the region but showers could develop later. 

[bluewave]

On 9/23/2023 at 7:32 AM, psv88 said:

HVN needs to be checked…looks too warm 

It’s been really warm here this month. There are a number of stations in New England that are still close to +5. The upper 70s dew points earlier this month we’re off the charts for this part of the country.

 

[thunderbolt]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s been really warm here this month. There are a number of stations in New England that are still close to +5. The upper 70s dew points earlier this month we’re off the charts for this part of the country.

 

https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705905438200410159?s=42&t=9oYN55kJQkQ18l6qbtT9mw

[wdrag]

On 9/23/2023 at 7:48 AM, wdrag said:

Easterly gradient and tidal flooding Thursday Sep 28-Sunday Oct 1.  Multiple tide cycles have a chance of minor coastal flooding, with moderate possible on one or two cycles as tides runs high in this time frame. Modeling is trying to develop low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast with a fairly strong high over New England. Could be of future interest for tides/gale/rain for NJ/LI? 

 

 

Adding this for a a late week tease by the EPS

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Adding this for a a late week tease by the EPS

85 and sunny. No worries

[the_other_guy]

14 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

18z GFS has multiple days in the low to mid 80’s for highs the first week of October.

picked up on that extreme warmth at the beginning of September, but it has missed the consistent pulling down of cooler air with these coastal systems.

 

Now, this week shows more of that happening. It’s a pattern that, if it continues, is something I like going into Winter.

[bluewave]

Would be nice if we could continue this blocking into the winter. No real cool air available in North America with the much warmer background global temperatures and hostile +EPO on the Pacific side. So the trough has been unusually warm this month. Recent drop in departures since the 15th has mostly been due to clouds and onshore flow limiting highs. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

64 / 63 light sheet drizzle.  2.41 in the bucket.  Caught between the ridge in Canada and the Atlantic ridge anchored east of Bermuda.  Hung up, strung up  pattern - stagnant.  Overall wet and onshore flow look for limited sunshine and rain - very good pattern for the birds and lovers of clouds and rainy weather (they are out there).   Hard to clear fronts and cut off lows/ ULL will produce rain and unsettledness. 9/23 - 10/2.  Might be tough weekend for apple, pumpkin picking and putting the Halloween decoration up with this rain/washout and wind out and maybe next weekend featuring a strong easterly fetch with low cutoff.

 

Beyond that by time the flow comes around perhaps a brief surge of late season warmth then overall bias warmer into early October.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 

 

https://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/img/vis_nj_anim.gif 

 

[SnoSki14]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Would be nice if we could continue this blocking into the winter. No real cool air available in North America with the much warmer background global temperatures and hostile +EPO on the Pacific side. So the trough has been unusually warm this month. Recent drop in departures since the 15th has mostly been due to clouds and onshore flow limiting highs. 

 

So much for the strong to severe Nino that Snowman can't stop talking about.

We're clearly getting dual forcing here and yeah we're sort of lucking into a cooler 2nd half Sept pattern because everything else is blowtorching. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2017) 6 yrs
NYC: 91 (2017)
LGA: 91 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 40 (1950)
NYC: 40 *(1963)
LGA: 42 (1947)

Historical:

 

1926 - The temperature at Yellowstone Park dipped to nine degrees below zero. It was the coldest reading of record in the U.S. during September. Severe freezes were widespread over the northwestern U.S. causing great crop destruction. In Washington State, Spokane County experienced their earliest snow of record. Harney Branch Experiment Station in Oregon reported a temperature of 2 degrees above zero to establish a state record for the month of September. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1939: A thunderstorm on this day dropped 6.45 inches in six hours at Indio, CA. This rainfall preceded “El Cordonazo” or “The Lash of St. Francis”, an actual tropical storm. For the entire storm, which started on this day and ended on the 26th, four inches of rain fell across the deserts and mountains as a dying tropical cyclone moved across Baja California into southwestern Arizona. This storm was the second tropical cyclone to impact California during this month. A strong El Niño may have contributed to the activity. The tropical storm produced 50 mph winds over the ocean and estimated seas of 40 feet. September rain records were set in Los Angeles with 5.66 inches and 11.6 inches at Mt. Wilson. 45 people died from sinking boats, and harbors were damaged. Total damage was estimated at $2 million. Californians were unprepared and were alerted to their vulnerability to tropical storms. In response, the weather bureau established a forecast office for Southern California, which began operations in February of 1940.

1950 - A smoke pall from western Canada forest fires covered much of the eastern U.S. Daylight was reduced to nighttime darkness in parts of the Northeast. The color of the sun varied from pink to purple, blue, or lavendar. Yellow to grey-tan was common. (24th-30th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1956: Hurricane Flossy made landfall near Destin, Florida as a Category 1 storm.

