Hurricane Idalia

[friedmators]

VHTs going up everywhere.

[CoastalWx]

Finally see some signs of deeper convection wrapping around the center. Should this continue, you'll eventually see the center warm on IR imagery and clear out.

[CCHurricane]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Maybe this won't end up as a major H landfall. Fingers crossed! Perhaps their climo says that there are geographic factors that make it extremely difficult and that that will come into play for Idalia. Thoughts?

Alma (1966) and the Unnamed Hurricane in 1886 are really the only two storms with a similar origin / track. Obvious not statistically significant, yet both storms only maintained or weakened upon their approach to the area, neither strengthened. 

The current climo is of course different than the past, particularly the extremely water temps, so we'll wait and see what happens with Idalia.

[Amped]

The eyewall has improved quite a bit. There will probably be a decent wind increase in the next pass through the eastern portion of the eye.

[Prospero]

I keep waiting for some serious Idalia winds on SailFlow and right now south east Florida appears to have stronger winds than the Gulf Coast. Are those wind speeds due to Franklin?

[NJwx85]

Just got hit with an outer band here. Poured for 5 miniutes and gusted to about 30mph. Location : Disney 

[Rmine1]

Satellite representation showing Idalia starting to take off.

[WxWatcher007]

Second recon plane moving into the NE quadrant. Not sure what's up with the first plane as it hasn't transmitted data in a while. 

Folks near Tallahassee need to take this seriously. The 18z spaghetti models shifted west again and the 18z GFS holds compared to 12z. Looking at the ensemble consensus, more changes are definitely possible and it's unusual for the NHC to note it in a discussion approximately 12-18 hours before a landfall.  

 

[Hotair]

Eye wall is clearing on sat.  First time I see a respectable eye wall on Idalia. 

[Wannabehippie]

On the last couple of visible satellite photos, it looks like Idalia is trying to clear out the eye.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like a trio of rotating VHT. Should see some significant pressure falls and wind increases.

[Windspeed]

The next 12 hours are going to be intense. We're getting into a more favorable upper environment from this point until landfall that should continue to improve. I do expect the eyewall to take off tonight. It may not have time to enter into an ERC before landfall now, either. So it may very well still be deepening at landfall. I do think this will reach lower end Cat 4 as it is coming ashore. I'd like to imagine there's just not enough time for it to reach any maximum potential given the environment.

[MANDA]

Said this morning I was expecting to see an eye by sunset....Idalia is trying very hard to get there!  Overshooting clouds tops pretty much wrapping around the center for the first time.  CDO is rather small and compact though.

[WxWatcher007]

Note how the NHC track is still east of the model consensus...that is still ticking west. I think there's lower than normal confidence in where the center makes landfall. 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The next 12 hours are going to be intense. We're getting into a more favorable upper environment from this point until landfall that should continue to improve. I do expect the eyewall to take off tonight. It may not have time to enter into an ERC before landfall now, either. So it may very well still be deepening at landfall. I do think this will reach lower end Cat 4 as it is coming ashore. I'd like to imagine there's just not enough time for it to reach any maximum potential given the environment.

Look at the distribution of RI odds, particularly relative to climo. 

[wkd]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Maybe this won't end up as a major H landfall. Fingers crossed! Perhaps their climo says that there are geographic factors that make it extremely difficult and that that will come into play for Idalia. Thoughts?

I'm not a big believer in the idea that 'climo' plays any role in the outcome of any particular event, since it doesn't have any bearing on current synoptic setups.  I would love to see a statistical analysis of U.S landfalls using origin of a depression, SST, winds aloft, position of troughs and ridges and many other parameters. I will admit though that any tropical cyclone entering the Gulf will hit land somewhere unless it dissapates.

[beanskip]

85 W Longitude a pretty good measuring point for track. If it never gets on the plus side of 85, that will be good news for TLH. If it sneak across -- even for a bit -- that won't bode well. 

[Hotair]

That little eastward jog on the Sat loop has me a bit worried here in Tampa 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, wkd said:

I'm not a big believer in the idea that 'climo' plays any role in the outcome of any particular event, since it doesn't have any bearing on current synoptic setups.  I would love to see a statistical analysis of U.S landfalls using origin of a depression, SST, winds aloft, position of troughs and ridges and many other parameters. I will admit though that any tropical cyclone entering the Gulf will hit land somewhere unless it dissapates.

Well, not physiologically, but it does tell us areas that are perhaps more geographically prone than others...like Hateras vs the Georgia coast.

[SolidIcewx]

Starting to get into better radar range. Sorry for so few frames can only post up to 7.8mb

[WxWatcher007]

NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt. 

[SolidIcewx]

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

That little eastward jog on the Sat loop has me a bit worried here in Tampa 

Wobbles do happen in strong/strengthening tropical cyclones

[KPITSnow]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt. 

That should settle the question on it being deserving of 100mph. That’s close enough. 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt. 

That's due east of the center, first recon flight will make a true NE to SW pass soon. 

[BYG Jacob]

Category 2 confirmed

[KPITSnow]

One thing to keep in mind with Tallahassee. If it gets in the eyeball it will be on the western side which is usually good, but we saw with Michael what a rapidly intensifying storm can do when Panama City got raked by the western side. 

[MANDA]

Just now, beanskip said:

85 W Longitude a pretty good measuring point for track. If it never gets on the plus side of 85, that will be good news for TLH. If it sneak across -- even for a bit -- that won't bode well. 

TPC had forward motion at 050 degrees earlier today.  Latest advisory is a 360 degree heading, about 5-10 miles east of 85W.  Suspect landfall is is between 83 to 84 west around or just before sunrise tomorrow.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

That's due east of the center, first recon flight will make a true NE to SW pass soon. 

Yeah, was just about to post a correction. Thanks. 

[ROOSTA]

First feeder band descending on the hood, downstream gusts 40-50mph. How long will power stay?  

[Amped]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

That should settle the question on it being deserving of 100mph. That’s close enough. 

There was almost a 100% of it intensifying a lot over the next 6 hrs. Easy call by NHC to stay ahead of it.