friedmators Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 VHTs going up everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Finally see some signs of deeper convection wrapping around the center. Should this continue, you'll eventually see the center warm on IR imagery and clear out. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: Maybe this won't end up as a major H landfall. Fingers crossed! Perhaps their climo says that there are geographic factors that make it extremely difficult and that that will come into play for Idalia. Thoughts? Alma (1966) and the Unnamed Hurricane in 1886 are really the only two storms with a similar origin / track. Obvious not statistically significant, yet both storms only maintained or weakened upon their approach to the area, neither strengthened. The current climo is of course different than the past, particularly the extremely water temps, so we'll wait and see what happens with Idalia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 The eyewall has improved quite a bit. There will probably be a decent wind increase in the next pass through the eastern portion of the eye. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 I keep waiting for some serious Idalia winds on SailFlow and right now south east Florida appears to have stronger winds than the Gulf Coast. Are those wind speeds due to Franklin? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just got hit with an outer band here. Poured for 5 miniutes and gusted to about 30mph. Location : Disney 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Satellite representation showing Idalia starting to take off. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Second recon plane moving into the NE quadrant. Not sure what's up with the first plane as it hasn't transmitted data in a while. Folks near Tallahassee need to take this seriously. The 18z spaghetti models shifted west again and the 18z GFS holds compared to 12z. Looking at the ensemble consensus, more changes are definitely possible and it's unusual for the NHC to note it in a discussion approximately 12-18 hours before a landfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Eye wall is clearing on sat. First time I see a respectable eye wall on Idalia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 On the last couple of visible satellite photos, it looks like Idalia is trying to clear out the eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Looks like a trio of rotating VHT. Should see some significant pressure falls and wind increases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 The next 12 hours are going to be intense. We're getting into a more favorable upper environment from this point until landfall that should continue to improve. I do expect the eyewall to take off tonight. It may not have time to enter into an ERC before landfall now, either. So it may very well still be deepening at landfall. I do think this will reach lower end Cat 4 as it is coming ashore. I'd like to imagine there's just not enough time for it to reach any maximum potential given the environment. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Said this morning I was expecting to see an eye by sunset....Idalia is trying very hard to get there! Overshooting clouds tops pretty much wrapping around the center for the first time. CDO is rather small and compact though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Note how the NHC track is still east of the model consensus...that is still ticking west. I think there's lower than normal confidence in where the center makes landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The next 12 hours are going to be intense. We're getting into a more favorable upper environment from this point until landfall that should continue to improve. I do expect the eyewall to take off tonight. It may not have time to enter into an ERC before landfall now, either. So it may very well still be deepening at landfall. I do think this will reach lower end Cat 4 as it is coming ashore. I'd like to imagine there's just not enough time for it to reach any maximum potential given the environment. Look at the distribution of RI odds, particularly relative to climo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 36 minutes ago, GaWx said: Maybe this won't end up as a major H landfall. Fingers crossed! Perhaps their climo says that there are geographic factors that make it extremely difficult and that that will come into play for Idalia. Thoughts? I'm not a big believer in the idea that 'climo' plays any role in the outcome of any particular event, since it doesn't have any bearing on current synoptic setups. I would love to see a statistical analysis of U.S landfalls using origin of a depression, SST, winds aloft, position of troughs and ridges and many other parameters. I will admit though that any tropical cyclone entering the Gulf will hit land somewhere unless it dissapates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 85 W Longitude a pretty good measuring point for track. If it never gets on the plus side of 85, that will be good news for TLH. If it sneak across -- even for a bit -- that won't bode well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 That little eastward jog on the Sat loop has me a bit worried here in Tampa 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, wkd said: I'm not a big believer in the idea that 'climo' plays any role in the outcome of any particular event, since it doesn't have any bearing on current synoptic setups. I would love to see a statistical analysis of U.S landfalls using origin of a depression, SST, winds aloft, position of troughs and ridges and many other parameters. I will admit though that any tropical cyclone entering the Gulf will hit land somewhere unless it dissapates. Well, not physiologically, but it does tell us areas that are perhaps more geographically prone than others...like Hateras vs the Georgia coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Starting to get into better radar range. Sorry for so few frames can only post up to 7.8mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hotair said: That little eastward jog on the Sat loop has me a bit worried here in Tampa Wobbles do happen in strong/strengthening tropical cyclones 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt. That should settle the question on it being deserving of 100mph. That’s close enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt. That's due east of the center, first recon flight will make a true NE to SW pass soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Category 2 confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 One thing to keep in mind with Tallahassee. If it gets in the eyeball it will be on the western side which is usually good, but we saw with Michael what a rapidly intensifying storm can do when Panama City got raked by the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, beanskip said: 85 W Longitude a pretty good measuring point for track. If it never gets on the plus side of 85, that will be good news for TLH. If it sneak across -- even for a bit -- that won't bode well. TPC had forward motion at 050 degrees earlier today. Latest advisory is a 360 degree heading, about 5-10 miles east of 85W. Suspect landfall is is between 83 to 84 west around or just before sunrise tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, mob1 said: That's due east of the center, first recon flight will make a true NE to SW pass soon. Yeah, was just about to post a correction. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 First feeder band descending on the hood, downstream gusts 40-50mph. How long will power stay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, KPITSnow said: That should settle the question on it being deserving of 100mph. That’s close enough. There was almost a 100% of it intensifying a lot over the next 6 hrs. Easy call by NHC to stay ahead of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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