1972 - Lightning struck a man near Waldport, OR, a young man who it so happens was carrying thirty-five pieces of dynamite. (The Weather Channel)

 

 

1987 - The first full day of autumn proved to be a pleasant one for much of the nation, with sunny skies and mild temperatures. Thunderstorms again formed over Florida and the southwestern deserts, and also formed along a cold front in the northeastern U.S. A storm spotter at Earp CA sighted a couple of funnel clouds, one on the California side of the state line, and the other on the Arizona side. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced large hail and damaging winds in the southeastern U.S., with reports of severe weather most numerous in North Carolina. Golf ball size hail was reported at Tick Creek and a number of other locations in North Carolina. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Forty-seven cities between the Rockies and the Appalachians reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 38 degrees at Abilene TX, 34 degrees at Jackson KY, and 36 degrees at Midland TX established records for the month of September. The low of 36 degrees at Midland smashed their previous record for the date by thirteen degrees. Fayetteville AR and Springfield MO reported their earliest freeze of record. Thunderstorms produced torrential rains in northeastern Florida. Jacksonville was deluged with 11.40 inches of rain, and flash flooding resulted in two deaths. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2001: A weak, F0 tornado passed in the sight of the Washington Monument. Soon after, an F3 tornado struck College Park, Maryland.

 

 

2005: Early on the morning of September 24, 2005, Major Hurricane Rita came ashore near the Texas/Louisiana border. 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're clearly getting dual forcing here and yeah we're sort of lucking into a cooler 2nd half Sept pattern

We can’t get cooler weather anymore these days without some type of extreme of blocking. The EPS has been correcting stronger with the block to our north. So high temperature forecasts have been coming down with so much easterly flow. 
 

New run 

 

 

 

Old run

 

 

[SnoSki14]

It's an October Forky pattern. No fall weather in sight. 

Huge trough out west with big ridge in the east. We may not even be done with tropical threats if that's the case. 

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's an October Forky pattern. No fall weather in sight. 

Huge trough out west with big ridge in the east. We may not even be done with tropical threats if that's the case. 

Where is the huge ridge, you mean the blocking?

[nycwinter]

what a beautiful weekend had the heat on i enjoyed the dark gloomy rainy skies...

[donsutherland1]

Through 5 pm, storm total rainfall from Ophelia included:

Atlantic City: 3.71"
Bridgeport: 0.24"
Islip: 0.89"
New York City: 1.79"
Newark: 1.61"
Philadelphia: 1.57"

Additional rain and showers are likely into tomorrow. The latest HREF suggests a stripe of 2"-3" additional rainfall is likely across northeastern Pennsylvania into southeastern New York State, including northwest New Jersey.

In the wake of Ophelia, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up near normal to somewhat warmer than normal. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -7.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.054 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5° (0.3° above normal).

 

[JustinRP37]

51 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what a beautiful weekend had the heat on i enjoyed the dark gloomy rainy skies...

So you complain about the heat all summer and then on the first cool weekend you turn the heat on? My place is still 68 but very humid. 

[nycwinter]

24 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

So you complain about the heat all summer and then on the first cool weekend you turn the heat on? My place is still 68 but very humid. 

i have had a the heat quite a few times before this weekend even in manhattan..

[JustinRP37]

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i have had a the heat quite a few times before this weekend even in manhattan..

What do you keep it at 80?! I can’t sleep until it is 66-68 

[lee59]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 5 pm, storm total rainfall from Ophelia included:

Atlantic City: 3.71"
Bridgeport: 0.24"
Islip: 0.89"
New York City: 1.79"
Newark: 1.61"
Philadelphia: 1.57"

Additional rain and showers are likely into tomorrow. The latest HREF suggests a stripe of 2"-3" additional rainfall is likely across northeastern Pennsylvania into southeastern New York State, including northwest New Jersey.

In the wake of Ophelia, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up near normal to somewhat warmer than normal. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -7.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.054 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5° (0.3° above normal).

 

Never expected September to end up below 70 after such a warm start.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Never expected September to end up below 70 after such a warm start.

It is a stunning turnaround.

[JerseyWx]

This has been an interesting year for turnarounds.  Cold shot in December, then a warm and nearly snowless winter.  Early heat in April, then a cool start to summer.  Hot start to September, and now a near normal finish.

The weather has been keeping us on our toes and guessing.

[psv88]

19 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

This has been an interesting year for turnarounds.  Cold shot in December, then a warm and nearly snowless winter.  Early heat in April, then a cool start to summer.  Hot start to September, and now a near normal finish.

The weather has been keeping us on our toes and guessing.

And yet incredibly boring